2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Tennessee Titans
Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this brand-new series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.
Let’s jump into the Tennessee Titans!
RISER: Tyjae Spears, RB
The Titans are a bizarre team for this exercise, as their July DLF ADP is somewhat warped. Most of that data came from before DeAndre Hopkins signed to the team, making it more challenging to evaluate their receiving options. For example, I fully believe in Treylon Burks’s and Chigoziem Okonkwo’s talent, but I don’t love their prices in this data. I’m sure if we collected ADP today, Burks would’ve been my choice for this section. However, based on what I have, Spears is by far the best candidate for a riser.
CURRENT MARKET VALUE
Currently, Spears is the RB40 and 116.33 overall in July’s DLF ADP data.
However, I disagree with that value, as I rank him ahead of almost all his comparable running backs. The only two I prefer are Alvin Kamara, now that his felony charges were dropped, and fellow rookie Tank Bigsby. Therefore, I rank Spears at RB32 and 97th overall in my 1QB dynasty rankings.
Interestingly, DLF’s expert rankings have Spears even lower at RB44 and 140th overall. I usually wouldn’t say it this way, but I find that ranking completely ridiculous. Running backs with day two draft capital typically have at least some NFL success, so ranking a third-round pick that low seems like an oversight or a mistake.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
As I mentioned, Spears was a third-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft and played college football at Tulane.
He didn’t play much as a true freshman in 2019, although he displayed big-play ability both on the ground and through the air. Based on that performance, he became Tulane’s clear lead back in 2020, although he suffered a season-ending injury in week three, which cut his breakout season short.
After that, he finally held up as the starter for an entire season in 2021, leading the team in carries and rushing touchdowns. He split some work with Cameron Carroll, but there was no comparison between the two players on the field. Then in 2022, Spears became a workhorse, taking 229 carries and maintaining a 6.9 YPC with 19 rushing touchdowns. Considering his high workload, passing-game involvement, and efficiency, he proved everything he could in college. Therefore, he declared for the 2023 NFL Draft, even though he could’ve returned to Tulane for one more year.
Early in the pre-draft process, Spears had a bit more hype, although he fell in the weeks leading up to the draft because of medical concerns with his knee. However, despite those issues, the Titans still chose him with a third-round pick and as the fifth running back off the board behind Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Zach Charbonnet, and Kendre Miller. Of course, the Titans have Derrick Henry entrenched as their starter, but he’s 29 years old and in the final year of his contract. Spears could easily start to see playing time this year before transitioning to a starting role in 2024 after Henry becomes a free agent. Additionally, he likely no longer faces competition from 2022 fourth-round pick Hassan Haskins after Haskins’s domestic violence arrest.
TRADE OPTIONS/CONCLUSION
Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder for some trade options involving Spears.
Unfortunately, there aren’t too many trades where Spears is a primary piece in the deal, as he’s mostly a throw-in on larger transactions. However, I’d easily pay any of these prices to acquire Spears. Neither Brandin Cooks nor Rondale Moore provides the long-term upside that Spears does, making those two easy accepts. As for the other trade, I don’t mind Javonte Williams, but I’d rather have two shots at running back and a second-rounder over him. However, based on the trade data, Spears is definitely far more of a value in startup drafts than in the trade market.
FALLER: Derrick Henry, RB
This choice feels like the easy way out, but I believe all of the Titans’ other relevant options are risers outside of maybe DeAndre Hopkins. Ryan Tannehill should have a strong 2023 season, potentially parlaying him into a new contract on another team. Additionally, the addition of Hopkins gives me more hope for Will Levis, both if he plays in 2023 and also in 2024 and beyond. Spears was already my riser in the previous section, and I’m a massive believer in Chigoziem Okonkwo after his strong rookie season.
Therefore, I only have Hopkins and Henry left as significant assets from the Titans. Both players have similar age-related arguments for being dynasty fallers, but I find Henry’s relative price far more expensive. In contrast, Hopkins is somewhat reasonably priced in this ADP data, as it was primarily collected while he was a free agent.
CURRENT MARKET VALUE
Currently, Henry is the RB15 and 46.33 overall in July’s DLF ADP. In DLF’s expert rankings, he’s RB16 and 48.88 overall. His price among running backs isn’t terrible, as I rank him at RB16 in my rankings, behind the same 14 running backs from the ADP data plus JK Dobbins. However, I just can’t spend that type of capital on an aging running back or a dead-zone-type running back at all. I only rank 14 running backs in my top 50 1QB dynasty rankings, and Henry is not one of those. He comes in at 60th overall behind a bunch of young wide receivers like Brandon Aiyuk, Jahan Dotson, and Jerry Jeudy.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
As usual, past performance is the best indicator of future performance in the NFL.
As you can see, Henry took a long time to get going in the NFL, as he failed to average 13 or more fantasy PPG in his first three seasons. However, in 2019, he became a full-blown workhorse, averaging 20 or more carries per game and 20 fantasy PPG over the next four seasons.
Looking at purely fantasy PPG, 2021 seems like Henry’s best year, but that’s not the whole story.
Henry maintained excellent rushing efficiency from 2018-2020 but fell off in 2021. That year, he rode on rushing volume alone, averaging 27.4 carries per game. Unfortunately, he suffered a Jones fracture due to the high workload, and he also lost a lot of efficiency that year, dropping over 0.1 fantasy point per opportunity. Additionally, he fell from 5.4 YPC in 2020 to 4.3 in 2021.
Then, in 2022, Henry returned to his fantasy production, but the efficiency did not return. He fell even further in rushing points per opportunity and landed at 4.4 YPC. He also lost some rushing work from his 2021 campaign, although he made up for it with increased work in the passing game.
I’m not saying that Henry will be irrelevant in 2023. But, he’s not the elite Derrick Henry of 2020 or even the volume back of 2021 before his Jones fracture. With Hopkins on the team and Burks heading into Year 2, I don’t expect Henry to duplicate his receiving production from 2022. Therefore, I rank Henry at RB10 in redraft PPR formats, as he comes with significant risk without the league-winning upside of previous years. Considering my redraft rank of Henry, it’s tough to take him at his dynasty cost, especially with only one year left on his NFL contract.
TRADE OPTIONS/CONCLUSION
Once again, let’s look at the DLF Trade Finder for potential Henry trades.
This trade makes little sense to me, as Nick Chubb is younger than Henry, has less competition this year, and has far fewer miles on his tires.
This deal is more typical of Henry trades I’ve seen in actual leagues, although it’s a bit expensive. I’d probably take any random 2024 first for Henry if push came to shove, but it’s an easy accept with KJ Osborn and a 2024 second for the 3.08 added as a swap.
Of course, Tom Brady is meaningless in this one, but DeVonta Smith for Henry and Rashod Bateman seems fantastic to me. Smith is a high-end dynasty asset, while Henry is near the end of his career, and Bateman has been a total bust through two seasons. Overall, I’d suggest taking any of the many trades in the Trade Finder of a 2024 first plus for Henry and moving on before the bottom falls out.
LONGSHOT: Malik Willis, QB
PATH TO RELEVANCE
Unfortunately, the Titans have literally zero longshots on the team who have any chance of succeeding on the Titans. Originally, Hassan Haskins was going to be my choice in this section, but his domestic violence arrest took him off my board entirely. I also liked Kyle Philips, but he has no path to success after the Hopkins signing. Therefore, my longshot is actually Willis, who has an interesting college profile but finds himself buried on the Titans.
The Titans just drafted Levis in the second round, and Tannehill is their current QB1. Willis might not even make the team in 2023, even though he was a third-rounder last year. However, if he goes to another team and ever sees the field, his college profile shows his fantasy upside.
Willis struggled to establish himself as a quarterback at Auburn, serving as a backup for two seasons before transferring to Liberty for the 2020 season and beyond. However, once he saw the field, he dominated as a rusher, scoring 27 rushing touchdowns over his final two college seasons. Yes, he wasn’t a very accurate passer, but rushing quarterbacks are king in fantasy football. I highly doubt that Willis ever gets a job as a franchise quarterback, but if he somehow lucks into some starts, he’ll have fantasy value from his rushing.
CASE AGAINST HIM
Essentially, quarterbacks without first-round draft capital who flop on their original teams never succeed in the NFL. The only current starters who weren’t first-round picks and aren’t starting for the team who drafted them are Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr, and each of them were at least somewhat successful on their original teams. I highly doubt that Willis will buck this trend, especially with how the Titans started Josh Dobbs over him down the stretch last year.
VERDICT
I have almost no hope for Willis actually to earn a starting job or succeed in the NFL. But if he lands on a new team and there’s an injury in front of him, he could gain some dynasty value at that point. If he ever does, I’d recommend trading him immediately, as he almost certainly will not be a true franchise quarterback ever in his career.
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