2024 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Keon Coleman, WR Florida State
For several years, the NFL has trended towards smaller and quicker wide receivers to combat the two high zone looks that have dominated NFL defenses. Fantasy managers are seeing less production from prototypical big X receivers as a result. Historically, when one side of the ball trends towards a certain type of player, the other side of the ball counters. NFL defenses naturally will start drafting smaller defensive backs to keep up with smaller and quicker receivers in the NFL.
In steps soon-to-be 21-year-old Keon Coleman out of Florida State – a big wide receiver built like the red zone weapons of the mid-2000s who could feast against smaller defensive backs at the next level.
Recruitment
Coleman was a special three-sport athlete playing football, basketball, and track & field for Opelousas Catholic High School in Louisiana. The four-star wide receiver, per 247 Sports, received over 40 offers from Power-5 schools and initially committed to Kansas before de-committing and signing with Michigan State to play football and basketball. The 6’4” and 200-pound Coleman was the 61st-ranked wide receiver in the country and the 12th-ranked athlete in Louisiana according to 247Sports Composite.
Collegiate Career
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
As a true freshman, Coleman saw the field sparingly battling injuries in ten games securing seven receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. Michigan State finished 11th overall in college football after a decisive victory over Pitt in the Peach Bowl. Coleman rested for a few short weeks before joining Tom Izzo’s basketball team in which he appeared in six games for the Spartans.
He broke out in his second season at MSU, catching 58 balls for 798 yards and seven touchdowns. He led the team in all three categories gaining 27.7 percent of the team’s receiving yards and 30.4 percent of their receiving touchdowns. Coleman was rewarded with a third-team All-Big Ten selection by the media but was faced with a difficult career choice after such an impressive season. He battled injuries all season including a partial hip flexor tear which he aggravated in the final game versus Penn State. Ultimately, Coleman decided to focus solely on football and didn’t play college basketball moving forward.
With his basketball dreams behind him, Coleman entered the transfer portal ahead of his junior season. He expressed a desire to play closer to his native Louisiana and an opportunity to catch passes from Jordan Travis on a team with National Title aspirations led to him committing to Florida State. In his first and only season with the Seminoles, Coleman hauled in 50 receptions for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns. On a team loaded with receiving talent, he accrued 18.7 percent of Florida State’s receiving yards and an eye-popping 44.0% of their receiving touchdowns. Coleman was named as a First Team All-ACC receiver and was a semi-finalist for the Biletnikoff Award which honors college football’s top wide receiver.
Strengths
- Prototypical size for an X receiver at 6’4” and 215 pounds
- Excels at high-pointing the ball and making circus-like contested catches
- Athletic for his size and demonstrates superb YAC ability, averaging 5.0 yards after the catch for his career per Pro Football Focus
- Excellent play strength that complements his size well to create separation at the catch point
- Demonstrated the ability to play in the slot at Florida State, running 29.5 percent of his routes out of the slot per PFF
Weaknesses
- Lacks the long speed and acceleration required to create consistent separation with his routes
- Needs crisper footwork in and out of his breaks
- Production can disappear for long stretches in games
Draft Value
NFL Mock Draft Database has Coleman ranked as their 20th overall prospect and sees him being drafted in the late first round by the Buffalo Bills. He peaked as their sixth-ranked prospect in early November after he posted impressive performances against Syracuse and Wake Forest but has steadily fallen in their ranks since.
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
The NFL is desperate for more wide-receiving talent and a team could easily fall in love with Coleman’s size and highlight-reel catches come April. However, his production profile and film project him more as a prototypical second-round pick in the NFL Draft despite what early mock drafts indicate.
Dynasty Outlook
Courtesy of DLF Superflex Rookie Rankings.
DLF rankers have Coleman ranked as a mid-first-round pick in superflex rookie drafts. He slots in as the WR4 behind Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. The NFL Combine, landing spot, and draft capital will have a markedly greater impact on where Coleman will end up going in rookie drafts compared to the three wide receivers ahead of him in DLF rankings. This is illustrated nicely in the DLF ranks with the significant tier break between Brock Bowers and Coleman, Troy Franklin, Brian Thomas Jr, and Xavier Worthy.
Dynasty managers are left with a very interesting choice in the second half of the first round in rookie drafts this season. Mock Drafts and many in the NFL Draft community expect Keon Coleman’s size and ball skills will make him a strong selection in this area of rookie drafts. With the NFL trending towards smaller and quicker wide receivers, Coleman’s size could differentiate him and make him a much-needed red zone weapon that could pay off for dynasty managers everywhere.
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- 2024 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Keon Coleman, WR Florida State - February 2, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia - January 28, 2024
- 2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Sam LaPorta - June 17, 2023
