Dynasty GAAP Memo: Warren Buffett Theory and Underperforming Players
If you have read my work before, you know I write in the form of “accounting memos” and apply accounting and finance themes to dynasty fantasy football. For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will supply background and then outline the applicable “guidance,” or accounting literature utilized. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic. To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”, a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” (and yes, my wife did come up with it).
Purpose
The purpose of this memo is to remind fantasy managers not to overreact in the first few weeks of the NFL season.
Background
Every year, dynasty managers spend countless hours doing fantasy research throughout the off-season. Then, every year, we overreact after being starved of NFL football after one or two weeks. Managers should be cognizant of recency bias, which is the tendency to overemphasize the importance of recent experiences. In other words, managers should not overreact and disregard the research previously performed. In fact, the contrarian thing might be to double down.
Warren Buffett is one of the best-known fundamental investors in the world. Buffett famously said to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Fantasy managers should always look for a good price and take advantage of opportunities when others are fearful. The concept is that it is much better to buy a great business (or player) at a good price than a good business (or player) at a great price. This premise is what I call the “Buffett Dynasty Theory”. This theory is one of my favorites to evoke early in the season (first one-three weeks). Applying the “Buffett Theory” is to intentionally underreact during this time period and, in doing so, you can likely get potential deals on players who potentially would not have been available just two weeks prior.
In the prior year’s memo on this theory, I targeted DJ Moore. In week one of the 2023 season, you might remember his 2 targets; 2 receptions; 25 yards; 0 TDs stat line. After which, he exploded for the remainder of the season on his way to a WR1 PPR finish. Often players have duds weeks and sometimes those duds come in week one and week two. This memo will explore those players that I would be inquiring about in dynasty utilizing this theory.
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based on real dynasty startups.
- Investopedia: World’s leading source of financial content on the web.
Analysis
As discussed above, this memo will identify players who present buying opportunities utilizing the Buffett Dynasty Theory. I did try to identify players who could be available at a discount. For instance, Garrett Wilson and Brandon Aiyuk have had slow starts, but I don’t think their owners are going to be selling at a discount. Please see the players identified below:
Michael Pittman Jr, WR IND
The good news for Pittman is that he is averaging 7.5 targets per game thus far. This extrapolates to north of 120 targets over the season. The bad news is that Anthony Richardson has not taken a step forward as a passer in year two. However, Pittman was successful in years prior with the corpse of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, Nick Foles, and Gardner Minshew at QB. This is a young WR (26) with a young QB with growing pains. His time will come, and I would be surprised if he doesn’t end up as a top 24 PPR receiver in 2024, which he has done for the last three seasons (WR17, WR20, and WR13 in 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively).
If owners are panicked, I would happily send a late first for Pittman.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
Kelce not producing just feels weird. I know that he is 34, but he has been so consistent for so long that it doesn’t compute. Because of that, I think a lot of owners are scared and I’m not ready to call it a career for Zeus quite yet. Let’s not forget that he was TE3 last year and has been a top 3 tight end in PPR formats for the last eight seasons. With the injury to Isiah Pacheco, I would expect Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to target their perennial All-Pro TE early and often in the coming weeks. Also, let’s not forget last January/February in the playoffs (just seven months ago) where Kelce had 93 yards, 116 yards, 75 yards and 71 yards on the way to the Chiefs repeat.
I would easily pay a second as a contender for Kelce (especially in TEP).
Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
McLaurin’s issues to me are rooted in his YPC metric. If you look at historicals, he has always been a downfield threat and averaged between 12 and 16 yards per reception. So far, he is averaging 4.8 in 2024. If you extrapolate his eight receptions upon an average midpoint of 14 yards per catch, this results in a more palatable 112 yards or 56 yards per game.
Similar to Pittman above, McLaurin has produced with much less at QB than Jayden Daniels. I expect Daniels to improve and move the ball further downfield, where McLaurin is a weapon in the coming weeks.
I would pay a second for McLaurin.
Diontae Johnson, WR CAR
I’ve been a Johnson truther for three years, so why would I stop now? Through two games, he is still an elite target earner. Essentially getting 12 targets in 1.5 games (he didn’t finish the game in week 1). If the Panther’s benching of Bryce Young after two weeks is any indication, the offense cannot get worse, right? Last year on the Panthers Adam Thielen at 33 caught 103 balls for 1,014 yards. Volume can be king in bad offenses and Johnson should be featured.
I would pay a second for Johnson.
Tank Dell, WR HOU
I actually think the buying window for Dell hasn’t fully opened yet. I anticipated his decline in snaps and targets with the arrival of Stefon Diggs in the off-season. You can see that Dell is coming off the field in two WR sets for Diggs and Nico Collins based on his snap shares above. The reason he is included here is for monitoring purposes. We saw Dell erupt as a rookie as the second option in the Houston passing attack before his injury. I think a year from now, he will be back in that role after Diggs signs elsewhere. That theory is why I am buying. The talent is clearly there, we just have to be patient for the opportunity.
If Dell continues his lackluster production, I will send a late first and a second in a few more weeks as more and more owners panic.
Injured Studs
This season’s injury lists are insane. If anyone has multiple injured stars, they might be desperate for production today. I would be kicking the tires on all these players.
Non-Producing Rookies
Similar to the injury bug above, if anyone is souring on a rookie (especially rookies selected in the first round of rookie drafts), I would be buying. Looking at you Rome Odzune.
Conclusion
There are countless other players that could be added to this list. This is just a reminder to resist bias and don’t panic sell. In fact, this is the perfect time to be buying and double down on underperforming assets utilizing the Buffett Dynasty Theory.
“The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.”
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Post-Mortem Rookie Re-Draft - December 12, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Buying The WR Dip Or Falling Knife? - November 14, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Sam Darnold’s Recession and Recovery - October 3, 2024
