Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week Four

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week Four QB1s (top 12 scorers)

The Colts welcomed rookie Anthony Richardson back to the lineup and he picked up right where he left off before his Week Two concussion. Richardson passed for two touchdowns and ran for another as he put together his best all-around game of his very early career.

The story of the week at the quarterback position had to be Justin Fields, who got his team out to a three-touchdown lead before the Broncos came storming back. Fields put together 335 passing yards and threw for four touchdowns, both firsts in his career. While Fields played much better than he had in the first three games of the year, the Broncos pitiful defense has to be considered. Oh, and Fields still isn’t running, which is very bad news for fantasy managers. Last year, over 54% of Fields’ fantasy points came via the run. This year, that number is down to 29%, which has deflated his weekly upside.

Season-Long QB1s

Josh Allen’s huge performance last week, which included five total touchdowns, boosted his season-long rank from QB10 to QB2. This is more in line with what we expect to see from Allen. Kirk Cousins struggled for the first time this season, finishing as the QB23 on the week. That dropped him from his previous QB2 rank to the QB7 spot.

Other fallers in Week Four include Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson. Brock Purdy and Richardson moved back inside the QB1 range with their Week Four performances.

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

As you can see, teams remain tightly packed with a quarter of the league tied with three QB1 games allowed through the first month. On the other side, nine teams have yet to allow a single QB1 game.

Let’s focus on fantasy points allowed to the position. After a terrible past two weeks, the Broncos top this list and are now releasing veteran defenders. Denver is allowing an average of over 29 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and this week’s matchup against the suddenly solid Zach Wilson. His performance against the Chiefs last week could be a fluke but Wilson is worth a gamble against the league’s worst defense.

Other teams allowing more than 25 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks include the bye-week Chargers, the Colts (vs. Ryan Tannehill), and Chicago (vs. Sam Howell.)

Six teams are surrendering less than 16 weekly fantasy points to the quarterback position. These teams are: Carolina (vs. Jared Goff), Buffalo (vs. Trevor Lawrence), Dallas (vs Brock Purdy), Cleveland (BYE), Baltimore (vs. Kenny Pickett), and New England (vs. Derek Carr.)

Running Backs

Week Four RB1s (top 12 scorers)

Christian McCaffrey dominated the Cardinals, rushing for three scores and catching another along with more than 170 total yards. McCaffrey scored more than 48 fantasy points and wasn’t even among the top stories of the week. We have truly been spoiled by his talent.

David Montgomery returned to the Lions roster and racked up fantasy points against the rival Packers on Thursday night. Montgomery scored three times and drove Jahmyr Gibbs fantasy managers crazy. With a banged-up Broncos backfield, undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin stepped in and stepped up. McLaughlin totaled over 100 yards and a touchdown and could see even more playing time in Week Five.

Season-Long RB1s

The two biggest stories of the early season are running backs Kyren Williams and De’Von Achane. Each player finished as top-five fantasy backs in Week Four and climbed two spots in the season-long ranks. Williams has been a workhorse, leading the league with an 81.5% snap rate. Achane took a larger share of the Dolphins backfield, though that could’ve been due to the negative game script Miami was in for much of the contest. We’ll know more about this backfield after their game this coming week against the Giants, though the rookie is clearly not going away.

James Conner, Travis Etienne, and Jerome Ford fell out of the top twelve this week, replaced by D’Andre Swift, Montgomery, and Derrick Henry.

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

The Bears and Broncos have been the worst run defenses when it comes to fantasy football measures. The Bears have allowed a league-high five RB1 games while the Broncos give up more than 43 fantasy points per game, more than ten points per game above any other. This week, the Broncos face Breece Hall and the Jets, while the Bears meet Brian Robinson. The matchup could even be juicy enough to get Antonio Gibson in some fantasy lineups.

Other matchups to target include the Panthers (vs. Montgomery/Gibbs) and Packers (vs. Josh Jacobs.)

The Cowboys (vs. McCaffrey), Titans (vs. Jonathan Taylor?), and Falcons (vs. Dameon Pierce) are the three teams allowing fewer than 14 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs. A six-pack of teams has yet to allow a single RB1 game this year, including Atlanta. Others in this group are the Lions (vs. Miles Sanders), Chiefs (vs. Alexander Mattison), Saints (vs. Rhamondre Stevenson), and Eagles (vs. Kyren Williams.)

Wide Receivers

Week Four WR1s (top 12 scorers)

AJ Brown almost single-handedly gave the game away to the Commanders thanks to an unsportsmanlike penalty, but Philly held on in overtime and Brown produced his first huge game of the year. Finishing with a 9/175/2 line, Brown topped the list on a high-scoring week for wideouts.

Rookie Michael Wilson also scored a pair of touchdowns as he emerged as a real threat for Arizona, who continues to play much better than anyone expected. Although Marquise Brown should continue to lead the Cardinals in targets, Wilson has shown to be a valuable asset and one dynasty managers should consider on a weekly basis.

Season-Long WR1s

A week ago, Adams was not among the top twelve fantasy receivers and now he’s all the way up to WR4. Expect him to remain on this list for the remainder of the season. Allen is now the overall WR1, narrowly edging out Tyreek Hill. That duo has a massive lead over Justin Jefferson and the rest of the pack, averaging nearly five more fantasy points per contest.

Along with Adams, other players joining the WR1 group this week include Deebo Samuel, Adam Thielen, Amon-Ra St. Brown. They replace Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb, and Josh Reynolds.

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

Justin Jefferson was the 1.01 in both redraft and dynasty leagues this offseason so it is fitting that he would ascend to the WR1 spot after the first month. Jefferson is the only receiver who has finished as a top-12 fantasy scorer each week of the young season and he finally broke through with a multiple touchdown performance, rising from WR3 to the top spot.

Nico Collins and Brown both enter the WR1 range, as Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman, and Chris Olave fell off the list. Veterans Mike Evans and Davante Adams each missed a portion of their Week Four game with an injury, which caused them each to slide down the ranks.

Tight Ends

Week Four TE1s (top 12 scorers)

With Fields balling out for the Bears, tight end Cole Kmet was among the chief beneficiaries, scoring twice and producing the best game of his career to secure the TE1 spot for the week. It was uncertain if Browns tight end David Njoku would suit up following a home accident that resulted in burns to his face, but he still led the team in receiving and notched his first TE1 game of the season.

Season-Long TE1s

The top of the season-long list remains the same with the former Lion and current Lion tight ends leading the way. Kmet’s huge game moved him from outside of the TE1 group last week all the way to TE3. Yes, that says more about this year’s tight end production than it does for Kmet.
Veteran Zach Ertz also rejoined the top-twelve group while disappointing George Kittle and injured Luke Musgrave fell off the list.

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

The Bengals have allowed four TE1 games already, which could boost Ertz’s Week Five outlook. Cincinnati is actually only sixth on the list of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends though. Teams giving up more than the Bengals include the Jets (vs. Adam Trautman), Lions (vs. Hayden Hurst), Eagles (vs. Tyler Higbee), Falcons (vs. Dalton Schultz), and Jaguars (vs. Dawson Knox/Dalton Kincaid.)

The Bills (vs. Evan Engram), Panthers (vs. Sam LaPorta), Cowboys (vs. Kittle), and Titans (vs. Kylen Granson) have yet to give up a TE1 game. Engram, LaPorta and probably even Kittle should remain locked into lineups, but don’t be surprised if these players don’t reach their season averages this week.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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