January Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight End and Quarterback
The first ADP update of the 2023 season is here. I am here to discuss each position and pick out risers or fallers who stand out. The articles will speculate on what to expect moving forward. This initial article will not have the 2023 rookies as they were not included in January 2023 ADP.
I will have additional articles as the off-season progresses with updated ADP. For now, let’s look at January’s (2023) ADP. The ADP was from 1QB mock drafts.
This article will focus on tight ends and quarterbacks.
Introduction
When a startup draft kicks off, you will have to implement a strategy. There are multiple strategies to choose from. To keep it simple, we can work off the premise of having a win-now or first-year punt strategy. There is no right or wrong strategy. The goal is to win championships, not necessarily hoard young talent.
If you want to win now, then you draft the aging players. If you want the first-year punt then you draft younger, hopefully proven, players to build around.
Tight End
Having a start-and-forget tight end is ideal for your rosters. The perfect example is Travis Kelce. He creates arguably the best positional advantage across your leagues. This strategy will help keep the number of tight ends rostered on your team to a minimum.
Here is the updated tight end ADP:
Tight End Risers
You will naturally see first-year tight ends make a massive jump in ADP. We do not have rookie ADP data in January. The likes of Greg Dulcich, Trey McBride, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Daniel Bellinger, and Cade Otton are notable first-year tight end risers. These make sense given the perceived notion of rookie tight ends.
David Njoku, CLE: TE13, ADP 122.33
We have known Njoku is talented. Many people think the Browns have underutilized his talents. The addition of Deshaun Watson may influence Njoku drafters. His ADP changed from 209.50 to 122.33. For an 11th-round pick who may be a top target on the team (currently), there might be value in this selection.
Dallas Goedert, PHI: TE6, ADP 72.83
Following the AJ Brown trade, it was speculated Goedert would take a production hit. Brown joined DeVonta Smith as a lethal one-two punch for Jalen Hurts. However, the 2022 season proved Goedert can still be involved and his ADP reflects just that. Despite just turning 28 years old, Goedert is presumed to provide immediate production for the foreseeable future. He went from 82.17 to 72.83.
Gerald Everett, LAC: TE21, ADP 159.67
Concluding a career year, Everett has seen a massive ADP swing. In one year, his ADP rose from 201.50 to 159.67. It should be noted he is due a contract. If he does leave the Chargers, then it does seem he is a volatile asset. For a 14th-round selection, it may not be the worst.
Tight End Fallers
When we want to look at fallers, we need to see significant change. Cole Kmet dropped four ADP spots, technically making him a faller, but that is minimal. Kyle Pitts is an example I wanted to note. He was a first-round pick a year ago but has fallen from pick eight to pick 18.
Like any other position age may influence drafting. Darren Waller’s ADP fell from 56.00 to 97.50. Age combined with injuries will often result in this change.
Noah Fant, SEA: TE18, ADP 148.33
Once viewed as a dynasty TE1, Fant found himself on a new team for the 2022 season. An athletic tight end boosted his appeal, but his development has come full circle for drafters. Fant has 40 receptions in every season, he just has yet to be a featured piece of an offense.
His ADP fell from 89.17 to 148.33. It is a massive change but it seems this is the reality for Fant – a tight end who will have a big game but the variability warrants concern when starting him.
Mike Gesicki, MIA: TE20, ADP 156.33
When the Dolphins made a head coaching change to Mike McDaniel it was assumed Gesicki’s skill set would not translate to the presumed scheme. Concluding the season, he had his second-worst season in his career – after three straight 500-yard seasons and two straight 700-yard seasons. His ADP dropped in one year from 110 .67 to 156.33.
He is also due a contract and may find himself in a better situation in 2023.
Dawson Knox, BUF: TE12, ADP 120.00
People love when their receivers are tied to a franchise quarterback, like Josh Allen. I think Knox and Allen even play video games together. However, Knox is your typical fringe TE1 finish player given his red zone production. He has yet to surpass 50 receptions in a regular season. His ADP fell from 101.83 to 120.00.
He is the poster boy for your touchdown-dependent tight end start. This is why tight end premium formats are utilized.
Additional Fallers (2022 to 2023)
- Tyler Higbee: 157.83 to 199.17
- Dalton Schultz: 99.00 to 107.67
Tight End Discussion
I simply cannot stress how important it is to solidify your dynasty rosters with a ‘start and forget’ tight end. If you are unable to roster Kelce, then it is best to have a clear mind when attacking the position. Fant is the prime example of a tight end who had an inflated price despite concerns with his ability to play the position
You will need to weigh the opportunity cost of selecting a tight end in the early-mid rounds of your startup drafts. You may find yourself reaching when additional value is available. It is easy to utilize hindsight to confirm or reject selections.
Let’s move on to quarterbacks.
Quarterback ADP
This is 1QB startup ADP. To be upfront with you all, my mind works with superflex value. With this being said, I feel the understanding of 1QB value is, well, face value. There are a handful of quarterbacks who can give you 20+ PPG. We can generally think any starting quarterback will be fine, but those few difference-makers warrant the selection.
The earliest quarterback (Josh Allen) has an average ADP of 29.67. Ten quarterbacks were selected within the first 100 selections.
Quarterback Risers
Obviously, this ADP was from single-quarterback leagues.
Daniel Jones, NYG: QB14, ADP 133.67
Brian Daboll turned this franchise around, subsequently rising Jones’ ADP from 234.83 to 138.67. He finished as the QB9 and had 22 total touchdowns, with seven coming via rushing. It seems people are buying into the fact he could be the franchise quarterback with the Giants.
If this is true and the team is able to surround him with talent, then it does seem Jones would be a steal.
Geno Smith, SEA: QB16, ADP 147.17
A popular nomination for comeback player of the year, Smith finished as the QB5. He proved the doubters wrong filling in for Russell Wilson. He did not have an ADP from a year ago. He is 32 years old and there are rumblings he could be the starting quarterback for Seattle for the foreseeable future. I am unsure what to believe in. It does seem like Smith provides Seattle with an opportunity to build a foundation before the team goes all-in on a franchise quarterback.
Additional risers (2022 to 2023)
- Tua Tagovailoa (150.5 to 98.67)
- Jared Goff (239.00 to 178.50)
- Kenny Pickett (210.17 to 166.67)
Quarterback Fallers
It would be easy to talk about Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, or Aaron Rodgers, but they were obvious fallers.
Kyler Murray, ARI: QB12. ADP 121.17
One year ago, Murray was being selected with the 56.00 pick. Now he is going at 121.17. He did suffer an ACL injury which does bring concerns about when he will start in 2023. The final concern would be his mobility after returning from that injury.
Murray’s added rushing dimension may need to wait until 2024 to truly flourish. He has had at least 400 rushing yards in each of his four seasons – notably 418 yards in 11 games this past season.
Trey Lance, SF: QB13, ADP 132.00
Three first-round picks are what the 49ers gave up for the rights to select Lance. He seemed to be a developmental project to eventually replace Jimmy Garoppolo. He was the starter for the 2022 season but unfortunately suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Since then we saw Garoppolo and Brock Purdy have success with the offense. His ADP has changed from 94.17 to 132.00.
If you do not buy Lance as the 2023 starter, it is easy to not select him in a startup. If you believe in him, he seems to be a value. The answer comes as the 2023 season approaches.
Russell Wilson, DEN: QB20, ADP 20
The Broncos were considered a Super Bowl-caliber team following their blockbuster trade for Wilson. In one year, his ADP fell from 109.67 to 169.67. There were reports he was nursing an injury early in the season and the first-year head coach was just not cutting it. These can be scapegoats but alas here we are heading into the 2023 season. The Broncos better hope those aforementioned statements were the reasons, and not Wilson, himself, regressing as a quarterback.
Additional fallers (2022 to 2023)
- Ryan Tannehill (171.67 to 237.67)
- Mac Jones (148.0 to 212.50)
Discussion
If you are not able to land one of the top tight ends, things will get difficult. You may find yourself wanting to reach because you need a tight end in your starting lineup. This will do you a disservice. It is difficult to know when, especially if your draft is having a tight end run, to draft your guy.
Quarterbacks in a single-quarterback league make them not as valuable. Contrarily, it may make the top talent valuable. You will not be able to consistently get a 20+ point quarterback who can pick up slack for your late-round tight end.
End of the day when the draft concludes you still are able to make transactions. Trade to fill a hole, work the waivers, and hit on your rookie selections.
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight Ends - May 31, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers - May 30, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Running Backs - May 29, 2023
