Dynasty Archetypes: Running Back

As a dynasty manager, imagine having the ability to accurately predict the future performance of a player, based on the past…

In this new series, I’ll be exploring 'Dynasty Archetypes', a method of predicting future player fantasy production based upon grouping players with similar traits, usage and output. By understanding a player projection or expected journey based on the results of similar player types, it is easier to calculate the range of outcomes of the asset and facilitate the optimal team build.

In the previous article, I outlined the different archetypes of quarterback. The focus is now shifting to running back - the highest risk/reward position in dynasty. The running back archetypes used in this article are relatively simple, with the key driver focusing on the percentage of fantasy points per game achieved through passing production (PFPPG) - receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. The parameters for the running back archetypes are: 0-20% PFPPG for ‘runner’, 20-40% ‘balanced’ and 40%+ for the ‘receiver’ running back archetype.

Running Back Archetypes

Receiver

The year is no longer 2002 and the most common league format isn’t standard scoring. We are in the era of points per reception (PPR), where the most sought-after running back archetype is ‘receiver’. While it should be noted the role is not specific for purely receiving work, I’ve grouped players in this bucket on the basis of 40%+ of their fantasy production coming through the passing game.