Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Anthony Richardson and Puka Nacua
Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, I’ll cover two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and will generally write about the biggest performers from that particular week. I’ll discuss how well he’s lived up to expectations at the NFL level, and then I’ll grade the player in three categories. Those categories are their performance to date, rookie season potential, and long-term upside.
Anthony Richardson, QB IND
Week 1 stats: 24 of 37 (64.9% completion), 223 yards, one touchdown, one interception, ten carries for 40 yards and one rushing touchdown, 21.9 fantasy points, QB4 on the week.
Richardson was a five-star recruit and the top dual-threat quarterback prospect in the 2020 class. He committed to Florida offers from the likes of Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia.
He redshirted his freshman year and then appeared in eight games in 2021, starting three. He threw for 529 yards and six touchdowns, with five interceptions. He added 401 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on the ground, asserting his dual-threat dominance from the jump. He took over as the starter in 2022, starting all 12 games. He threw for 2,549 yards and 17 touchdowns, with nine interceptions, and rushed for another 654 yards and nine touchdowns.
The next step in the rookie’s NFL journey was visiting Indianapolis, where he obliterated every athletic test at the 2023 NFL combine. When all was said and done, Richardson tested off the chart and became the most athletic quarterback ever to attend the event.
Some highlights from Richardson’s testing include:
- 4.43 40 – 23.44 mph – (fastest in NFL during the 2022 season with pads was 22.11 mph)
- 40.5 vertical jump – Combine record
- 10’9 broad – Combine record
It’s no stretch to say coming out of school Richardson was raw as a prospect, especially in terms of accuracy on short and intermediate passes, but he displayed qualities that you just can’t coach. His ability to maneuver the pocket, throw the ball away when necessary, and not get sacked for no reason takes most young quarterbacks time to learn. Richardson was elite compared to the other 2023 quarterback process in terms of sack percentage on pressured dropbacks. Richardson came in at 9.2%, Bryce Young 12.5%, C.J. Stroud 14.1%, and Will Levis was sacked on 26.8% of his pressured dropbacks.
In his first start as an NFL quarterback, Richardson showed us that he is everything we thought he was; an incredible athlete with a cannon for an arm who occasionally struggles with accuracy. He completed 24 of 37 passes for 223 yards and one touchdown, with one interception. He also rushed for 40 yards on ten carries, including a touchdown in which he used his size and physicality to break into the endzone. He also showed some of the issues that caused concern amongst scouts, including several off-target thrones where his receivers bailed him out. One of Richardson’s tantalizing traits coming out of school was his deep ball, and that was on display as well on a 39-yard competition to his number one receiver, Michael Pittman.
Richardson sits at QB10 overall, going off the board as the 87th overall player in the eighth round of one-QB leagues. It’s not difficult to see him rising in the coming months if he continues to put up top-five fantasy numbers at the position like he did in week one.
Richardson’s rest-of-season potential and long-term upside earn an A+ rating in each category.
Puka Nacua, WR LAR
Week 1 stats: 15 targets, ten receptions, 119 receiving yards, 21.9 PPR points. WR8 on the week.
I expected to be writing about Bijan Robinson as the second rookie in this article, and his performance was certainly deserving of an entry here. After further review, I couldn’t get away from one of my favorite late-round rookie draft picks.
Nacua was a four-star recruit and committed to USC but then backed out and decided to attend Washington, where he played only sparingly his first two seasons.
After the 2020 COVID-19-shortened season, Nacua transferred to BYU in 2021, returning to his home state of Utah. He was second in receptions with 43 receptions for 805 yards and six touchdowns. He was named to the Phil Steele All-Independent First Team and the College Football Network All-Independent First Team.
In 2022, Nacua led BYU with 48 receptions for 625 yards and five touchdowns. He was named to the Phil Steele All-Independent First Team and the College Football Network All-Independent First Team for the second straight season.
While he never put up gaudy counting stats in college, Nacua did show extreme versatility as a receiver who could play all over the formation. He was even used in the running game, accumulating 39 carries for 360 yards and five touchdowns over his final two seasons. He never profiled as an elite athlete, but his ability to make contested catches and run crisp routes kept him on our dynasty radar despite the lackluster fifth-round draft capital.
His NFL debut was better than even his staunchest supporters could have predicted. Nacua showed off the versatility that was one of his calling cards in college, playing all over the formation and setting rookie debut game records with ten receptions on 15 targets. He became the fourth player in NFL history to have ten receptions and 100 or more receiving yards in their first career game. That’s an incredible start to a career for a day-three NFL draft pick.
Cooper Kupp will be out until at least week five with the hamstring issue that put him on injured reserve, so we can count on Nacua in a high-volume role for at least three more games. Even when Kupp returns, Nacua should be able to coexist with the slot stud, as an impressive 74% of his routes came on the outside. Tutu Atwell also played well, but Nacua dominated the team’s target share at 40.5% and hitting 0.44 targets per route run which was even higher than Tyreek Hill’s 0.43 on the week. That level of market share isn’t sustainable, but it shows that he is comfortable being the primary option in a passing offense for as long as he needs to be.
In our most recent ADP data, Nacua is going off the board as the WR72 and the 165th overall player off the board. Even if this is his best game in September, that ADP will rise dramatically next month.
I can’t give his debut game anything other than an A+. His rest-of-season potential could rise or fall based on what happens with Kupp. Hamstring injuries tend to linger, and if it’s a constant issue for Kupp all season long, Nacua has a path to huge numbers as a rookie. It’s tough to gauge his long-term ceiling after one NFL game, but unless the NFL was very wrong about him as a prospect, it’s tough to see him as the next elite young wide receiver in the league. His long-term ceiling is probably in the WR2 range in production and ADP value, but that could be conservative.
Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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