Dynasty GAAP Memo: Post-Mortem Rookie Re-Draft
If you have read my work before, you know I write in the form of “accounting memos” and apply accounting and finance themes to dynasty fantasy football. For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will supply background and then outline the applicable “guidance,” or accounting literature utilized. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic. To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”, a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” (and yes, my wife did come up with it).
Purpose
The purpose of this memo is to re-draft the 2024 rookie class and identify any assumptions or observations as a result.
Background
In business, there is a sentiment of a “postmortem meeting” after a big deadline or project. This meeting is a chance for your project team to identify the things that went well throughout the project and the things that could have gone differently. This discussion evaluates how effective the team was and explores if there were any learnings that could give rise to future efficiencies. In accounting, these are very common as each fiscal period has a deadline when the financials have to be closed.
For dynasty fantasy football, this is something I always like to do. For the emotionally strong individuals, you could do an annual postmortem and aggregate all trades you did throughout a season to see if your roster overall gained or loss value. The hope is that you ‘won’ deals more than you lost (because we all lose).
Another great place to do this is on your rookie drafts. I’m sure the owners who drafted Brian Thomas Jr at the 1.07 are thrilled with the pick and others who spent a first on Jonathon Brooks are kicking themselves. Back in April, I did a 1QB Rookie Mock Draft, which I would encourage everyone to quickly skim here. This memo is going to perform a ‘postmortem’ on that mock and see if there are any gaps in logic or observations that could help us avoid future rookie misses.
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the Industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based on real dynasty startups.
- Investopedia: World’s leading source of financial content on the web.
Analysis
This memo is going to revisit or look back on the first round of the rookie mock draft that I performed in April 2024. As a reminder, this is a 1-QB (not Superflex) and assumed to be a 12-team league.
Please see the post-mortem first-round results below:
1.01 Malik Nabers, NYG (WR)
Previous Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr, ARI (WR)
I always had Nabers and Harrison in the same tier. I saw them as a 1a and 1b in this class. One was a route technician and the other could only be defined as “explosive”. Nabers’ athletic testing confirmed what we saw at LSU. Through 11 games, he has 80 receptions, 819 yards, and 3 TDs (missed 2 games due to injury). Over a 17-game season, this projects to 124 receptions, 1,266 yards, and 5 TDs, which are surefire WR1 numbers. That’s while being attached to a very very bad Giants offense.
To me, his athletic testing should have been a factor that I more heavily weighted back in April. Per the chart below, Nabers’ testing was consistently in the 90th percentile and he paired that with an 86th percentile breakout age. Previously, I argued that when Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t run at the combine he had nothing to prove. When in reality, Nabers had proved it and I discounted it.
1.02 Marvin Harrison Jr, ARI (WR)
Previous Pick: Malik Nabers, NYG (WR)
Harrison does not fall far. I still believe and think that Harrison is on the Jaxon Smith-Njigba character arc. The same arc that saw Smith-Njigba fall in ADP post his rookie season after being the WR1 in the 2023 rookie class. He is now WR6 in PPR formats at 22 years old, which should cement him as WR1 in dynasty heading into this offseason. The positive for Harrison is that as a rookie, Smith-Njigba finished with 628 yards, which Harrison has already eclipsed in 13 games. As such, his launch point and floor are already higher.
No one in your league is selling low on Harrison, but if they are, I would be trying to buy. He is starting to get the targets and is averaging 10 targets per game the last two weeks. I would expect that to continue.
1.03 Brian Thomas Jr, JAC (WR)
Previous Pick: Rome Odunze, CHI (WR)
Admittedly, Thomas gave me Quentin Johnston and Jalen Reagor vibes (and to a lesser degree Terrace Marshall due to the LSU connection). Meaning, I project that Thomas would be a big, fast, and athletic WR who went early in the NFL draft but then flamed out in the NFL and never became fantasy viable. That bias led me to be too low on Thomas and is bad process. Since week 1, Thomas has been the Jaguars WR1 and has been a big play machine. He averages over 15 yards per reception and is on pace for 10+ TDs and should finish and be valued as a WR1 going into next season at just 22 years old. Not to mention his great athletic testing below and his 99th percentile speed score.
The sentiment here is to resist bias. Thomas has talent, opportunity, and draft capital. Those three factors present immense upside and are exactly why NFL teams consistently spend high NFL draft players on players like Thomas. Our dynasty teams should as well.
1.04 Brock Bowers, LV (TE)
Previous Pick: Caleb Williams, CHI (QB)
I thought Bowers would be a TE1 as a rookie. It’s so easy to climb that mountain in fantasy with consistent usage, which I expected based on being a top 13 NFL draft pick. I discounted too heavily the presence of Davante Adams and the average QB play. Now he is the consensus TE1 in dynasty.
During my April mock, I introduced the chart below that a player’s dynasty value should be tied to their talent, draft capital, and opportunity.
In hindsight, I think I will be adjusting this to be less balanced. To me, Bowers is the poster child to illustrate that draft capital and talent should be valued more heavily than opportunity, especially with rookie picks.
1.05 Rome Odunze, CHI (WR)
Previous Pick: Brock Bowers, LV (TE)
In this exercise, Odunze falls from 1.03 to 1.05, which isn’t anything he did wrong (more so what others did right). In my previous mock, I wrote “The opportunity will come. I expect a late-season breakout (i.e., Rashee Rice, Amon-Ra St. Brown)”. The kickoff of that breakout might have started in week 14 when he finished as WR13 overall fueled by 2 TDs.
Meaning, he is big, fast, and good at playing WR. Steal him at 1.05.
1.06 Ladd McConkey, LAC (WR)
Previous Pick: Ladd McConkey, LAC (WR)
McConkey always seemed like he would be a hit to me. With Justin Herbert at the helm for the Chargers, his draft capital, and how he won on the field with his routes, I thought he wouldn’t miss and would have fantasy-viable seasons. I got that right. I just didn’t expect the consistency right away.
If Thomas is a case study on why you “swing for the fences”, McConkey is a case for “base hits” with high floors. I don’t know if he will ever have a WR1 finish, but I do think he will have several top-24 finishes. That high floor is something to chase with mid-firsts.
Also, he highlights that players can have better production in the NFL than college. McConkey has already surpassed his college receiving yard high in his rookie campaign and is on pace to eclipse 1,000 yards.
1.07 Jayden Daniels, WAS (QB)
Previous Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (WR)
I thought Daniels would produce and have a high ceiling. I just thought we would get Kyler Murray as opposed to Lamar Jackson. The ending result is likely something in between but is still fantasy gold. He currently is QB6 and widely considered a top 3 dynasty QB (potentially even 1) across the community at just 23 years old.
The takeaway for me is that it is very hard for pocket passers to be elite fantasy producers. You need at least something on the ground in today’s fantasy landscape. As dynasty managers, we should chase that rushing ability.
At QB1 overall value, I could see him climbing up to #5. The only drawback being his smaller frame that has already popped up.
1.08 Xavier Worthy, KC (WR)
Previous Pick: Xavier Worthy, KC (WR)
No change or observations here. Worthy still has electrifying speed and landed in a great offense that is manufacturing opportunities for the Texas star. If owners are souring, I would be inquiring. I expected a rookie “ramp up” and he is on pace to surpass the 600-yard floor in 2024 which indicates future fantasy success.
There have also been a couple of chunk plays where Worthy has stepped out of bonds by inches. If those were capitalized on, his numbers could look widely different.
1.09 Bucky Irving, TB (RB)
Previous Pick: Keon Coleman, BUF (WR)
Irving has been a fantasy star thus far this season after being selected in the late 4th round of the NFL draft. He is currently RB19 in scoring with an elite efficiency of 5.4 yards per carry. He is very reminiscent of a young Alvin Kamara in a lot of ways. The catch is that Irvin has only had three games this season with a 50% snap share with two being week 12 and week 14. As such, I would expect his usage to go up in the future.
The observation here is that we should continue to spend draft capital on fourth round running backs. The hit rate isn’t necessarily super high, but every year, one of them finds success and skyrockets in value. Enough so to justify the expenditure in the late third and fourth rounds of rookie drafts.
1.10 Caleb Williams, CHI (QB)
Previous Pick: Jonathon Brooks, CAR (RB)
I ended Williams slide here as he falls from 1.04 to 1.11. I picked up a couple of Williams shares during his week 9 and week 10 performances where he had less than 6 points in each contest (depending upon the scoring format). Since then, he has rebounded with two QB1 performances (four on the season).
I expect for his supporting cast (minus potentially Keenan Allen) to be back in 2025 with better coaching and a better offensive scheme. I’ve also been surprised with his scrambling ability thus far with over 400 yards on the season. With that, I think Williams rebounds and is a value at the 1.11.
1.11 Tyrone Tracy Jr, NYG (RB)
Previous Pick: Jayden Daniels, WAS (QB)
Before going to Mizzou, I grew up an Iowa Hawkeye fan. Even knowing and watching Tracy in college, I didn’t expect his breakout. Another great example of why we need to pay attention and swing at later round RBs, especially when they have elite testing numbers like Tracy. The Giants have so many needs, I would expect Tracy to retain his featured back role into 2025 if he doesn’t continue to fumble.
1.12 Keon Coleman, BUF (WR)
Previous Pick: Trey Benson, ARI (RB)
Coleman falls from the 1.09 to 1.12, which feels fair given the success and upside of the players above (besides maybe Worthy). He has missed the past four games due to injury, but he does have 3 TDs and a 100-yard game on his resume and is still connected to Josh Allen.
Conclusion:
As mentioned above, the purpose of this exercise was to perform a post-mortem, or lookback, on our rookie picks to identify any meaningful observations. With the hope of avoiding repeating mistakes and maximizing value with our rookie picks. Based on the exercise above, there are some of my takeaways:
- Athletic Testing Matters: Marvin Harrison Jr. did not run or test at the combine. The narrative was that he did not need to, but the absence of a data point is something we should consider in order to mitigate risk. With that in mind, most of us would have gone Nabors.
- Talent & Draft Capital > Opportunity: We all know this, but sometimes we get cute and try to win. Keon Coleman was slightly over-drafted this year, based heavily on the vacated targets in Buffalo.
- Keep Swinging: For large fast receivers, dynasty managers should ignore bias and keep taking shots if the stars align (draft capital, athletic testing, and historical production). The upside of players like Brian Thomas Jr. is worth the risk and is exactly why the NFL keeps investing in that archetype.
- Scrambling > Passing: When selecting QBs, rushing ability is a difference-maker for fantasy. You might get Justin Fields, but you also could get Jayden Daniels.
- Singles are Okay: If you think a player will hit (even if the ceiling isn’t as high), draft them.
- Running Back Darts: Every year there are later-round running backs that break out. Instead of drafting 3rd round receivers, the success rate is higher with running backs. This year’s examples are Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy.
“Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.”
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Post-Mortem Rookie Re-Draft - December 12, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Buying The WR Dip Or Falling Knife? - November 14, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Sam Darnold’s Recession and Recovery - October 3, 2024
