Post-Draft Rookie Rankings vs Redraft Rankings
I’ve been asked to reprise the DLF series exploring DLF rankings vs redraft rankings for this year’s rookie class.
I updated the rookie big board using DLF superflex rankings and current Fantasy Pros rankings and calculated the difference in interest from both camps.
A word on methodology (or what it is you are looking at):
Because ADP is always behind the market (currently the most up-to-date superflex ADP is from April) I take DLF Superflex rankings and use them as a real-life reflection of what 12 people in any given dynasty league may think. You can see when they were last updated on the DLF Superflex ranking page. But the key for our purpose is these rankings have been updated since the draft.
What’s more, I’m now comparing Fantasy Pros rookie order to DLF’s Superflex rankings rookie order. In other words, while redraft may not want to take a rookie wide receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr as early overall, they do feel he’s the most valuable rookie entering the 2024 season placing him first in this entire rookie class.
I then calculate the logarithmic difference between both rookie overall rankings to create the last column denoting the difference between each camp’s preference. I use that calculation because having a single ranking difference early is more important than a five ranking difference later, and the logarithmic calculation reflects this.
The draft board is formatted in the shape of a 12-team rookie draft, so your mileage may vary, but I think it’s the most common league size and hopefully will be the most familiar to most people.
With that all being said, let’s dig in.
Round One
The first observation is that redraft rankings prefer the consensus WR1 to the QB1. While redraft is not placing him high overall, it does suggest he is a better bet for a more immediate impact on a roster in 2024. I don’t think this is as much a negative for Caleb Williams as it is a positive for Marvin Harrison Jr.
The inverse is true when it comes to Rome Odunze and JJ McCarthy, however, as redraft rankings prefer McCarthy – not just above Drake Maye, presumably because of their respective chances of starting this season – but also above the WR3 (both groups have Odunze as the WR3, however).
Finally, not only do redraft rankings suggest that Xavier Worthy is mis-ranked as the WR4 (and shouldn’t be behind Brian Thomas) but they also suggest he is more interesting as a potential 2024 impact player. Redraft has Worthy ranked as the eighth most interesting 2024 rookie off the board while Dynasty currently has him tenth behind Brian Thomas and Brock Bowers. But this is likely a reflection of Bower’s long-term upside. Still, Thomas’ rank in redraft suggests dynasty is underrating Worthy’s potential to improve his value this season.
Round Two
Redraft rankings suggest that while dynasty is significantly interested in Ladd McConkey, they may be underselling his potential this year, as redraft leap-frogs both the consensus RB1, Jonathon Brooks, and Bo Nix to enter the later first round rather than him very early second.
Keon Coleman also gets a significant jump in redraft preferences entering the top 12 rookies jumping Nix and Brooks.
Both wide receivers hold more interest in redraft than Brian Thomas who falls into the second round of rookie rankings at 15.
Notably, both Blake Corum and MarShawn Lloyd are more interesting for redraft, something dynasty should take strong note of since any running back who produces this year will have an immediate rise in value. Redraft rankings place him in the late second of superflex, making anyone getting him in the late third as dynasty rankings suggest a clear win.
Round Three
Above the likes of Ray Davis, Ben Sinnott, and Ja’Lynn Polk, redraft has more interest in fourth-round NFL selection Troy Franklin. This is likely because of the difference in downside for redraft versus the upside of production for this year. Still, it’s interesting that Franklin is specifically the wide receiver redraft highlights as a later-round impact player.
Roman Wilson – Pittsburgh’s newest attempt to prove they out-scout the entire NFL at wide receiver and Jaylen Wright – De’Von Achane’s new touch competition in Miami – are both more interesting for redraft rankings than in dynasty making both strong targets in the third round of rookie drafts this year.
Round Four
Round four is the story of two players, Javon Baker, and Jacob Cowing. Both wide receivers look significantly under-ranked in dynasty by redraft standards.
I should note that I expect dynasty rankings to be better reflections of deeper prospects, given the tendency for dynasty to focus on college and NFL profiles that are less common or well-known. However, both Baker and Cowing (fourth round in the NFL) had great landing spots (Baker falling to the depleted receiving corps of New England and Cowing going to an already successful offense that has shown a willingness to spread the ball around to other options in San Francisco) in terms of their ability to gain traction and find more immediate opportunity in the NFL. They are undervalued in the fourth round per dynasty rankings right now.
Anyway, that’s about all I have time for right now, I recommend you check out both DLF and fantasy pro rankings to gain more perspective on these rankings, and as always keep an eye on DLF ADP to see how these players are changing value in the dynasty landscape.
Until next time, thanks for checking out this article, have fun and good luck this year.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Post-Draft Rookie Rankings vs Redraft Rankings - May 22, 2024
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 15 - December 23, 2023
