Running Back Opportunity Share Report: Week Seven
Welcome back to the Running Back Opportunity Share Report, the third installment in this weekly series examining how teams are deploying their running backs. Volume is king for running backs in fantasy football. Please refer to week five’s article for a review on the importance of volume for running backs.
What is RB Opportunity Share?
RB Opportunity Share is calculated by combining a player’s carries and targets and dividing them by the team’s total non-quarterback carries and running back targets.* This provides a single metric to illustrate the percentage of the team running back opportunities a player is receiving.
Bellcow Report
For this series, bellcow running backs will be defined as running backs with an Opportunity Share greater than or equal to 70 percent.
Blue Chips: James Robinson, Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, David Montgomery, and Todd Gurley.
Committee Backfields: New York Jets, Washington Football Team, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, and San Francisco 49ers.
Next Man Up: Giovani Bernard, Jamaal Williams, Boston Scott, Chase Edmonds, and Carlos Hyde.
Medical Tent: Jeff Wilson, Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, Aaron Jones, and Phillip Lindsay.
James Robinson, RB JAC
Robinson doubters are running out of ammunition after he had a 96.6 percent Opportunity Share (first) in week seven. Despite the Jaguars trailing by 16 points halfway through the second quarter, Robinson was the fantasy RB2 on the week. He rushed the ball 22 times for 119 yards and a touchdown.
Robinson added additional production in the receiving game catching four of six targets for 18 yards and another touchdown. He earned a 25.0 percent target share against Football Outsiders’ 12 ranked defense further reinforcing how safe his floor has become this season.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Henry was held in check for most of the afternoon by Football Outsiders second-ranked defense. Henry still managed 75 yards on 20 carries and scored the all-important touchdown to save his fantasy day. Henry’s 95.7 percent Opportunity Share (second) is exactly what fantasy managers have come to expect from him week in and week out. His workload was impressive with all of his touches coming when Tennessee trailed in this game.
Henry is the RB4 on the season and his weekly opportunities should keep him as a top fantasy running back this season. However, Henry’s two targets for negative two yards make him a little touchdown-dependent in games Tennessee is trailing.
Kareem Hunt, RB CLE
Since Nick Chubb went down in Cleveland’s week four matchup, Hunt has averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game. In the first two games after Chubb’s injury, Hunt handled 65.3 percent of the running back opportunities in Cleveland. A 22 percent increase in opportunity from weeks one through four.
In week seven, Hunt’s Opportunity Share surged again to 88.0 percent (third). He rushed for 76 yards on 18 attempts and reeled in three of his four targets for 26 yards. This is what fantasy managers envisioned for Hunt after Chubb’s injury. Chubb is three weeks into a projected six-week recovery giving Hunt several more weeks as the lead back in Cleveland.
James Conner, RB PIT
Conner eclipsed a 62.0 percent Opportunity Share for the first time in a month this week with an 83.3 percent Opportunity Share (sixth). Conner ran for 82 yards on 20 carries and caught three of five targets for 29 yards. Connor is 12th in the league averaging 18.3 touches per game and has been consistently getting volume all season.
Conner’s opportunity spike could be an outlier because this is the first time all season a secondary running back hasn’t seen at least 15.0 percent of the opportunity for the Steelers. Nevertheless, he’s the fantasy RB15 on the season and should remain a steady RB2 as long as he remains healthy.
Todd Gurley, RB ATL
Gurley has averaged a 54.7 Opportunity Share and 14.8 fantasy points per game in his first six games this season. His Opportunity Share jumped to 78.8 percent (eight) and he was the fantasy RB4 this week with 22.2 fantasy points. He scored two touchdowns this week but his 23 carries for 63 yards was typical of Gurley’s season to date.
Don’t look now but Gurley is the fantasy RB8 overall on the season. He’s living his best “volume is king” life in Atlanta and he’s tied for first with seven rushing touchdowns. Gurley is scoring a rushing touchdown every 69.3 rushing yards (11th) and the league average is 126.2 yards per touchdown. He would be getting a lot more love in dynasty if he didn’t have an extensive injury history and if he caught a few more passes per game.
Gurley is the 40th-ranked running back with 2.9 targets per game. Additionally, his efficiency on the season has been mediocre at best. scrimmage yards per play is a solid metric for predicting fantasy points because it combines volume and efficiency. Gurley currently ranks 28 overall with 1.10 scrimmage yards per play. Despite all of this, say it with me: “Volume is king.”
David Montgomery, RB CHI
Montgomery is still receiving the lion’s share of opportunity in Chicago. In week seven, Montgomery had an 86.4 percent Opportunity Share (fourth). He rushed for 48 yards on 14 attempts against the formidable Rams’ line. Plus, Montgomery caught five of five targets for 21 yards and a touchdown. His volume and role in the receiving game should make Montgomery an unexciting RB2 for the rest of the season.
David Johnson, RB HOU
Johnson has a large enough sample size at this point for fantasy managers to know what they are getting every week. On the ground, Johnson had 93.3 percent of the carries and caught all four of his targets through the air. On the season Johnson has a 79.6 percent Opportunity Share (second) and he was close to his season average in week seven with a 75.0 percent Opportunity Share (ninth).
The only difference this week is Johnson had a small bump in receiving production, caught a touchdown, and Duke Johnson had a season-high target share of 13.2 percent. David Johnson remains a weekly RB2 until Houston features him more as a receiver or finally plays up to their potential on offense.
Committee Backfields
New York Jets
It only took two weeks without Le’Veon Bell for Lamical Perine to overtake Frank Gore as the touch leader in New York. Perine had a 56.0 percent Opportunity Share compared to Gore’s 44.0 percent Opportunity Share in week seven. Both had eleven carries and Gore was even more efficient on his carries gaining 60 yards to Perine’s 39 yards.
However, Perine scored a rushing touchdown and saw three targets while Gore was not targeted by Sam Darnold. As a prospect, Perine underwhelmed from an athleticism and production standpoint but did have a 40 reception senior season. The Jets are expected to be trailing in most of their matchups which could provide a solid PPR floor for Perine the rest of the season.
Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson and the Washington Football Team dominated the Dallas Cowboys in week seven. Gibson had a 47.8 percent Opportunity Share right in line with his 49.3 percent Opportunity Share for the season. He had a season-high 20-carry game and Gibson rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, JD McKissic had a season-low 18.4 percent Opportunity Share and only had two targets due mostly to Washington’s big lead throughout the game. Peyton Barber had more opportunity than McKissic in week seven and plodded his way to 34 yards on ten carries.
Gibson’s 18.8 fantasy points and fantasy RB9 week are promising for the young rookie running back but fantasy managers should remain realistic about Gibson going forward. It was a soft matchup and Barber continues to see work in this backfield. The hope is Gibson can continue to put up 15 plus carry games and continue receiving his five targets per game he had been earning the previous three weeks. Washington has a bye in week eight but all eyes should remain on this backfield to see if Gibson has any uptick in volume coming out of their bye.
Dallas Cowboys
With Dak Prescott out for the season, Andy Dalton leaving week seven with a concussion, and Ben DiNucci in at quarterback, things quickly went off the rails for the Dallas Cowboys in week seven. Since fumbling twice early in week six, Ezekiel Elliott has seen his Opportunity Share drop from an average of 81.5 percent in weeks one through five to 56.8 percent the past two weeks. The most striking change in week seven was Elliott’s lack of involvement in the passing game. Elliott had been averaging a 14.7 percent target share through the first six weeks of the season but it dropped to 9.5 percent in week seven after seeing only two targets.
Conversely, after averaging a 9.5 percent Opportunity Share the first three weeks of the season, Tony Pollard has seen his opportunities increase every week. In week seven Pollard had a season-high 36.0 percent Opportunity Share and only had three fewer touches than Zeke. With Andy Dalton in concussion protocol, there isn’t much hope on the horizon for any of the Dallas Cowboy running backs in the near future.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Volume can be a fickle thing week to week for running backs and Ronald Jones’ fantasy managers were reminded of this early and often in week seven. Jones had averaged a 77.9 percent Opportunity Share and a 13.2 percent Target Share the previous three weeks while Leonard Fournette recovered from injury. Jones still carried the ball more than Fournette in week seven rushing 13 times compared to Fournette’s 11 rush attempts.
The dramatic shift in opportunity came from Fournette earning seven targets to Jones’ two targets. Bruce Arians said after the game Fournette would be the team’s “Nickel Back” moving forward indicating he would be the pass-catching back for Tom Brady. Jones still had a fourth-quarter goal-line carry he converted for a touchdown but his opportunity will take a big hit in his new role the rest of the season.
Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary tripled Zack Moss’ Opportunity Share in week six, 75.5 percent to 24.5 percent in Moss’ first game back from injury. Week seven was drastically different as Singletary saw his Opportunity Share fall to 54.1 percent and Moss had his increase to 47.3 percent.
Singletary rushed for 29 yards on eight carries while Moss had 47 yards on seven attempts. Singletary caught two of five targets for 18 yards while Moss secured all three of his targets for 25 yards. Moss scored 3.5 more fantasy points on less opportunity than Singletary and was more efficient with 0.97 scrimmage yards per play compared to Singletary’s 0.64 scrimmage yards per play. Week seven was more of what fantasy analysts expected heading into the season but managers invested in this backfield should monitor if Moss’ efficiency spike earned him more opportunities in week eight.
Kansas City Chiefs
Week seven was an odd week for one of the highest volume offenses in the NFL. Kansas City only ran 51 offensive plays after averaging 67.3 plays per game heading into their matchup with the Broncos. Kansas City scored a defensive touchdown and scored on a kick return reducing the offensive play volume. Week seven also marked Le’Veon Bell’s first game with his new team.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was still the primary back in this game and had a 52.2 percent Opportunity Share to Bell’s 26.1 percent Opportunity Share. This translated to 46 yards rushing on eight attempts for Edwards-Helaire while Bell had 39 yards on six carries. Edwards-Helaire caught only one of his four targets for 17 yards while Bell was not targeted in the passing game. Edwards-Helaire also scored the rare rushing touchdown (for him) in week seven after being one of the unluckiest running backs in the league and having several scores overturned by penalty through the first six weeks. Bell impressed in his debut and it was evident Kansas City has plans for him this season but Edwards-Helaire is still a valuable fantasy RB2 this season.
Detroit Lions
Week seven continued a positive trend for D’Andre Swift as he had his second consecutive game as the primary running back for the Lions. Swift had a season-high 51.9 percent Opportunity Share and out-snapped Adrian Peterson 28 to 19 in the Lions improbable win over the Falcons. Swift rushed for 27 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts and caught four of five targets for 21 yards. Peterson did have more attempts than Swift with 29 yards on 11 carries but fantasy managers are finally seeing Swift emerge in Detroit.
Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson continued his primary role for the Rams in week seven with a 51.5 percent Opportunity Share on 15 carries for 64 yards and two catches on two targets for 13 yards. Malcolm Brown did score the lone rushing touchdown on his 33.3 percent Opportunity Share on ten carries for 57 yards. Cam Akers remained a non-factor only seeing three snaps. The Rams backfield appears to have settled with Henderson as the primary and Brown as the secondary running back.
Los Angeles Chargers
Joshua Kelley handled the majority of the Chargers running back rush attempts out-carrying Justin Jackson 12 to 5 in week seven. Unfortunately, neither player produced much on the ground against a soft Jacksonville defense. The true star on the ground was Justin Herbert who flashed true Konami Code ability carrying the ball nine times for 66 yards and a touchdown and Joe Reed also scored on a jet-sweep in this game.
Both Kelley and Jackson were active in the passing game as Kelley caught five of five targets for 24 yards and Jackson reeled in five of six targets for 43 yards. Overall, Kelley did have a 51.5 percent Opportunity Share to Jackson’s 33.3 percent but Jackson was more efficient with his touches gaining two more yards than Kelley on seven fewer touches. This figures to be a true committee until Ekeler can return from injury.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs had a season-low 45.2 percent Opportunity Share against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their Football Outsiders’ top-ranked defense. Jacobs was stifled for 17 rush yards on ten carries while Jalen Richard and Devontae Booker combined for 29 yards on ten carries. Jacobs did catch three of his four targets for 14 yards and an 11.1 percent Target Share but disappointed across the board in week seven. Fantasy managers can only hope Jacobs can be more reliable against friendlier matchups in the future.
San Francisco 49ers
Jeff Wilson had a big week filling in for the injured Raheem Mostert but suffered a lower leg injury and was placed on injured reserve. JaMycal Hasty had another efficient week carrying the ball nine times for 56 yards and catching his lone target for 16 yards. Kyle Shanahan said the team has been managing Jerick McKinnon’s workload after averaging 11.8 touches per game through the first four weeks of the season. Most likely it will be a committee approach as the 49ers attempt to manage McKinnon’s workload. Both McKinnon and Hasty have nice flex appeal on this run friendly offense over the next several weeks.
Next Man Up
Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
Joe Mixon was out in week seven but Giovani stepped in and had an 85.7 percent Opportunity Share (fifth). Bernard also caught all five of his targets for 59 yards and a score to finish as the fantasy RB7. Mixon’s fantasy manages were able to find some solace in week seven as Joe Burrow vultured a goal-line touchdown from Bernard after Bernard did the same to Mixon in week six. Bernard’s PPR floor makes him a safe start if Mixon remains sidelined in week eight.
Jamaal Williams, RB GB
Aaron Jones was ruled out for Sunday’s matchup against the Texans but Jamaal Williams slid in and had an 80.0 Opportunity Share (seventh). Williams rushed for 77 yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts while grabbing four of five targets for another 37 yards receiving. Many fantasy players were optimistic second-round running back, AJ Dillon would see more opportunity but Dillon only ran five times for 11 yards. Williams should be Green Bay’s go-to option any time Jones misses time this season.
Boston Scott, RB PHI
With Miles Sanders out one to two weeks with a knee injury, Scott filled in nicely with a 70.8 percent Opportunity Share (tenth) in week seven. He ran for 46 yards on 12 carries and caught three of five targets for 46 additional yards. On Scott’s final target, he had a highlight-reel catch for the game-winning 18-yard touchdown for the Eagles. If Sanders misses another week, Scott remains an attractive option against the Dallas Cowboys a.d their Football Outsiders’ bottom-three defense.
Chase Edmonds, RB ARI
Edmonds was extremely effective against Seattle on Sunday Night Football and averaged 12.1 yards on his 12 touches. Edmonds finished the night with 21.5 fantasy points and was the fantasy RB5 in week seven. Kenyan Drake injured his ankle late in the fourth quarter and will miss several weeks according to reports. Edmonds is on a bye in week eight but has an opportunity to play a big part down the stretch for fantasy players.
Edmonds had been doubling Drake’s fantasy output on a per touch basis. He has a chance to run away with this job if his efficiency continues in an expanded role and is a must-start in most formats for as long as Drake is out.
Carlos Hyde, RB SEA
Chris Carson suffered an injury early against the Cardinals and Hyde filled in nicely during his absence. Hyde rushed for 68 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts while also bringing in three of his four targets for eight yards. Hyde’s 16.6 fantasy points made him the fantasy RB11 in week seven. Pete Carroll mentioned Hyde has a “tight” hamstring but is hopeful he can suit up for week eight.
Carson is determined to play in week eight with a foot sprain but is considered week to week according to Carroll. Travis Homer also suffered a knee bruise and could potentially miss week eight. If none of the backs are healthy, rookie DeeJay Dallas is next in line to handle the opportunities for the Seahawks.
Efficiency Check-In
While volume is king for running backs, efficiency often can lead to big returns in-season for running backs. An excellent metric that combines both volume and efficiency is scrimmage yards per play. It accounts for how much volume a player gets and how successful they are with it all within the context of their team’s offense. It also has a very strong correlation to fantasy points per game as the graph below illustrates.
Through seven weeks, here are the running back leaders in scrimmage yards per play:
As demonstrated by the table, leaders in scrimmage yards per play is a great representation for successful fantasy running backs and a recommended addition to your fantasy metrics’ toolbox.
This wraps up the RB Opportunity Share Report for week seven. The stats used in this article can be found in my free spreadsheet here. Thank you to ESPN.com, Football Outsiders, NFLGSIS.com, and Pro Football Reference for the stats and information provided in this article.
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*Some sites use only running back carries instead of non-quarterback carries. Due to an increased number of designed wide receiver and tight end runs in today’s NFL non-running back carries presents a more complete picture of a running back’s opportunity. If there was a better and more readily available stat for quarterback designed runs they would be included as well.
You can find my free spreadsheets and databases in my pinned tweet on Twitter. Please DM me with any questions or for help with Excel/Google Sheets.
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