Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Bottom Tier
“Forgotten Dynasty Youth” may sound like something of an oxymoron. This is dynasty football, after all, where lack of experience is viewed more as a tick mark in the “pros” column, as it should theoretically allow for additional longevity in the league. And yet the fantasy stock market is occasionally slow to correct itself, potentially yielding values on former blue chip youngsters. In this space I’ll be seeking to identify such assets.
So how am I defining youth? It’s a bit of a gray area. You can use years in the league, age, or amounts of total repetitions, with the latter particularly important at the running back position. But because youthful assets, particularly those selected early in the NFL Draft, tend to maintain dynasty staying power, a higher ADP doesn’t mean they’re not “forgotten.” As such any single metric may not be appropriate here. But one way or another, these will be guys who were once highly esteemed, and who I think may have since fallen a bit off the radar.
Where there will be structure is in the tiers, which will be threefold and as follows:
- Top Tier: ADP < 84.0 (first seven rounds of a 12-team startup draft)
- Middle Tier: ADP > 84.1 and < 168.0 (rounds eight through 14 in a startup draft)
- Bottom Tier: ADP > 168.1 (the rest)
I’ll be looking at four players per tier. Let’s conclude with the Bottom Tier!
Isaac Guerendo, RB SF
ADP: 173.2
Age: 24 years
Stop the presses, a player scored more points when the guys in front of him were out with injury!
Now that I’ve removed my tongue from my cheek (surgery was not required, thank you for asking), let’s get into the case for the second-year player. First and foremost, the advanced numbers support Guerendo’s efficiency. As shown below, of his 5.0 YPC, nearly 60% of them came after contact (2.9 YAC/Att). This was 0.6 YAC/Att better than teammate Jordan Mason, and 1.2 YAC/Att better than Christian McCaffrey. The small sample size is more than a grain of salt but not quite a glacier – it’s enough to make your food unappetizing but surely not inedible.
Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He was similarly efficient in the passing game, with 7.1 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R). He also had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 3.1 yards, which appears to be a staple of the 49ers offense – this isn’t trifling, as it is not uncommon for running backs to have a negative aDOT. So while it might not seem like much, Guerendo is effectively afforded nearly an additional PPR point every three receptions solely by where he catches the ball.
Perhaps most importantly, it took injuries to three players in front of Guerendo for him to see legitimate action in 2024. Two of those players are now off the roster – Elijah Mitchell signed with the Chiefs as a UDFA, and Mason was traded to the Vikings. We have to acknowledge that San Francisco has 11 picks in what is considered to be a draft class loaded with ball carriers, but Guerendo himself was a fourth round pick just last year. Further, as the dynasty RB53, this risk is already baked into his cost. For a late third-round pick I’d be buying the upside we saw last season.
Troy Franklin, WR DEN
ADP: 206.7
Age: 22 years
Statistics courtesy of 4for4.com.
The good news? If you believe receiving targets are “earned,” then Franklin earned them as well as anyone on the roster other than Courtland Sutton. The bad news? If you believe production is required to sustain the earning of targets, then Franklin probably isn’t your guy.
To that point, while the rookie got reasonable run, he was easily the least efficient of the group at a miniscule 5.0 yards per target. Of course, there are mitigating factors – first and foremost he had an aDOT of 13.0 yards, second only to Sutton’s 13.2 yards. For anyone who watched Franklin in college, this isn’t surprising, as the speedy receiver functioned as a big play threat downfield. It’s good in that these represent the “money” targets with the potential to result in chunks of yards and fantasy points. But in Franklin’s case, only 61.5% of his targets were deemed catchable, fueling a preponderance of air yards that ultimately didn’t result in completions.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Franklin stands as the biggest loser in value amongst Broncos receiver since the May 2024 ADP (immediately following his NFL Draft selection). This could present an opportunity to buy for Franklin’s believers, especially as the Broncos did nothing in free agency to address their receiving corps. Given some of the representative trades below, the current dynasty WR89 can be had either for a late pick, or as a throw-in to a larger deal.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE CAR
ADP: 225.0
Age: 22 years
Look, the numbers aren’t great for the current dynasty TE30, but there’s a reason these players are populating the “bottom tier” of the forgotten dynasty youth. And as always, in separating signal from noise it’s prudent to probe for mitigating factors. When it comes to Sanders, there are a few.
First and foremost, the 2024 Carolina Panthers were not exactly a bastion of offensive prowess or consistency. On the year, they had the third-fewest passing yards and tenth-fewest completions, while only providing 22 aerial scores. On a weekly basis, this equated to 46.6 PPR points to their pass catchers – perhaps not surprisingly the team’s best fantasy finisher was Adam Thielen as the PPR WR52, despite missing seven games.
Secondly, the Panthers split time at the position between Sanders and veteran Tommy Tremble. No, Tremble isn’t a good player (or probably even a league-average player), but the tight end position isn’t as easy for a rookie as Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta have made it look. Still, Sanders played the most snaps of any player at the position, with a snap percentage second to Tremble.
With that much-needed context in hand, it’s good to see that Sanders more than doubled his admittedly meager production when Tremble didn’t play. He was also beginning to hit his stride before a scary neck injury suffered against the Chiefs, with his five best seasonal efforts occurring in the six weeks prior (inclusive of the game against Kansas City). Getting back to the initial premise, I still don’t know if there’s any signal within the noise, but I’d be willing to trade a late-round pick to investigate further.
Brenton Strange, TE JAC
ADP: 235.5
Age: 24 years
The tight end position is perhaps my favorite to “dumpster dive,” as it seems to be an afterthought amongst dynasty owners – to that point, from Sanders on down there are 15 tight ends getting selected in at least one round of the mock drafts comprising DLF’s startup ADP, all with an ADP between 225.0 and 240.8. For a “onesie” position, that’s absolutely massive.
My favorite of all of these players may very well be Strange, and not just for my Penn State fandom (though that assuredly helps). To that point, his current stature as the dynasty TE39 somewhat belies his 2024 finish as the PPR TE31 despite missing three contests and sharing time with veteran teammate Evan Engram (nine contests played).
Once again here the numbers weren’t massive, but Strange did what he was supposed to do in doubling his fantasy output with Engram on the shelf. In doing so he had the second-most receiving yards on the team behind phenom Brian Thomas, and the third-most receptions. Despite getting 11 fewer looks than Engram, Strange actually bested him by 46 yards and a score. While we can acknowledge decisions at the NFL level often come down to money, perhaps it was this output that enabled Jacksonville to feel confident in releasing the veteran in the off-season.
Again, the numbers in a vacuum weren’t earth-shattering, but also represented a mammoth improvement from Strange’s rookie year 5-35-1 line. Given the current state of the Jaguars depth chart, and even if the team makes an addition in the 2025 NFL Draft, it wouldn’t be surprising to see these numbers improve once again in 2025.
Depth chart courtesy of 4for4.com.
It’s easy to forget that Strange was a former second-round pick himself. And though the regime that selected him has come and gone, new General Manager James Gladstone has already gone on record stating his excitement for the young tight end’s role in the offense. Given this, I wouldn’t find making a trade like the below to be… Strange… at all (had to).
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