Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Buy-Low Running Backs
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
Much as with a wedding, this week’s NFL coaching carousel has provided us with each of the four key tenets:
- Something old: The hat tip here will go to new Raiders head coach Pete Carroll, who is now onto his fourth NFL team, following stints with the New York Jets, New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks (with an interlude at the University of Southern California Trojans). Carroll saw his most success in Seattle, including one Super Bowl win, and very nearly a second. Somewhat unceremoniously relieved of his duties in 2024, Carroll may provide Las Vegas with some much-needed professionalism and stability.
- Something new: Let’s hear it for Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Aaron Glenn (New York Jets), Liam Coen (Jacksonville) and Ben Johnson (Chicago), all first-time head coaches! The NFL should be and often is a meritocracy, and it’s good to see some new blood get their shot.
- Something borrowed: Okay, this one is a reach, But I’m going to go with the Tennessee Titans, who borrowed head coach Mike Vrabel before he reunited this off-season with the New England Patriots to serve as their leader. Vrabel famously spent eight seasons in New England as a player, helping the Patriots win three Super Bowls and landing in the team’s Hall of Fame.
- Something blue: Literally (uniform colors) and figuratively, this has to be the Detroit Lions, who lost both their coordinators in Glenn’s and Johnson’s head coaching opportunities. Such is the price of success, as head coach Dan Campbell begins to establish his coaching tree. One of the best head coaches and most respected leaders of men in the game, I believe Campbell will make the moves to ensure Detroit continues their success.
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Gettin’ Low
Who do you consider to be some buy-low running backs for a contending team in an eight-team PPR league?
I remain of the belief that any player can be a sensible buy, sell or hold depending on the explicit situation. However for contending teams, we’re obviously going to skew towards players scoring points, even if their shelf life is limited. Particularly in an eight-team league, studs are going to rule the day unless you have expansive starting lineups.
Still, depth is important as we have to assume bye weeks and injuries are going to happen, and need to game-plan accordingly. Given this, I won’t focus solely on elite ball carriers, and will also seek to identify players who could function as important bench pieces.
Dynasty ADP is current as of January, 2025.
Saquon Barkley, RB PHI (ADP = 24.0, RB6)
This one is extraordinarily straightforward. Barkley was the PPR RB2 overall despite skipping a meaningless week 18 contest, and the RB1 in terms of points per game. He’s passed the looks test in spades, continuing his postseason tear with strong performances each week. Despite this, he’s “only” the RB6 per the current ADP, going at the end of the second round in 12-team leagues.
While I’ll confess myself surprised by some of the lower-end outputs, Barkley’s ceiling was unparalleled. Of his nine RB1 performances, all but two yielded at least 26.7 points, including the fantasy semifinals in week 16. These were performances that won weeks.
Joe Mixon, RB HOU (ADP = 76.3, RB18)
While he wasn’t quite Barkley’s equal, and tailed off a bit as the year wound down, Mixon was ultimately still the PPR RB10 in terms of points per game. Importantly, much like his Eagles counterpart, he continued to look spry as the year went on, belying his age and the miles on his metaphorical tires.
While this trade utilizes a 10-team league instead of one with eight squads, the operative point is the same. He’s not going to cost you a first-round pick, and he’ll likely be in your starting lineup.
Chuba Hubbard, RB CAR (ADP = 84.8, RB22)
As shown below, Hubbard’s value increased commensurately with the injury to rookie teammate Jonathon Brooks, but as the RB22 I’d argue it’s still far too low. Hubbard’s play in the 2024 regular season was so good that he was re-signed to a contract midyear, despite Brooks’ selection in the NFL Draft’s second round. With nearly 1,200 rushing yards in only 15 games, and with Brooks likely missing most if not all of the 2025 season due to injury, there’s no reason to think Hubbard won’t again outperform his draft status.
Jaylen Warren, RB PIT (ADP = 104.5, RB30)
2024 in Pittsburgh represented a bit more of the “same old, same old” as it related to their running back room. First and foremost, Najee Harris received the bulk of the workload, with 299 touches as compared to Warren’s 158. Secondly, he continued to do the bare minimum with them, averaging a mere 4.0 YPC.
One thing is different come 2025 – at least at current, Harris isn’t part of the team’s plans, after his fifth-year option was declined. And while the Steelers could add competition via the draft of free agency, being the incumbent may put Harris in the driver’s seat. This gives him the potential to add solid depth to your roster, and outperform his mid-tier RB3 status.
Isaac Guerendo, RB SF (ADP = 152.5, RB46)
Stop the presses! The team’s preseason RB4 Guerendo performed significantly better following Elijah Mitchell being placed on Injured Reserve in the preseason, and when Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason were shelved late in the year. Sarcasm aside, the point is Guerendo dominated touches when given the opportunity, and looked good doing it with 5.0 YPC and 10.1 YPR.
McCaffrey is no spring chicken, and faced significant injury issues last season. Still, he’s the obvious starter when healthy. However, Mason and Mitchell are both free agents entering 2025, meaning the soon-to-be NFL sophomore may slot in as McCaffrey’s direct backup. If he manages to secure another full-time role, his end-of-2024 run could have been the tip of the iceberg.
All-in for Allen?
For a contending team in a 14-team, PPR league, which side do you prefer – Brandon Aiyuk, CJ Stroud and 2025 rookie pick 1.09, or Josh Allen, Derrick Henry and either 2025 pick 2.03 or a 2026 first-round pick? If the latter, which version do you prefer?
Let’s start with the DLF Trade Analyzer to see if the proposed passes the red face test.
Right off the bat we can see this is within the realm of reason – if one owner feels more bullish on Aiyuk’s 2025 turnaround coming off injury and less so on Henry continuing to defy Father Time, suddenly we could be looking at these values flipping. Similarly, maybe Stroud is anticipated to bounce back, and Allen – well, Allen, umm. Okay scratch that, Allen is as we all know unimpeachable as a fantasy asset, and it would be hard to assert otherwise.
And this is the point that will largely govern my feelings here. Even in onesie positions, players like Allen and Lamar Jackson offer enough fantasy output over the average to buck the typical party line that quarterbacks don’t matter as much as other positions. Further to this, 14-team (and larger) settings place an even greater importance on signal callers.
As such, Allen is the obvious best asset in the deal, which is reflected above. Aiyuk has a bit more to prove, but was viewed as a dynasty WR1 before his untimely injury, just outside the consensus first round of startup drafts.
This seems like something of an overcorrection to me, but I understand it. Aiyuk was injured in the middle of the 2024 season, and tore both his ACL and MCL. Given this, it wouldn’t be surprising for him to miss time this year, and/or not return as his prior self. In this scenario, the next time we would see him fully healthy could be in his age-28 season.
Continuing, Henry is a year-to-year rental at this point, one who I almost considered including in the question above as a buy-low option. But amazingly still viewed as a back-end dynasty RB1 despite his 31 years of age, this option doesn’t currently exist. There is assuredly downside in the assumption that Henry will continue to run hot, but past (and especially recent) performance seems to be the best predictor of future success.
All things considered, I have to go with the Allen side, and fairly easily despite the absence of a 2025 first-round pick. It has the best player, and also the fewest question marks. It does decrease total time of contention by adding Henry, but increases the likelihood of immediate success.
My fear, however, is your potential trade partner sees it the same way. So you could either move off the current pick 2.03, and possibly seek something even lesser in value. But if you want to level up to a 2026 first-round pick (always my recommendation as I’m not bullish on non-first-round picks, particularly in larger league settings), I believe you’ll need to add a sweetener on top.
Baltimore receiver Rashod Bateman saw his value increase this past season, coming in right behind fellow receiver Zay Flowers in the team’s pecking order. Bateman, or another intriguing young player has the potential to get you over the finish line, though if your trade partner is rebuilding you might have a hard time getting a future first from them anyhow.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Buy-Low Running Backs - January 28, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Trade Away Joe Burrow? - January 21, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Answering Your Dynasty Questions - January 14, 2025
