Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Sell High on Jayden Daniels?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
As we espouse here at DLF, there truly is no off-season! Along that line of thinking, even though the Super Bowl concluded only a little over a week ago, we’re already on to the next action. Up next? Teams may begin placing franchise and transition tags on players from today through March 4th.
In my subjective opinion, this process has gotten a bit more civilized in recent seasons. Of all the players tagged last year, the majority wound up playing for the team that tagged them. Colts receiver Michael Pittman was even able to transition his into a longer-term deal worth up to $70 million. Carolina defender Brian Burns was tagged and ultimately traded to the Giants, but even that came with little drama.
This season appears to present few obvious candidates, but one player I’ll be keeping my eye on is Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. As we know, despite folding down the stretch Darnold had a career year in 2024, and one way or another appears likely to be a starter somewhere in 2025. Minnesota has unproven former first-round pick JJ McCarthy waiting in the wings, and may be ready to unleash him after he missed the entirety of his rookie season due to injury. Still, this was a team that went 14-3 last season, and was a game away from claiming the NFC’s #1 seed – they may not quite be ready to hand the reins over to a player who only attempted 713 collegiate passes. We will know soon enough what the Vikings will do, and can then prognosticate the downstream impact on pass catchers like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson.
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Pack Daniels
In a 12-team, half-PPR superflex league would you consider selling high on Jayden Daniels? One potential offer could be Daniels, pick 1.09 and a 2026 first for Trevor Lawrence, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.
Let’s start with the broader question here – how early is too early to cash out on a young player who has experienced a massive value fluctuation? With Daniels, this change has been in the extremely positive direction. Though interestingly the other signal caller involved, the Jaguars’ Lawrence, has been in a fairly steady decline since underwhelming in his first year in the league.
As can be discerned from the above, Lawrence started off with a significant ADP advantage over Daniels. This wasn’t terribly surprising, as he was the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and was considered to be by most as a bulletproof prospect. Daniels, on the other hand, was considered to be more of a project, whose sublime athletic traits were matched only by his propensity for taking unnecessary hits.
Lawrence’s initial dip stabilized with a promising sophomore campaign, only for the rug to be pulled out after two straight middling seasons in 2023 and 2024. His ADP is now well outside the top 150 players, and he’s going off the board as the QB23. His value is quite literally half of what it was when he entered DLF’s ADP.
Why do I mention this? It’s because I can offer a personal anecdote on the situation. In one of my long-term superflex leagues I traded quite a bit to gain pick 1.01 and the right to select Lawrence. Given his seemingly generational talent and the format heightening the value of the position, it seemed like a surefire move for me.
Within the next three months I had already traded him away, with a conviction that he just wasn’t going to be the player I thought he was. And while there have been a few bright moments for him since, and though I didn’t get anywhere near the value I had to spend to get him, I still think it was the right move. My gut told me it was time to move on, and had I waited it’s possible I would’ve gotten even less for him.
This is all to say there’s never a bad time to cash in or out of an investment. For me, I don’t personally believe Daniels’ ascension is near complete. And even though his value is extremely high, it can still go higher.
Yes, per the current superflex dynasty ADP, he’s the third player off the board. But notably he didn’t garner a single first or second pick selection, as across four mock drafts these all went to either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, who share the top spot.
Yes, the values are close, but with the elite players, this represents a tangible difference. However, given his four additional years of youth, another year similar to his rookie season – or better yet one with improvement – should see him as the #1 overall superflex dynasty asset by this time next year. So even though you would still be selling high now, it still may not be at Daniels’ peak.
Of course, this is all entirely subjective. Trust your gut, and if it tells you to cash out then you should do so. The currently stated deal would definitely represent a windfall.
You’ve read my opinions on Lawrence above. If you’re so extraordinarily loaded that he would be your QB3, then I think this deal makes a lot of sense as he’s arguably the least valuable asset on either side (regardless of what the numbers say). But if you’re counting on him as your QB2, I worry that you’re sacrificing a lot of points (6.1 points last season) on a weekly basis. The running backs have the potential to make that up for you, but this will depend on who you’re currently trotting out.
The other reason I like the deal is that I just don’t love this draft class. Pick 1.09, even in a superflex format, just doesn’t move the needle for me in a weaker group. If it does for your trade partner, all the better. Nabbing Gibbs and Robinson should help ensure that your 2026 first remains on the back half of the draft, as well.
So even though I’d hate giving up Daniels, and I’m just not a fan of Lawrence, I likely do the deed here. It has the potential to be a transformational trade for your running back room, and adds points now at the expense of drafting for potential. And if your gut tells you now is the time to cash out on Daniels, I can’t say I agree but would advise you to trust your instincts.
Taylor Made?
Which side do you prefer for a contender in a 12-team PPR league – Jonathan Taylor, Jayden Reed and Anthony Richardson, or Rashee Rice, James Conner, JJ McCarthy and a 2026 first-round pick?
If you’ve been reading this weekly column, you know where I’m going to start here.
What can immediately be discerned here is this is more or less a two-for-two trade as it relates to major assets. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson’s talent remains tantalizing, but he struggles with accuracy and is seemingly always hurt. His ceiling is likely significantly higher than McCarthy’s, but his floor is subterranean. Still, in a 1QB league I’d rather take a shot on him than on a player who lacks his rushing ability, and simply does not excite as a potential high-end asset.
The most interesting player in the deal may be Conner. All he does, year after year, is put up weekly RB1-level numbers while missing a small handful of games. It’s true he’s turning 30 in May, but he passed the eye test last season and was rewarded with an in-season, two-year extension worth up to $19 million. 2024 rookie ball carrier Trey Benson now seems like little more than an afterthought.
But when the cliff comes for aging running backs, it comes quickly, with players like Derrick Henry functioning as the exception that proves the rule. The hope is that Conner will continue his RB1 ways, but there’s simply no guarantee. As such the Trade Analyzer’s valuation seems fairly spot on – he’s not a “throw-in” by any stretch, but there is tangible downside.
Given this, and with the lens of contention, it’s hard to view a side with Conner, a player coming off injury and potentially facing suspension in Rice, and a 2026 first round pick as the winner here. From a longer term perspective the latter two may yield additional dividends, but for 2025 I have a hard time seeing it.
With a new-ish contract of his own and fresh off a season where he was the RB7 in points per game, Taylor is my favorite asset in the deal. Yes, he also seems to miss time each year, but he has a week-winning ceiling as he showed down the stretch when he likely helped many fantasy owners reach the promised land.
I’m not particularly bullish on Reed, but I recognize he’s been a steady PPR WR3 in both years since entering the league. It’s not exciting, but there are only 12 WR1 players, so not everyone can be a star. Given the state of Rice’s injury and potential looming suspension, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where Reed outscores him in 2025. Moving forward I’d like to see Green Bay consolidate around two to three pass catchers instead of their current amorphous blob, but worst case scenario we’ve seen Reed’s floor.
As I noted earlier, if it was a forward-thinking deal then I might change my verdict. But I think the most points in 2025 are coming from Taylor and Reed, and even Richardson might surprise if he can get coached up a bit this off-season. In an ideal world, you might be able to keep Conner and send something like another future pick that way, or another younger player such as Khalil Shakir or Marvin Mims. Pairing Conner with Taylor could yield two RB1-caliber players if they both stay healthy, thereby enhancing your chances of taking home the ‘ship this coming season.
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