A View From the 1.02: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
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1.02
The Pick: Derrius Guice, RB LSU
With presumed top pick Saquon Barkley getting all of the attention, a case can be made that former LSU back Derrius Guice is actually being underrated. Just as Barkley has been the heavy favorite at 1.01 for months, if not years, Guice has always been locked into the second spot. There have been some concerns about his ability in the passing game, but I expect Guice to prove he can catch the ball, just as his former teammate Leonard Fournette did during his rookie year. Guice has also been reportedly gaining momentum in NFL circles and could be drafted late in the first round, which would likely cement his spot in the two hole.
Possible Pivots:
Although Guice is the heavy favorite, other running backs seem to be favored by some. Depending on draft capital and landing spots, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel or even Rashaad Penny could also be considered for the second overall pick in rookie drafts.
Trade Value:
The value of the 1.01 pick has been through the roof, but that should be no slight to the 1.02 pick, which will return a high-end prospect regardless of who is ultimately chosen. Here are some recent trades involving the second pick.
- Derek Carr, Tevin Coleman, 1.07, 2019 first for 1.02, Kirk Cousins
- Carson Wentz, Adrian Peterson, 1.09 for 1.02, Case Keenum, Bilal Powell
- Melvin Gordon for 1.02
- Julian Edelman, 1.03 for 1.02
- David Johnson for Stefon Diggs, 1.02
Super-Flex Options: Guice
The added value to the quarterback position once again is not enough to push the potential every-down back out of the top spot as Guice is also the favored 1.02 pick according to our 2QB rookie ADP data. The difference here is a strong case can be made for the favored quarterback to be selected ahead of Guice, making the gap between him and other players much smaller in this format.
2.02
The Pick: Equanimeous St. Brown, WR Notre Dame
The freakish wideout with the draft’s most unique name is Equanimeous St. Brown, formerly of Notre Dame. St. Brown is one of my favorites in this class, but there are certainly some reasons to believe he might never reach his sky-high upside. Even with those doubts, grabbing EQSB in the early second round is well worth the investment.
Possible Pivots:
If the questions are just too numerous for your tastes, there will be plenty of other options, as I feel this tier ends soon. Former Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson could certainly slide to this pick and other possibilities include running back John Kelly and wideout Michael Gallup.
Trade Value:
- Drew Brees, Cameron Meredith, 1.12, 2.07 for Jameis Winston, Eric Ebron, 2.02
- Jamison Crowder, Delanie Walker, 4.06 for Tarik Cohen, 2.02
- Will Fuller for 2.02
- Jason Witten, 1.11 for 2.01, 2.02
- Mitchell Trubisky, Paul Richardson, 2.12 for Mike Williams, 2.02
Super-Flex Options: James Washington, WR Oklahoma State
In the super-flex format, talents like James Washington can often fall to the second round and that is the case according to our current super-flex rookie ADP. While others chase quarterbacks, Washington is a huge steal outside of the top 12 players.
3.02
The Pick: Bo Scarbrough, RB Alabama
Former Alabama back Bo Scarbrough is one of the most well-known runners in this class, thanks to his profile recruitment out of high school and late season heroics as the Crimson Tide won the title two seasons ago. During his time in college, Scarbrough was constantly part of a committee backfield and that will likely be the case in the NFL as well. I, and many, have concerns about Scarbrough, but he’s worth the risk at this point of the draft.
Possible Pivots:
I actually love this portion of the draft, at least based on our current ADP. I see many players coming off the board in this range that I would love to have on my team, especially at the cost of only a third-round pick. Among these are Mike Gesicki, DJ Chark, Deon Cain and Nyheim Hines.
Trade Value:
- Lamar Miller for 3.02
- Greg Olsen for 3.02
- Kenny Stills, 2.09 for 3.02, 3.03
- Randall Cobb for 3.02
- Isaiah Crowell for 3.02
Super-Flex Options: Mark Walton, RB Miami
Miami running back Mark Walton was off to a strong start during his junior year before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Despite that, he still opted to declare early for the NFL Draft but has gone somewhat under the radar through the pre-draft process. Much of Walton’s value will depend on his landing spot and draft position.
4.02
The Pick: Akrum Wadley, RB Iowa
Much like Walton, Iowa’s Akrum Wadley started the season well, before the Hawkeye’s offense struggled and Wadley’s production slowed down. Wadley’s Combine was a bit disappointing as well and he’s undersized. He’ll need a perfect landing spot to be roster-worthy.
Possible Pivots:
Again, there are some exciting options in the early fourth-round range that I would prefer to Wadley, including Dante Pettis, DaeSean Hamilton and running back Justin Jackson.
Super-Flex Options: Kyle Lauletta, QB Richmond
This looks great now, but I have a hard time imagining quarterback Kyle Lauletta falling this far in a 2QB format. Recently, Lauletta has been mocked in the second round and even linked to the New England Patriots, which would boost him up at least a full round.
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- Five Rookies To Target In The Third Round Of Rookie Drafts - May 6, 2024
- Monday Mocks: 2024 Superflex Rookie Mock Draft - April 29, 2024
- DLF’s April 1QB Trade Value Chart - April 24, 2024
