Dynasty GAAP Memo: Wide Receiver Targets And The Indefinite Life Strategy
If you have read my work before, you know I write in the form of “accounting memos” and apply accounting and finance themes to dynasty fantasy football. For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will supply background and then outline the applicable “guidance,” or accounting literature utilized. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic. To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”, a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” (and yes, my wife did come up with it).
Purpose
The purpose of this memo is to evaluate the dynasty value of wide receivers (“WR”) and the potential market inefficiencies in order to identify buying opportunities.
Background
When I started GAAP a year a go, my second-ever memo was the one I am most proud of, where I coined the “Indefinite-Life Strategy”. You can read it here if you’re curious about how GAAP started and aren’t scared of a GoogleDrive PDF. I think this was one of the memos that led to me joining DLF.
For background, the “Indefinite-Life Strategy” is centered around the longevity of WRs. Their longevity makes them sought-after assets. Therefore, to maximize returns, fantasy managers need to target WRs who meet this requirement. For this discussion, we can define long-term assets as greater than or equal to four years and establish that WRs often fall off after 30. This allows us a player age precision of 18 to 26 to consider to be targets.
Managers will have to evaluate how to acquire these assets. In accounting, most assets depreciate. This means an asset’s value will reduce in value over the course of its useful life. This is true for any player and dynasty team. However, there are certain accounting assets, such as land and intangibles, that have “indefinite lives” that do not depreciate over time.
Dynasty teams have similar assets in draft capital. Each team in dynasty gets rookie draft capital annually and it always will hold value. The “Indefinite-Life” strategy is a team-building methodology that commits to constantly trading draft capital to acquire more proven assets. This methodology is centered around the theme that not all highly coveted rookies pan out in the NFL (looking at you N’Keal Harry and Jalen Raegor). The overall objective is to mitigate risk while not sacrificing all the long-term stability that young players offer.
To summarize, by trading draft capital for proven WRs who are younger than 27, the indefinite life strategy creates longevity while also reducing the risk of rookie busts. This strategy is very viable for contenders and “middle-of-the-road” teams. If consistently applied, this strategy can extend your championship window “indefinitely”.
This is an abbreviated explanation, but I really encourage everyone to review the previous memo. It dives even further into how targeting multiple players that profile as WR2 can be lucrative as well as other potential biases that could impact your dynasty teams.
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based on real dynasty startups
- Investopedia: World’s leading source of financial content on the web
Analysis
As discussed above, managers can apply the Indefinite-Life Strategy to directly target proven WRs who are proven assets and younger than 27 as opposed to rookie lottery tickets.
Below I have outlined various players and analysis that would meet these requirements:
Tee Higgins, CIN (25)
Higgins has finished as WR28, WR24, WR18, and WR51 in his career, which is good, but definitely not great. As a result, he is often seen as the maid of honor and not the bride in the Bengals passing attack due to the presence of Ja’Marr Chase. In 2024, Higgins is playing on the franchise tag, which means he will likely be sporting a different uniform in 2025. This projection is based upon the assumption that a change of scenery will bring 140+ targets, the contract year is undefeated and my gut tells me we haven’t seen the best of Higgins yet.
As a result, I would send a late first for Higgins.
DK Metcalf, SEA (26) – Featured in 2023’s memo as well.
Metcalf had a down year in 2024 and finished as WR21 in PPR. If his owners are souring on him, I would be buying. DK is a freak of nature with 10+ TD upside and a new pass-happy offensive coordinator.
I would send a mid-first for Metcalf.
Nico Collins, HOU (25)
Collin’s 2023 breakout, where he finished as WR12 in PPR, might put his price tag above some of the players on this list. However, there are fantasy managers who are thrown off by the presence of Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. While I do anticipate some regression in efficiency and yardage, Collins has prototypical size, great advanced analytics, and is connected to a young elite passer in CJ Stroud. I would be surprised if Collins doesn’t finish as a WR2 for a couple of seasons.
I would send a mid-first for Collins.
Michael Pittman Jr, IND (25) – Featured in 2023’s memo as well
Pittman has steadily increased his production each season and has become a viable PPR scorer with 88 (WR17 finish), 99 (WR20 finish), 109 (WR13 finish) receptions in 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively. This is corroborated by an insane 156 targets in 2023. Owners might be wary of Anthony Richardson’s passing ability, but I love the target floor here and think we might not have seen his ceiling yet.
I would pay a mid-first for Pittman. For context, I just sent a 2026 late first and Alvin Kamara for Pittman and a 2026 late third.
DJ Moore, CHI (27) – Featured in 2023’s memo as well
Moore’s consistency in the NFL might only be second to Mike Evans. Since entering the NFL, Moore has finished as a top 24 WR in five of his six seasons. Not to mention his WR6 PPR finish in 2023 and the arrival of a “generational QB prospect” in Caleb Williams. To me, Moore should be a couple of tiers higher in most rankings. I am not scared off by the arrival of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.
I would pay a mid-first for Moore.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA (25)
Waddle had the first down year of his career in 2023 when he finished as WR34 primarily due to injury. Prior to that, he finished as WR13 as a rookie and WR8 as a sophomore. The difference is that he won as a rookie due to volume with 104 catches and won with efficiency as a sophomore averaging over 18 yards per catch. I’ll bet on the player who has found premier fantasy success in multiple manners.
I would pay a mid-first+ for Waddle.
DeVonta Smith, PHI (25)
I believe most of us forgot that Smith finished as PPR WR9 in 2022. He regressed in 2023 along with the entire Eagles offense. If anyone has turned on him, I would be kicking the tires as I think Smith is an elite route runner in the NFL and will be the definition of consistency for your dynasty teams for the next five years.
I would pay a mid-first+ for Smith.
George Pickens, PIT (23)- Bonus #1
Pickens doesn’t meet the age requirements. However, it’s kind of crazy that a 23-year-old who just had 1,140 yards can be had for a first. He profiles as a boom-bust player, but I’ll take the upside. I also think Russell Wilson is a QB upgrade from the Steelers’ 2022 QB room. For context, Courtland Sutton caught ten TDs from Wilson in Denver.
I would pay a late first.
Rashee Rice, KC (24)- Bonus #2
Rice is surprisingly old at 24 entering his sophomore season for the Chiefs. Similar to Pickens above, he doesn’t meet the age requirements for this model but fits the concept. It is pretty much confirmed that the suspension is not during the 2024 season. The NFL almost always waits for the legal process to be finalized before revealing suspensions and his case is scheduled for 2025. After which, Rice will still only be 25 and have two seasons to establish himself (and hopefully stay out of trouble) with Patrick Mahomes. During the second half of 2023, I wrote that Rice could be the second coming of Amon-Ra St. Brown and I still believe he has that upside.
I would pay a mid-first for Rice.
Conclusion
Per the analysis and discussion above, fantasy managers should utilize the indefinite-life strategy to target WRs who profile as fantasy WR2s (with WR1 upside) and are 27 or younger. The purpose is to minimize risk while maximizing longevity.
A great example of the upside of this strategy is Brandon Aiyuk. He was featured in 2023’s memo and had a July 2023 ADP of 58 prior to jumping to 23 in August 2024. As a result, he likely priced himself out of this concept. Meaning, that while targeting players with high floors, there might be embedded ceilings as well.
“Investing is all about protecting your downside. The upside will take care of itself.”
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Post-Mortem Rookie Re-Draft - December 12, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Buying The WR Dip Or Falling Knife? - November 14, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Sam Darnold’s Recession and Recovery - October 3, 2024
