Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: What to do with Jaylen Waddle?

Eric Hardter

Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.

If we’re all content accepting that the “Pro Bowl Games” now take place in Orlando and consist of flag football, tug of war and a “skills show,” then I’m going to give myself a week here too. Let’s get down to business!

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From the old-school webform…

Waddling Here or There?

In an eight-team, non-PPR superflex league I have Jaylen Waddle on a contending team – are you holding or selling? I also have pick 1.08 I could package with him – are there any particular players in this price range I should target? – Tom in Texas

To get something of a sense check, let’s see where the dynasty masses are landing on the talented Miami pass catcher.

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As shown above, Waddle is going off the board as the 39th overall player and as a late fifth-round pick in eight-team league startup drafts. In your league setting, he’d be considered as a high-end WR4, though it should be acknowledged that DLF doesn’t perform non-PPR mock drafts in support of its ADP. While Waddle was picked as early as 26th overall in one mock draft, all others found him landing in the range of 35-44.

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All told I’m fairly comfortable with him in this range. As shown above, he was previously regarded as a top-20 overall player as recently as September of last year, and peaked as a top-five overall asset in 2023. Interestingly though, he’s now slightly behind teammate Hill despite the latter’s soon-to-be 31 years of age.

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His yearly finishes (again, PPR here) help explain his downward trend. Certainly some context can be applied – the Dolphins were mid-tier in terms of both passing yards and touchdowns, but this didn’t stop Hill from finishing as a WR3 in your format, and tight end Jonnu Smith finishing as the TE3. The team’s running backs also managed to sequester away 876 total receiving yards and six aerial scores, good for 21.7% and 27.3% of the team’s totals, respectively.

Perhaps this is the new paradigm under head coach Mike McDaniel? Previously the team had featured Hill as a high-end WR1, with Waddle chipping in as the team’s second target in the passing game. It could also be due to starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa only managing 10 contests last season due to injury. For now we may consider it a single data point, and if the Dolphins struggle to make the playoffs again in 2025 it’s entirely possible we’ll be looking at a new coaching staff, regardless.

So there’s the backdrop.

As to my thoughts on the matter, while I now view Waddle as appropriately valued, I still don’t view him as a game-changer. Even in his best year (2022), when he finished as the non-PPR WR7, he was 2.0 PPG off the pace of the WR5 (Stefon Diggs). As he’s only 26 years old I won’t assert this is his ceiling, but he’s also been going downhill since.

As to rookie pick 1.08, it seems likely you’ll have a crack at a solid ball carrier such as Omarion Hampton or Quinshon Judkins. Alternatively you could break convention and go for the draft’s top tight end in Tyler Warren – with pick 1.08 my assumption is you won the league last year, which gives you the ability to make a “luxury” pick. Warren could marinate on your bench for a couple of years, or perhaps could even offer immediate viability similar to other recent, polished players at the position like Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers.

Still, if I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times (or like, 38 times at least) – in smaller league settings studs win the day! Waddle seemed like he was going to be a stud at first, but the winds are now blowing in a different direction. And the pick could very well yield a stud, but draft picks are represent roughly 50% likelihood, and the argument remains that it’s more valuable as an unmade pick than a selected player.

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If you could make something like the above happen, I’d pull the trigger. Collins was one of the best receivers in the league last year, even with his missed time. Waddle likely still carries some name brand recognition, and picks are always well-regarded, so there’s a chance you could get this or something similar over the finish line.

Which side?

For a rebuilding team in a 12-team, half-PPR league, which side do you prefer – Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, and picks 3.03 and 3.05, or Marvin Harrison Jr, Jalen Coker, 2025 picks 1.09 and 2.10, and a 2027 first?

To the DLF Trade Analyzer!

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While this isn’t the dynasty trade equivalent of a knockout, the Harrison side of the equation is barely staggering back to its feet at the referee’s 7-count. And truthfully it’s not terribly surprising – while the rookie came in as one of the most unimpeachable prospects in recent memory, he merely whelmed in his freshman season while watching his compatriots Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, and Ladd McConkey excel. Though he remained fairly insulated based on his draft status and the fact he didn’t completely crater, he’s now viewed as the dynasty WR11, no longer a first-round selection in startup drafts.

The two first-round picks are nice, but the 1.09 selection in a fairly “meh” draft class in a 1QB setting isn’t terribly inspiring to me. Similar to my advice in the question above, I’d likely seek a player like Warren here to potentially gain the most optimal positional value. The delay in gratitude sees the 2027 pick fall in value, which is understandable – that’s a long way away to derive any sense of tangible (actual) value, in absence of a trade. Yes, it should continue to accrue value as we inch closer to that time, but this is the definition of “it’s a marathon, not a sprint.”

So if you’re leaning towards the righthand side, you need to be optimistic. MHJ is going to truly bust out this season, you’re going to nail your selection at 1.09, and the 2027 draft class will wind up being loaded. But as far as upside goes, I don’t want to leave out Coker, who emerged as perhaps the Panthers’ best pass catching last season.

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Sure, there’s a lot of red on there, but let’s remember these were the Carolina Panthers. Importantly Coker spiked a few weeks, including one WR1 and WR2 week apiece. That his value stands as half of a mid-level third-round pick is very suspect to me, especially as Coker should be featured as a starting wideout in Carolina next season.

And that’s ultimately what it comes down to, whether it be fantasy football, playing the lottery, or coaching the Richmond Greyhounds – belief (okay, ‘believe’ in that final instance as my wife just lovingly corrected me). To an extent, this game resembles the “choose your own adventure” books we used as kids. In this case, the adventure is attempting to navigate the unknown, often with merely a fragment or two of data.

Maybe MHJ breaks out and becomes one of the best assets in dynasty football. Maybe Coker becomes a solid weekly WR3 or flex play, and maybe pick 1.09 shows out similar to Thomas or McConkey did this past year. If that happens, you may already win the trade regardless of what happens come 2027.

Still, I just can’t go against St. Brown, who is the “Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants” receiver – he fits any type of roster and remains an elite asset. Rice was well on his way to being the dollar store St. Brown before an untimely injury, but he will only be 25 going into next season and was looking functioning as Patrick Mahomes’ top asset in the passing game. I don’t even really care about the picks at this point – the players are going to score in both the near- and long-term futures.

Given this, I’d need to see a bit more on the MHJ side of the deal. Either the 2027 pick needs to come sooner, or another nice young prospect needs to be thrown in. Or how about both?

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In this scenario I’ve removed the window dressing (non-first-round picks) from both sides of the deal. I’ve also bumped the 2027 pick up a year to 2026, and added an intriguing young talent in Jameson Williams. Two of the best three assets (and arguably the two best) still reside on the St. Brown side, but not there’s some legitimate intrigue happening on the opposite side. Yes, the quantity is greater, but this is often the case in “consolidation trades” – more importantly, a rebuilding squad gets a little younger, nabs a few picks, and sees the sun shining a bit brighter on the future of his or her team.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.

Eric Hardter