Dynasty Decision: Michael Pittman
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline, only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Michael Pittman, WR IND
Michael Pittman Jr. has been a rock-solid fantasy asset over the last few seasons. He was never quite in that elite WR1 conversation but consistently provided WR2-level production. However, 2024 was a down year in which the entire offense struggled. Now entering his sixth NFL season, the question for dynasty managers is: Will he bounce back in 2025, or is this the beginning of the end?
Previous Performance
Since arriving in the league as a second-round pick in 2020, Pittman has steadily grown into the Colts’ go-to option in the passing game. He has had three consecutive seasons with at least 85 receptions and 925 yards, including a career-high 109 receptions for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns in 2023.
Even with a revolving door at quarterback, Pittman has produced — finishing as the WR14 in 2023, WR20 in 2022, and WR18 in 2021 in PPR formats. His target share and route participation have consistently been among the league leaders, and his physical playstyle has made him a reliable option on third downs.
His 2024 campaign saw a slight dip in volume as the Colts leaned more on the run game and second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson returned from injury. Pittman saw a drop in raw target volume, not breaking 120 targets for the first time since his rookie campaign. However, he was also far less efficient on a per-target basis, reeling in only 69 of those 111 targets.
Situation and Usage
Pittman’s role in the Colts offense isn’t in question. He will be an every-snap player, lining up outside around 75% of the time as the X receiver. His target share dropped in 2024, but it should return to around 25% again in 2025 and beyond.
The question comes from the play under center. With Anthony Richardson under center, there is a glaring question mark over the quality of targets he will receive. The Colts leaned more run-heavy with Richardson under center, but averaged over 30 pass attempts per game last season. If Richardson can step up, there should be more than enough volume for Pittman to produce.
Another knock on Pittman was the emergence of Josh Downs as a legitimate weapon out of the slot and Alec Pierce‘s continued development as a situational deep threat. In 2022 and 2023, Pittman thrived in an RPO-heavy scheme that saw him forced to take a huge number of first-look targets. Despite his running ability, the Colts have moved away from those plays with Richardson under center. If they make a return as part of Richardson’s development, it could be a huge thing for Pittman’s fantasy upside.
Contract
Pittman signed a three-year $70m contract in March 2024. He is heading into the second season of that contract and has a cap hit of $23 million. The final year of the contract has no guaranteed money outside of a $5m signing bonus proration and a $2m roster bonus due on the 5th day of the league year in 2026. This means the Colts will likely face a decision at the end of the 2025 season. Extend Pittman, trade him away to a team willing to extend him, or let him play out the final year of his contract and hit free agency. If they opt to let him play out that contract, they will have to pay him $29m against the cap in order to do so.
A lot of that decision will come down to how Pittman plays in 2025, but it also rests on who makes the decision, as both he and head coach Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard are on the hot seat and could be fired after the 2024 season if things don’t rebound.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR41 in March ADP and the 102nd overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.12 in the 2025 draft or two random 2026 second-round picks in a Superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
I really struggle with how to value a player like Pittman. I genuinely believe he is a very talented player. Still, I think those three consecutive top 24 seasons were buoyed mainly by the situation and lack of other receivers than him being an elite player. However, he is far better than his 2024 season suggests. So, given his current value, he feels appropriately priced as a WR3 type. However, the lack of certainty makes me very concerned. He could be looking for a new home this time next year, or he could still be with the Colts but find a new Head Coach, GM, and Quarterback calling the shots. To invest that much capital in a non-elite player with this sort of shelf life makes me very nervous, and for that reason, I think I would lean towards getting out on the asset rather than actively looking to acquire him.
If you can pivot from Pittman to a mid/late 1st round pick or perhaps a younger player with more upside in a similar value range, that would make me feel much more comfortable. Jayden Reed, Ricky Pearsall, or Pittman’s Teammate Josh Downs all feel like suitable players to Pivot, who have more upside and potential longevity.
There is a narrow outcome in which Pittman returns to his old form and Anthony Richardson takes the leap in his third season. In that scenario, he would be massively undervalued and worth a lot more, but that outcome feels too narrow to place too much hope in it.
- Dynasty Decision: Michael Pittman - April 11, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Rhamondre Stevenson - April 4, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Anthony Richardson - March 28, 2025
