Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Malik Nabers and Isaiah Pacheco
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
The answer that all fantasy enthusiasts were waiting turned out to be…a non-answer! To that point, a potential vote on the lightning rod “tush push” play was tabled at the April NFL Owners meeting, and will potentially be voted on at a later date. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen owners can, for now, breathe a temporary sigh of relief and continue anticipating a plethora of short-yardage rushing scores.
As to my largely meaningless thoughts on the matter – if you don’t want the opposing team to score, stop them. And if conversion of a short-yardage play is all but inevitable, stop them on earlier downs. I look at it the same way as when backup players are still competing at the tail end of a blowout contest. If you don’t want to be embarrassed on the scoreboard, do what you need to do on the defensive side of the ball.
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Won’t You Be My Nabers?
In a 10-team, superflex half-PPR league, what is the difference in rookie draft picks between Jahmyr Gibbs and Malik Nabers?
From an agnostic perspective, the difference is roughly equivalent to an early third-round pick in a 10-team, superflex league format. But this only represents the outermost layer of the onion. Let’s attempt to add a bit of nuance to the equation.
First and foremost, the math is fake to me. Even given the superflex setting, what is the likelihood that the 22nd pick in a rookie draft is going to wind up being a contributor to your team? Consider the below.
This snapshot represents the player’s likeliest to be available at pick 3.02, including a little drift on both ends. I’m not going to tell you what to think of each of these players, as differences of opinion are what add the requisite shades of gray to this hobby, with a rookie draft perhaps functioning as peak subjectivity. But what I can say for my bard is that Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe is the player I would need to see available – unfortunately given recent news that he’s willing to attend the draft in person, and that he’s taking top-30 visits with various NFL teams, I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes one of the biggest movers in rookie drafts.
Maybe some of these players make it worth it to you, in which case the trade is fine as proposed. But given my stance on non-first-round draft picks, I’m more willing to effectively zero out the value of pick 3.02, meaning there’s still roughly a 13% difference in value between the two players. But should there be?
Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday
As the overall half-PPR RB1 last season, Gibbs was 6.3 weekly points better than the RB10, Alvin Kamara, and 9.0 points better than the RB20, Najee Harris. While not shown in this data, the drop-off becomes even steeper to the RB30, Kareem Hunt, at 11.5 weekly points (more than half of Gibbs’ weekly output). In a 10-team league, it’s reasonable to assume a lineup will minimally consist of two starting ball carriers, with the potential for even more. Given this, the data shows that having an elite running back has the potential to make a demonstrable difference in starting lineups.
Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday
The top 20 receivers don’t look too dissimilar to the running backs, but even while acknowledging it was Nabers’ rookie season and he was playing on a league-worst offense, he was 121 points off of Gibbs’ pace. Further, as the half-PPR WR7, he was only 0.8 PPG better than the WR10 and 2.1 PPG better than the WR20. The drop-off subsequent to this is less severe than noted with the running backs, as the total output of the RB30 was equivalent to the WR37, and the RB40 equivalent to the WR58. This isn’t shocking, as receivers represent the deepest skill position group in both real life and fantasy football, but it bears noting.
Continuing on, Ja’Marr Chase who hit the receiving triple crown was only 0.6 seasonal points better than Gibbs. All of the half-PPR RB1-5 were better than the WR2 (Justin Jefferson), and the RB1-9 were better than the WR4 (Brian Thomas). When combining the scoring setting with the positional scarcity, I’m actually wondering if it’s the Nabers side that needs to add something to the equation.
However, we know Dynasty Fantasy Football tends to skew towards receivers. And while at 23 years old Gibbs is remarkably young for a soon-to-be third year player, Nabers is nearly 1.5 years younger, still only 21 years old. As such I do understand that it’s less to do with what both players have done in the NFL to date, and more about hypothetical growth potential.
So, while I provided the above as consideration as to which asset should be valued higher, I’ll stay true to the initial assertion that Nabers is on the positive side of the ledger. Given this, and given my thoughts on non-first-round picks, I’d need to see something like the below to move dynasty’s fifth-best asset.
Pa-check Yourself Before You Wreck Yourself
Which side do you prefer in a 12-team, superflex, TE-premium PPR league – Isiah Pacheco and pick 1.02, or Chuba Hubbard and picks 1.07 and 2.07?
All told I don’t have any major qualms with the absolute values on either side. In a superflex league setting, 2025 rookie pick 1.02 is guaranteed to land either quarterback Cam Ward, the likely #1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, or running back Ashton Jeanty, the consensus “best player available” from a fantasy setting. Similarly, I don’t take umbrage with pick 1.07 being the second most valuable asset – while any level of “certainty” degrades with each subsequent pick, there remains a good chance of nabbing a skill position player taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. Particularly given the TE-premium setting, this also puts a pass catcher like Tyler Warren in play, bolstering the available player pool.
Again, all fine thus far. But from here I have one major question – how in the heck is Chuba Hubbard viewed as the worst asset in the deal?
If this was 2023, then I could get on board with Pacheco being the superior dynasty value. But there’s one tiny problem with that: 2024 happened! In 2024, Pacheco was a shell of himself even before getting hurt, and he never really came back, getting mothballed in the NFL playoffs in favor of veteran teammate Hunt. To that point, he put forward the lowest yards after contact per carry (YAC/C) of his career (1.5) and didn’t break a single tackle on 83 attempts.
Hubbard, on the other hand, had the highest YAC/C of his career (2.2), and broke a tackle every 17.9 rushing attempts and every 6.1 receptions. He did this despite having the highest carry total (250) and most receptions (43) of his four-year career. For these reasons, he was given a mid-year contract extension worth up to $33.2 million ($16.5 million guaranteed).
As can also be shown below, Hubbard’s 2024 season was even better than Pacheco’s stellar 2023 campaign. Both were excellent years, but Hubbard nearly doubled Pacheco’s top-five efforts and also had a slight 4% increase in total RB1 weeks. Pacheco was better in the RB2 and non-RB4+ metrics, but Hubbard had the higher ceiling and didn’t lose weeks for you 86% of the time.
He also managed to do this while playing for the 4-13 Panthers, while Pacheco had the luxury of playing for the division-winning and eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Should the Carolina offense improve, it’s not unreasonable to think Hubbard could kick into yet another gear. While I recognize that’s pure speculation, a better passing offense could open up rushing lanes, and Hubbard could receive more volume in close games. To that point, Hubbard’s highest volume efforts (20+ carries) in 2024 all came in wins or games decided by one score.
Given this, I’d agree with the mock drafters comprising the current DLF ADP and consider Hubbard the better dynasty value. Anecdotally, I have both on one roster and wouldn’t trade Hubbard for Pacheco in a 1:1 deal. I could easily see his and Pacheco’s value flip-flopping and then tilting the deal towards the side with pick 1.07.
But…pick 1.02 probably wins the day here. As much as I like Hubbard, I worry about the fantasy returns coming from whoever would be selected at pick 1.07, and pick 2.07 is largely window-dressing. Pick 1.02 should yield a cornerstone asset at either quarterback or running back, and I still believe Pacheco has enough left in the tank to bounce back and provide solid (if not elite) fantasy returns. Given this, I’d lean towards the pick 1.02 side, but I would be seeking a way to make a separate deal solely for Hubbard!
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