Five Young Dynasty Players Whose ADPs Rose or Fell After Free Agency
Earlier this week, Ryan McDowell released our ADP for the month of March. From February to the end of March, ADP drastically changes because of free agency. Players are changing teams and veterans are moving up and down the board as a result. Obviously, the players who are signing new deals are often the ones who move the most. But, it’s often more interesting to analyze the effects on the other players impacted by the deals. For this exercise, we’ll ignore the players who have changed teams, and take a look at the biggest risers and fallers of the last month.
Three Biggest Risers
Isaac Guerendo, RB SF
Image from DLF’s ADP History app.
Last season, the 49ers were crushed by injuries at running back, allowing several players to break out. Guerendo, a 2024 fourth-round draft pick, was one of those breakouts. And, now that Jordan Mason has left San Francisco and signed a deal with Minnesota, Guerendo is Christian McCaffrey’s number one handcuff. That is why he was the number one ADP riser among veterans who didn’t move teams, moving from an ADP of 173.17 to 142.67.
Guerendo, along with Mason and Patrick Taylor, illustrated a long-known truth about the Kyle Shanahan offensive system. It almost doesn’t matter who the running back is, they are going to succeed. No matter who lined up as the lead back for the 49ers last season, they tended to have success. Guerendo carried the load near the tail-end of the season, after Mason suffered an injury. For the year, he ran the ball 84 times for 420 yards and four touchdowns, averaging five yards a carry. 3.04 of those yards per carry came after contact and nine of his 84 runs were for ten or more yards. It was a stellar rookie season for him, and now that he is McCaffrey’s primary handcuff, his value has skyrocketed. He’s the RB47 per our ADP, and he’s ranked as the 46th running back by our experts.
JJ McCarthy, QB MIN
McCarthy’s DLF ADP History.
Coming off an injury that ended his rookie season before it even started, McCarthy saw his ADP shoot up 26.5 spots from February to March. The Vikings didn’t do anything to add value around him. They re-signed Aaron Jones and brought in Jordan Mason, but that doesn’t help to explain the jump from 173.17 to 146.67 in ADP. It’s what the Vikings didn’t do in free agency that has caused this jump.
Rumors swirled about the possibilities of the Vikings bringing in a quarterback this off-season. They let Sam Darnold walk and sign with Seattle, something that most people expected. The more unexpected headlines were the ones surrounding Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has yet to sign with a team for 2025, but he’s running out of potential landing spots. The Vikings were reportedly flirting with the idea of bringing him in, but it seems like they’re looking forward to moving on with McCarthy leading the QB room. It’s a beautiful opportunity for a young quarterback to shine, despite the lack of experience. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are two great wide receivers, TJ Hockenson is healthy, and Jones and Mason should make for a really nice backfield duo. Now that it appears he’ll be the starter, McCarthy’s value is on the up and up. He’s the QB19 per our ADP, and he’s ranked as the 21st quarterback by our experts.
Jaylen Wright, RB MIA
Wright’s DLF ADP History.
Miami seemed like the perfect fit for Jaylen Wright when he came out of Tennessee. He’s a speed demon at running back, and the Dolphins love to have speed at every position on the field. But, it didn’t really go as planned. He only played 81 snaps, had 68 carries and six targets in the passing game. Despite that, his ADP jumped 21.33 spots, from 159.83 to 138.5, in the last month.
De’Von Achane is still the lead back in Miami, but the Dolphins have moved on from Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. They did sign Alexander Mattison, but he’s a different type of back than Achane and Wright are. It seems that the Dolphins are committed to giving Wright a larger role in the offense this season. He’s the RB47 per our ADP, and he’s ranked as the 46th running back by our experts.
It’s obvious to see that the three largest risers are 2024 rookies. Now that they’re going into their sophomore campaigns, their teams are making moves to commit to them in 2025 and beyond.
Two Biggest Fallers
Bryce Young, QB CAR
Young’s DLF ADP History.
Young’s value was tanked mid-way through last season. He was benched and was out-performed by Andy Dalton. Bryce Young’s managers were certainly panicking, but he got the job back and performed really well. His value rebounded, and he was nearly a top 150 pick in one quarterback leagues in February. Now, another month removed from the season, the excitement of the season has died down and his ADP is starting to normalize.
While the hype is dying down, the Panthers haven’t done anything this off-season to improve his situation. They re-signed Andy Dalton, meaning the ice will always be thin underneath Young’s job as the starter. They didn’t add any significant receivers or tight ends, and only signed Rico Dowdle to replace the injured Jonathon Brooks. The Panthers are doing nothing to help their franchise quarterback, hopefully they’ll add a high-end receiver in the draft, or Xavier Legette takes a step up. He’s the QB24 per our ADP, and he’s ranked as the 25th quarterback by our experts.
Demario Douglas, WR NE
Douglas’s DLF ADP History.
Douglas was the WR47 last year, catching 66 balls for 621 yards and three touchdowns. He was the leader of the Patriots receiver room, but that is just about the smallest compliment you can give to an NFL wide receiver. He was fine last year, but boring. His ADP has dropped an astonishing 80 spots since December, including the 32 spots it fell this month.
The Patriots are desperate for help at wide receiver. Even now, after they signed Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, it seems very likely that they are going to add a wide receiver in the first two days of the NFL Draft. Combine that with the potential upside of Kayshon Boutte, Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, and you start to understand the meteoric drop in his ADP this off-season. He’s the WR84 per our ADP, and he’s ranked as the 69th wide receiver by our experts.
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