2019 Air Results: Wide Receivers

Back in 2014, as a wide-eyed dynasty optimist with time to kill, I descended into metrics madness trying to find a new way to better quantify receiving output. The result was the creation of the Adjusted Improvement Ratio, or AIR for short. This metric sought to contextualize inter-squad differences in order to place players onto a common pedestal, accounting for differences in efficiency between respective NFL offenses. By doing so, apples could be compared to apples, as opposed to attempting to differentiate between receiving results stemming from Patrick Mahomes dimes relative to Mitchell Trubisky YOLO bombs.

But instead of explaining the concept anew, I’ll defer to my past self to explain AIR, its derivation, and its purpose:

“AIR masks individual deficiencies by taking nearly every pertinent factor into account, including sample size, efficiency and the scope of a team’s offense.

To tabulate AIR, I created and followed the following formula:

AIR = % of Team’s PPR Receiving Points / % of Team’s Targets

The calculated ratio can then determine if a player was able to operate above the mean level of production for his offense. It also provided an answer as to whether a player’s fantasy points correlated to the volume of targets he received. Put another way, AIR describes a pass catcher’s impact relative to his team, as well as the efficiency at which he operated.

I know I’ve said a mouthful, and there’s only so much that can be described about metrics before the actual numbers are used. So in order to provide a sample of AIR in action, let’s consider the Browns’ Josh Gordon and his sterling 2013 campaign. In order to enact AIR, we first need to know how many PPR points were available to the Cleveland pass catchers:

As the table above shows, this number can be generated by taking the quarterback data and converting it to how the points would be scored relative to pass catchers. Each reception is worth one point, each yard is worth 0.1 points, and of course every touchdown is worth six points. For the Browns, this amounted to 972.2 possible points. As Gordon was responsible for 314.4 of these points, his numerator for the AIR equation stands at 32.3%.

The denominator is more straightforward. Browns’ quarterbacks attempted 681 (!) total passes, 159 of which were directed at Gordon. Therefore his AIR denominator (% of team targets) stands at 23.3%. Dividing the two numbers results in an AIR of 1.39 for the budding superstar, and also helps qualify the metric as a whole – the bigger the AIR, the better. AIR ratings approaching 1.0 (or below) represent expected, or subpar production.”

The original work can be found here, when I rolled through the results of the 2013 NFL season. Additional work was performed in subsequent iterations but has lamentably taken a backseat to real-world endeavors over the past few years. However, no longer is that the case!

This coming miniseries will include AIR results for both the top 50 wide receivers and the top 35 tight ends, along with breakdowns of results on a per-player basis, with specific focuses on veterans and then first- and second-year players. It will begin with the results for the receivers, ranked from highest AIR score to lowest.

However, prior to that, I’ll offer the following disclaimer: I’m not claiming AIR to be a predictive metric, as some preliminary (unpublished) work has shown it’s not overly sticky from year to year for determining top fantasy finishers. To that end, enough work has been performed and provided across varying fantasy websites to assert that volume is king, and stands as the best differentiator between higher and lower scoring fantasy assets. In other words, 160 relatively “poor” targets will still trump 80 “good” targets every time.

Where I believe AIR can be implemented is to potentially answer the question of “what if?” What if a supremely efficient receiver accrues more targets in subsequent years? Conversely, what if an inefficient receiver fails to sequester as many looks as in years past? This, in my estimation, is where AIR can be best utilized to afford an edge on helping to decide when to trade, or trade for, certain pass catchers.

With that preamble in hand, let’s get to the data! Below are summarized the AIR results for the 2019 top 50 wide receivers. Please note that any points from rushing have been subtracted and are not included – this is a receiving-only analysis. Subsequent articles will provide individual player breakdowns.

*AIR value is a weighted average of statistics accrued from stints in Denver and San Francisco

Find me on Twitter @EDH_27 (even though I rarely post anymore)

• Author
• Recent Posts

Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

Latest posts by Eric Hardter (see all)

• Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Six - October 8, 2024
• Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Five - October 1, 2024
• Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Four - September 24, 2024