Monday Mocks: January Dynasty 1QB Startup Mock Draft

Ryan McDowell Posted On January 15, 2024

Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you…you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys, and more.

Our January dynasty ADP mock drafts are wrapping up and that brand-new data will be posted here on the site very soon. Until then, I wanted to share a sneak peek at how the top players in the game are being valued.

I have noticed over the years that our January data varies greatly from the previous month. This checks out when considering the general mindset of dynasty players this time of year. Not only is January a time of resolutions and fresh starts in life, but in dynasty fantasy football as well. We often see veteran players lose value while younger players scream up the board. Because of this trend, I’ll focus on each player’s past and current value and how that has changed in recent months.

ROUND ONE:

1.01 Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

Jefferson dealt with multiple injuries this year, playing just ten games. Those injuries and an uncertain quarterback situation for the Vikings are still not enough to push Jefferson from the top line. For the fifteenth straight month, Jefferson is the dynasty 1.01 and WR1 based on our ADP data.

1.02 CeeDee Lamb, DAL

Lamb enjoyed the best season of his career and has now established a new high mark with his ADP. The Cowboys star has consistently been valued as a top five overall asset and a top three receiver, but his huge season pushed him to the WR2 spot for the first time in his career. While Lamb could slip back down the board in the coming months, the top three wideouts should be somewhat interchangeable this offseason.

1.03 Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN

Once considered a coin-flip with his former college teammate Jefferson, Chase has fallen outside of the top two wide receivers for the first time since October, 2021. Chase also dealt with multiple injuries this season, though he only missed one game. The more notable injury for Chase’s production was to his quarterback, Joe Burrow, who missed the final seven games of the year. Although his value has taken a slight hit, Chase obviously remains one of the elite dynasty assets moving forward.

1.04 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET

After starting the year as a late first-round dynasty startup pick, St. Brown established himself as a top four receiver and top four overall pick. The 24-year-old target hog also showed he can still put up huge numbers with other threats in the offense, as rookies Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs each had huge seasons, as well.

1.05 AJ Brown, WR PHI

The Eagles’ top pass-catcher has seen his value take a slight hit. Earlier in the season, Brown was locked in as the WR3 and 1.03 startup pick but a slow second half of the year has allowed Lamb and St. Brown to overtake him. Brown finished outside of the top 24 fantasy receivers in each of the final four games and suffered a Week 18 injury that cost him the first round of the playoffs. At 26, Brown is not old, but he’s a couple of years older than all other receivers in this tier, suggesting the slow slide could continue in the coming months.

1.06 Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ

By the end of last offseason, Wilson actually had a higher ADP in redraft leagues than in dynasty, which is very rare for a 23-year-old former first-round pick. The story of Wilson’s season all played out on the opening series in Week One when Aaron Rodgers was injured. Inconsistency and frustration followed in what Wilson would call the “worst year of my life.” Even with this disappointing production, Wilson’s value mostly stayed steady. While he did fall out of the first round and down to the WR10 spot, he’s clearly back now, holding down the WR6 and 1.06 positions.

1.07 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET

It has been a fast rise for Lions rookie back Gibbs, who claims the dynasty RB1 spot for the first time ever. Gibbs finished as a top three fantasy back in six games this season, tied for most in the league. Even when sharing a backfield, he was able to put his explosiveness on display and showed the upside we didn’t always see from that other rookie.

1.08 Bijan Robinson, RB ATL

Of course, by “other rookie” I’m referring to Robinson, who for the first time in his career, is not the dynasty RB1 based on our ADP data. Robinson narrowly slides to the RB2 spot but the fall from his previous ADP high of 1.03 is more noticeable. While Robinson did not meet the unreal expectations placed upon him, he did post seven RB1 games on the year. Perhaps even more encouraging was the Falcons’ dismissal of former head coach Arthur Smith, who clearly limited the upside of Robinson, along with Drake London and Kyle Pitts. I don’t think there is really a buy-low opportunity on Robinson, but I will reach out to my leaguemates to make sure.

1.09 Breece Hall, RB NYJ

We’ve got a little run on ball carriers as three straight come off the board following the six wideouts. Hall ended the season on a high note. He finished as a top three scorer in three of the final four weeks of the fantasy season, pushing him into the same tier as the two talented rookie backs. Just as Wilson will benefit from the fresh start of the offseason and the presumed return of Rodgers, so too will Hall. Expect him to remain a first-round pick for much of the offseason.

1.10 Puka Nacua, WR LAR

The rookie receiver is finally being drafted and valued like the record-setting player he was this season. Prior to this month, Nacua’s monthly ADP never got higher than 21 overall as the WR14. Now, he’s jumped up to the WR7 spot as a top ten overall pick. This is where Nacua should have been for months and we’ll continue to see him here all offseason.

1.11 Tyreek Hill, WR MIA

Hill had another monster season, leading the league in receiving yards and finishing as the WR1, based on average fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the end of the season was unkind to Hill, who dealt with a nagging injury and fell short of his 2,000-yard goal. Hill didn’t post a top 15 fantasy performance since Week 13 and that caused the four-spot fall since last month. This slide will continue with questions about the Dolphins’ offense entering the offseason, along with Hill approaching age 30.

1.12 Chris Olave, WR NO

The final member of Round One is Saints receiver Olave. I think there is a very good chance that rookie Marvin Harrison will enter the first round as early as next month. This could cause Olave (or Hill) to fall to the second round. Olave earned an ADP as high as 1.08 and WR5 earlier this season and he could fall a bit more in the coming months.

ROUND TWO:

2.01 DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
2.02 Christian McCaffrey, RB SF
2.03 Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
2.04 Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
2.05 DJ Moore, WR CHI
2.06 Kyren Williams, RB LAR
2.07 Deebo Samuel, WR SF
2.08 Sam LaPorta, TE DET
2.09 Michael Pittman, WR IND
2.10 Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
2.11 Jordan Addison, WR MIN
2.12 Tee Higgins, WR CIN

ROUND THREE:

3.01 De’Von Achane, RB MIA
3.02 DK Metcalf, WR SEA
3.03 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
3.04 Zay Flowers, WR BAL
3.05 Tank Dell, WR HOU
3.06 Nico Collins, WR HOU
3.07 Rashee Rice, WR KC
3.08 Kenneth Walker, RB SEA
3.09 Travis Etienne, RB JAX
3.10 Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
3.11 Drake London, WR ATL
3.12 Saquon Barkley, RB NYG

ROUND FOUR:

4.01 Jalen Hurts, QB PHI
4.02 James Cook, RB BUF
4.03 Trey McBride, TE ARI
4.04 Josh Allen, QB BUF
4.05 George Pickens, WR PIT
4.06 Jayden Reed, WR GB
4.07 Rachaad White, RB TB
4.08 CJ Stroud, QB HOU
4.09 Stefon Diggs, WR BUF
4.10 Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF
4.11 Mark Andrews, TE BAL
4.12 TJ Hockenson, TE MIN

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.