Navigating Your Dynasty Rookie Draft: Late 2nd

For many dynasty players, the off-season highlight is the annual rookie draft. For some, that date may be rapidly approaching. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over.

Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are champing at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.

This 12-part series will use the latest data available at Dynasty League Football: Superflex Rookie ADP from the past 30 days. We will mention the player or players you could soon add to your team via the rookie draft. We will also include options based on the 1QB rookie ADP from the same timeframe for those who play in that format.

The first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference-makers can also be found in the second round and beyond. Each section will encompass four picks, and we will go four rounds deep to help you be as prepared as possible.

Superflex 2.09

Hendon Hooker, QB DET

Given it is superflex, another quarterback comes off the board here. Hooker may be the most challenging evaluation in the entire draft class. He was hyper-productive in his final year with Tennessee and in the conversation for the Heisman award. However, he is 25 years old and tore his ACL in Nov, meaning he will likely be 26 before he sees the field; on top of that, he is coming out of a college offense that may be least representative of an NFL offense in the entire FBS.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

The landing spot only adds to the challenge of evaluating Hooker’s value. The Lions are still searching for their long-term franchise quarterback, as I firmly believe Jared Goff is nothing more than a bridge quarterback. However, given Hooker’s health situation, he is unlikely to be in a position where he could take over from Goff down the stretch if the Lions struggle. It is also challenging to see a franchise ready for contention turning over the franchise to a 26-year-old rookie coming off an ACL injury.

STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS

For me, I am not drafting Hooker here. There are too many question marks, and even with the quarterback premium in a superflex league, I can’t bring myself to draft Hooker before the third round. I would instead take a flyer on one of the potential backup running backs or target Jayden Reed, who is criminally underrated in rookie drafts.

ONE-QUARTERBACK 2.09

Tank Bigsby, RB JAC

Next off the board in ADP is another potential backup running back with upside should there be injuries ahead of him. Bigsby had a noteworthy college career. After all, any running back who earns first-team all-SEC honors as a true freshman is worth paying attention to. Bigsby is a physical runner who should translate well into the NFL immediately.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Landing with the Jaguars is an ideal landing spot for Bigsby. He is not expected to be the lead back immediately and will complement Travis Etienne. However, a realistic outcome exists where Bigsby carves out a more significant role and garners the short-yardage work around the goalline.

STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS

This is one of my favorite spots in the entire draft. There are some excellent value lottery tickets in this range. Bigsby is a perfect late second-round pick. He could have flex potential as a rookie and is one injury away from being a league-winning back. I’d be comfortable jumping up several spots to ensure you got him. Although, I’d try to grab a couple of picks in this range as there are some wide receivers I like as well.

Superflex 2.10

Jayden Reed, WR GB

At 2.10, we find my favorite player in the entire draft. Reed is a natural route runner who profiles as a target hog out of the slot. He consistently produced in college despite some up-and-down quarterback play. He lacks prototypical size, which is why he is likely falling in rookie drafts, but he is excellent with the ball in his hands and gets open at will.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

As a rookie, Reed will have an immediate role with the Packers. He will start as the primary slot receiver in three and four wide receiver sets. There is an outcome where Reed is the target leader for the Packers as a rookie, with Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson seeing the more valuable downfield targets. Reports through early camp have Jordan Love checking the ball down significantly, which will further benefit Reed.

STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS

I am such a big fan of Reed that I have him ranked as my 10th overall player in superflex drafts. I wouldn’t draft him there, given his ADP, but I would be happy to grab him four or five spots earlier than this. If you can spend a late 2nd to acquire him, that is a terrific value, and I wouldn’t be moving back from this spot.

One-Quarterback 2.10

Josh Downs, WR IND

At the 2.10, we see yet another smaller slot-only receiver come off the board. Downs was hyper-productive in college. However, he sadly sees his stock and upside diminished from the fact that he will likely only be able to play out of the slot with a free release in the NFL.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

The immediate returns for Downs may be challenging as he pairs with the new rookie quarterback in town, Anthony Richardson. Rookie quarterbacks are not great for wide receiver production at the best of times. However, Richardson has footwork and accuracy concerns that may take some time to settle in the NFL. He is also a freak athlete who will be used in the running game, potentially limiting the number of pass attempts for the Colts’ offense.

STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS

As mentioned, this is an excellent point in the draft with some fantastic prospects who have dropped for various reasons. I wouldn’t be looking to move out of this pick and would instead look to acquire more picks in this range. Downs may take some time to get up and running as a fantasy asset, but he has the chance to be a reliable WR3/4 for your dynasty team moving forward.

Superflex 2.11

Rashee Rice, WR KC

It is surprising to see a player drafted to the Kansas City Chiefs fall in rookie drafts. Rice received almost identical draft capital to Skyy Moore just a year later. However, Moore was going as the 1.10 last year, and Rice is over a round later. Rice has an intriguing skillset. He is a good athlete with good size. However, he ran an elementary route tree in college, and because of that, his route-running ability remains in question.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Trying to project the Chiefs’ receiver room is currently a headache. Someone will emerge between Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Marques Valdes-Scantling, Richie James, and Rashee Rice. However, it is anyone’s guess as to who that will be. Rice is a boom or bust-type player, given his physical tools but lack of nuanced route running ability.

STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS

If you like taking risks and shooting for the upside, then Rice is absolutely the player for you. His range of outcomes, however, is massive. He could be a fantasy superstar, or he could never be fantasy-relevant. I prefer a couple of other receivers in this range, but I can understand shooting for the moon with Rice.

One-Quarterback 2.11

Jayden Reed, WR GB

Strangely, Reed is falling to this point in one quarterback draft when he is going a pick earlier in superflex formats. However, if you look at it, this is an incredible value.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS

I would be comfortable moving up from this spot to secure Reed, although if you can sit tight and draft him at the 2.11, that is fantastic value.

Superflex 2.12

Tyjae Spears, RB TEN

With the final pick in the second round, we find another of the backup running backs with upside. Coming from a smaller school, you must be incredibly productive to get on radars. Spears did precisely that and may have one of the most impressive highlight tapes. He shows burst, acceleration, excellent contact balance, and an ability to make defenders miss. There is some concern about the health of his knee and whether it will curtail the length of his career.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Landing with the Titans, he will sit behind Derrick Henry to start his career. However, if there was a Derrick Henry injury, Spears could immediately walk into a significant role. He will likely not have a massive role without an injury. However,  Henry is expected to be a free agent at the end of the season, and Spears could be the Titans’ lead back for 2024 and beyond.

STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS

Spears is an excellent flyer at a low cost here. However, you could move back a couple of spots and take a similar flyer on any other backup running backs. They’re all in very similar situations and an injury away from relevancy, so the best solution is to add an extra asset and move back to grab either Spears or another option a few picks later.

One-Quarterback 2.12

Chase Brown, RB CIN

To round out the second round in the one quarterback draft, we find Chase Brown, who is an older prospect but one who produced well at Illinois. He is lightning-fast and could be a good fit for the outside zone running scheme that Zac Taylor has used occasionally in Cincinnati. The injuries through his earlier college career are a slight concern, but in the last two years, he was largely healthy and shouldn’t see any ill effects moving forward.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Landing in Cincinnati, Brown is another of the injury-away backup running backs, but there could be some upside. Joe Mixon has some potential legal issues still floating around and could see a suspension, depending on how the league handles it. That would open the door for Brown to see the field immediately. Furthermore, despite restructuring his contract, Mixon can still be cut at the end of the season, meaning that if Brown impresses as a rookie, he could be the lead back in 2024.

STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS

This is the end of a tier for me, and Brown is the last of the lottery ticket running backs I feel comfortable with, so I would not be looking to trade down. I don’t think there would be any need to trade up unless you can get into the first round on the cheap, so this feels like a solid spot to stand still and take the best player available.

Navigating Your Dynasty Rookie Draft: Late 2nd