Dynasty Archetypes: Quarterback
As a dynasty manager, imagine having the ability to accurately predict the future performance of a player, based on the past…
In this new series I’ll be exploring Dynasty Archetypes: a method of predicting future player fantasy production, based upon grouping players with similar traits, usage, and output. By understanding a player projection or expected journey based on the results of similar player types, it is easier to calculate the range of outcomes of the asset and facilitate the optimal team build.
The first article in the series focuses on the cornerstone of any successful dynasty team, the position that should be central to your strategy regardless of the stage within the dynasty cycle – quarterback. The archetypes used are relatively simple, with the key driver focusing on the percentage of rushing fantasy points per game (RFPPG) in relation to overall fantasy points per game (OFPPG). The parameters for the quarterback archetypes are the following: 0-10% RFPPG for Pocket Passer, 10-30% Balanced, and 30%+ Dual-Threat quarterback.
Quarterback Archetypes:
Dual-Threat
The most coveted quarterback archetype, dual-threat quarterback is the perfect combination of fantasy ceiling and floor, where a high-end outcome provides a game-changing edge within your dynasty leagues. The dual-threat archetype is a player with dynamic ability as a rusher, in conjunction with a solid or developing passing game.
This archetype is clouded by a number of common misconceptions, firstly that a quarterback who is more proficient as a runner and less as a passer is more risky with a lower floor on any given fantasy matchup. Think of it this way, in traditional four-point passing touchdown leagues, a 55 yard passing touchdown equates to the same amount as a two yard rushing touchdown (6.2 fantasy points). Any time a dual-threat quarterback is in your lineup, the weekly floor and ceiling are higher.
Josh Allen | Credit: Kirby Lee
Another misconception is the view of this archetype is the perception the dual-threat quarterback is at a much higher rate of becoming a fantasy bust due to their limitations as a passer. Many will highlight recent examples of this archetype losing their starting job, such as Trey Lance or Justin Fields, however, this is not considering the full dynasty landscape. There is a common bias, however, it should be noted it is not only dual-threat quarterbacks who can bust, look at the likes of Josh Rosen or Mac Jones as non-dual-threat players who have failed to meet expectations. The key takeaway is that no matter what archetype the player aligns to, the failure to consistently win games in the NFL will result in a lack of job security.
The table below, highlights the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks in FPPG (minimum 10 starts) for 2023, their respective RFPPG, and dynasty archetype. In terms of the dual-threat archetype, it is clear when performing at the higher end of the spectrum this archetype can provide the edge in dynasty – with all of the top three landing in this group. The flip side is the fact Fields was a top-10 producer and is now a backup in Pittsburgh, however, note this is down to losing games and his contract becoming too expensive to make a long-term commitment, not because of his dynasty archetype.
The QB1 results from 2023 show a split of dynasty archetypes, with the dual-threat group providing an edge in dynasty (Credit: DLF Player Gamelog App)
Balanced
Most dynasty quarterbacks will fall within the balanced archetype, as a player who is a solid passer with rushing upside and the ideal blend of risk and reward. This archetype can achieve excellent fantasy production in any given season, with the support of hyper-efficient touchdown numbers or a facilitative environment for a high passing volume.
There is a perception in which the mass market views the balanced quarterback archetype as one with longevity and job security, based on the likes of Patrick Mahomes. In general, this archetype will have a longer career than a dual-threat quarterback, however, in dynasty playing on two to three year windows puts less emphasis on longevity. It should be noted the archetype of a balanced quarterback can transform into the pocket passer quarterback towards the end of their career, as the rushing ability declines, with a recent example of Aaron Rodgers.
The table above highlights the majority of top-12 quarterbacks in FPPG last season belong to the balanced archetype. As expected, the blend of passing and rushing equates to solid numbers, where it is more difficult to be a league-winning asset and finish as QB1 overall in any given season.
Patrick Mahomes | Credit: Jay Biggerstaff
Pocket Passer
The pocket passer is the opposite of the dual-threat archetype, displaying excellent passing ability and limited rushing upside. There is a notion of this being a safe asset due to passing ability and historic conditioning of the mind to the quarterback position, however, the pocket passer is the riskiest archetype of all.
Firstly, the lack of rush upside reduces the fantasy ceiling and floor of the player, with high reliance on an optimal environment to succeed; passing volume, excellent protection, and capable weapons. Also, the pocket passer is at a higher risk of major injury, logically surrounded by offensive and defensive linemen on each play and at a higher probability of an unexpected blind-side hit or a player falling at the lower extremities. Again, linking back to the historical view of quarterback, being an excellent passer creates a perception of enhanced job security. As discussed, no archetype is more secure than another, winning games and staying healthy are the key drivers in longevity.
Jared Goff | Credit: Lon Horwedel
The pocket passer is the most volatile and dangerous asset to own in dynasty leagues. The upside is lower, and the risk of injury or poor performance is higher, yet perception does not align with this theory. In order for strong fantasy output to be delivered by this archetype it requires an outlier season in the touchdown output, insane passing volume, or hyper-efficiency. The results in the first image above show historic passing seasons from Brock Purdy and Jared Goff, yet both were unable to deliver a mid-QB1 performance.
2024 Rookie Application
With a combination of dual-threat and balanced archetypes, the 2024 quarterback class is one of the highest potential groups of recent memory (Credit: Sports Reference College Football)
Reviewing the data for the incoming 2024 class, the majority of archetypes land on the higher end of balanced, with the exception of Michael Penix Jr who is at the lower end. The sole dual-threat archetype belongs to Jayden Daniels, who has the highest ceiling of this year’s prospects. It is worth noting the rushing output is easier in college versus weaker opposition, resulting in the potential negative trending on RFPPG scores. With this in mind, borderline archetypes are likely to drop into a different archetype, for example, Penix Jr would become a pocket passer quarterback, operating with a lower ceiling and floor than his college production.
As much as Caleb Williams is compared to modern-day greats like Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, his RFPPG is excellent, meaning a higher ceiling than expected. Drake Maye and Bo Nix both display solid numbers, with JJ McCarthy settling in as a balanced archetype. Rushing is a key catalyst to fantasy production for quarterbacks, where this year’s class is excellent overall, meaning this has the potential to be one of the greatest fantasy quarterback classes of all time. It is plausible that 50% of your 12-team round one superflex rookie drafts consist of quarterbacks.
Overall
Exploring the dynasty archetypes at quarterback has highlighted many incorrect perceptions in the dynasty landscape. Taking shots on dual-threat archetypes is a smart move to win big and is less risky than average, provided the job security remains strong. The riskiest archetype is pocket passer, where you expose yourself to the same risk of job loss as other groups, however, there is limited to no opportunity for the high-end QB1 finish. The ideal roster build is likely a mix of all archetypes in a portfolio, with more dual-threat overall.
Based on the results, Daniels is a quarterback who deserves to be in consideration within the same tier as Williams, as holding a higher floor/ceiling combination and true league-winning upside. It also clouds the long-term expectations of Penix Jr, where you could be holding an asset for two to three years before starting in Atlanta, to then be a pocket passer and add further risk to his profile.
The dynasty archetypes I’ve used in this article are guidelines, where you can tweak and create your own, base it on other specific metrics, body type, etc. The idea is to highlight that grouping players can help you predict future players with similar characteristics, allowing you to formulate a strategy to acquire a perfect blend of archetypes, setting you up to win in your dynasty leagues. Overall, 2024 is an excellent class to replenish your dynasty rosters at quarterback.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
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