2024 NFL Draft: Dynasty Fantasy Football Winners and Losers from the NFC South
The NFC South has been a fluid competition over the past decade, with each of the four teams winning the division during this period. Keeping on trend, 2024 looks like another season with a wide open division full of opportunity. In dynasty, the 2024 NFL Draft has impacted the division, resulting in winners and losers for the skill position players on each team.
Atlanta Falcons
Draft Picks
- Round 1, Pick 8 – Michael Penix, QB Washington
- Round 2, Pick 3 – Ruhe Orhorhoro, DT Clemson
- Round 3, Pick 10 – Bralen Trice, OLB Washington
- Round 4, Pick 9 – Brandon Dorius, DT Oregon
- Round 5, Pick 8 – JD Bertrand, LB Notre Dame
- Round 6, Pick 10 – Jase McLellan, RB Alabama
- Round 6, Pick 11 – Casey Washington, WR Illinois
- Round 6, Pick 21 – Zion Logue, DT Georgia
Winner – Michael Penix
The biggest shock of the 2024 NFL Draft was the Falcons taking Penix Jr at pick eight, less than two months after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal worth $180m. While the macro-market saw Penix’s ADP drop, I want to highlight him as a winner due to the excellent draft capital and situation, playing the long game in dynasty. The common view is the expectation Penix Jr won’t become a starter until 2026, however consider there are many scenarios for a better-than-expected outcome: a Cousins injury, the Falcons underperforming, Cousins’ retirement, etc. Consensus is not factoring in the full range of outcomes in his profile, where Penix Jr is a lock to be valued as a first-round rookie draft pick when he secures the starting role.
Loser – Kirk Cousins
Despite the off-season move from the Vikings to an exciting situation surrounded by young talent, the drafting of Penix Jr resulted in Cousins being a loser of the draft. The move by the Falcons creates doubt on his long-term future, while posing questions surrounding his recovery from the season-ending Achilles injury suffered in 2023. Many will point to the contract as comfort he can maintain his job and dynasty value for at least two seasons, however we’re also in an off-season that saw the largest dead cap transaction of all time in Russell Wilson and the highest ever salary cap. Cousins is under immediate pressure to succeed with a top-ten draft pick behind him on the depth chart.
Whilst Penix Jr’s rookie ADP has fallen post-draft, there is a guaranteed future rise in value as soon as he becomes the starter in Atlanta (Credit: DLF May Superflex Rookie ADP)
Carolina Panthers
Draft Picks
- Round 1, Pick 32 – Xavier Legette, WR South Carolina
- Round 2, Pick 14 – Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas
- Round 3, Pick 8 – Trevin Wallace, LB Kentucky
- Round 4, Pick 1 – Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE Texas
- Round 5, Pick 22 – Chau Smith-Wade, CB Washington State
- Round 6, Pick 24 – Jaden Crumedy, DT Mississippi State
- Round 7, Pick 20 – Michael Barrett, LB Michigan
Winner – Jonathon Brooks
On the back of receiving top-50 draft capital, Brooks is a clear winner of the draft. The landing spot with the Panthers could be seen as a negative based on last year, however the new regime under head coach Dave Canales provides a new hope for the franchise. There is an obvious commitment to the run game with the free agent additions of offensive guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. Plus, the wide receiving core is league average and there is no tight end of consequence, leading to a solid pass game opportunity for Brooks. The key indicator of future usage and talent is the draft capital, especially considering Brooks is coming off a torn ACL injury. He has risen in rookie ADP as the clear RB1 of the class.
Loser – Jonathan Mingo
As part of the same article last year, Mingo was highlighted as a winner of the draft, after being taken as a top-40 selection by the Panthers. This year, Xavier Legette was another wide receiver taken as a top-40 pick, resulting in Mingo becoming a loser of the draft. With no ties to the new coaching staff, a re-tooled offensive roster including Diontae Johnson and the addition of rookie Legette, the future is bleak for Mingo. He joins fellow former day two wide receiver Terrace Marshall as a player who has slid down the Panthers’ depth chart, thus becoming essentially irrelevant in dynasty leagues. The process move is to pivot for any third-round draft pick, as the likelihood of Mingo becoming a fantasy contributor is extremely slim.
New Orleans Saints
Draft Picks
- Round 1, Pick 14 – Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State
- Round 2, Pick 9 – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama
- Round 5, Pick 15 – Spencer Rattler, QB South Carolina
- Round 5, Pick 35 – Bub Means, WR Pittsburgh
- Round 5, Pick 40 – Jaylan Ford, LB Texas
- Round 6, Pick 23 – Khristian Boyd, DT Northern Iowa
- Round 7, Pick 19 – Josiah Ezirim, OT Eastern Kentucky
Winner – Rashid Shaheed
With little draft activity on offensive skill positions, it was a difficult task to choose a draft winner, however as the Saints only used a fifth-round pick on wide receiver Bub Means, Shaheed is the set-in-stone WR2 of the offense and draft winner. While Means does offer a similar skill set as a proficient deep threat, the lack of strong draft capital is a great result for Shaheed. Also, with the addition of first-round offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga, this will give the quarterback additional protection to make the most of Shaheed’s calling card, production down the field on deeper passing routes. While remaining volatile on a weekly basis, Shaheed is a winner of the draft.
Loser – Jake Haener
The selection of quarterback Spencer Rattler in round five provides competition for last year’s fourth-round pick Haener. While the draft capital isn’t great, Rattler has an excellent pedigree as the number one quarterback college recruit in 2019 – a five-star prospect graded higher than Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels at 24/7 Sports. While it didn’t work out for Rattler at Oklahoma, he rebounded at South Carolina and was the first quarterback taken after round one of this year’s draft. Haener is entering his second year in the league, as a 25-year-old player who missed six games last season due to failing a drug test for a performance-enhancing substance. This will be a training camp battle to watch, as an opportunity behind incumbent starter Derek Carr.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Draft Picks
- Round 1, Pick 26 – Graham Barton, C Duke
- Round 2, Pick 25 – Chris Braswell, EDGE Alabama
- Round 3, Pick 26 – Tykee Smith, S Georgia
- Round 3, Pick 29 – Jalen McMillan, WR Washington
- Round 4, Pick 25 – Bucky Irving, RB Oregon
- Round 6, Pick 44 – Elijah Klein, G Texas El-Paso
- Round 7, Pick 26 – Devin Culp, TE Washington
Winner – Baker Mayfield
The 2024 NFL Draft was extremely kind to Mayfield, landing outstanding offensive lineman Barton in round one, plus a couple of capable weapons in the passing game in the middle rounds of the draft. As more of a pocket passer than dual-threat, playing behind a solid offensive line will be key to Mayfield’s passing success. McMillan is a surprise selection on day two, adding solid depth behind starters Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Finally, landing Irving in round four gives the Bucs another strong option out of the backfield, as one of this year’s best receiving running backs. The combination of various moves makes Mayfield a winner, where he can continue to be a solid QB2 option over the next few years.
Baker Mayfield is valued around the 2024 rookie 1.12, an easy target for teams looking for a reliable QB2 in the short-term (Credit: DLF Trade Analyzer)
Loser – Trey Palmer
The addition of fellow wide receiver McMillan and running back Irving resulted in Palmer being a loser on draft night. As a former day three selection in 2023, Palmer faces increased direct competition for the WR3 role in McMillan, a player with a higher profile and significantly better draft capital. Whilst McMillan is primarily a slot guy, the move can only be seen as a negative for Palmer. Add in the fact Irving is an excellent receiver in the short game and the combination with Rachaad White figures to cap the ceiling of Palmer from a fantasy perspective. It was a difficult draft for Palmer, who figures to be a roster-clogging asset in standard sized leagues and with limited appeal in the deepest of settings.
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