2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Justin Shorter
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name:Â Justin Shorter
Position:Â Wide Receiver
Pro Team:Â Buffalo Bills
College Team:Â Florida
Draft Status:Â Round five, Pick 150
The former Penn State transfer who finished his career at Florida is an interesting prospect. He has a good but not great athletic profile. He has elite size. He showed flashes of some good production in certain areas, but never great.
The receiving room in Buffalo is a bit more wide-open than previously thought. While Stefon Diggs is clearly WR1 and the go-to receiver for Quarterback Josh Allen, things get a bit murky after him.
This will be an interesting training camp for Justin Shorter. Being a fifth-round pick is not ideal, but there is an opportunity to make some noise in this wide receiver room. He is also competing with a group of players who were also similarly drafted. He looks to be battling it out for the third or fourth wide receiver spot.
Stefon Diggs is clearly WR1. Gabe Davis, a former fourth-round pick in 2020, had all the off-season hype last year but was mildly disappointing with 48 catches for 836 yards and seven touchdowns. He still seems locked in as WR2 for the Bills, but Shorter could push him for the starting X-spot.
In the slot currently is former fifth-round pick, Khalil Shakir. The Boise State product didn’t produce much in his rookie season, with ten catches for 161 yards and one touchdown. Trent Sherfield was signed as a free agent away from the Miami Dolphins. An undrafted free agent out of Vanderbilt, Sherfield, who is in his sixth year, had his most productive pro season in 2022 with 30 catches for 417 yards and two touchdowns. The New Orleans Saints signed Deonty Harty, but he has been more of a special teams player throughout his career.
Shorter has the best size of this group at 6’4″ and 229 pounds. That should give him a bit of a leg up over some of his smaller counterparts and makes Shorter an intriguing long shot to carve out some playing time.
TALENT
Justin Shorter Combine Results:
Height: 6′ 4″
Weight:Â 229 lbs.
Arm: 33 ¾”
Hand: 10″
40-Yard Dash:Â 4.55 seconds
10-Yard Split:Â 1.59 seconds
Vertical Jump: 35.5″
Broad Jump: 10′ 6″
Shorter’s biggest asset is his size. The 2023 wide receiver class was fairly small when it came to height and weight. Shorter was one of the only players taller than 6-2 and 200 pounds. At 6-4, 229 pounds and with a bench press of 18 reps, Shorter has elite size, which sets him apart. He didn’t have a blazing 40-yard time with a 4.55, but for his height and weight, that is a solid number. His agility scores were low. Shorter has been mostly a deep threat in his career and didn’t run an expansive route tree in college. He did show the ability to catch the ball with his hands in traffic on slant routes. While he rarely ran by defenders, he was able to make contested catches on deep throws and adjust his body to make catches between multiple defenders. His quarterbacks also trusted him to throw several 50-50 deep balls, allowing him to use his size and ability to make a play.
OPPORTUNITY
Being a fifth-round pick is never ideal, but Shorter is competing with similarly drafted players, so they don’t have a draft capital advantage over him like many other rookies. This definitely helps his outlook for his rookie season and beyond. With Diggs being the only Bonafede elite wide receiver in this group, there is an opportunity to make some noise and shake things up. Can Gabriel Davis grab ahold of the WR2 role for the foreseeable future? That has yet to be determined. Shorter should be on a similar playing field with second-year man Shakir, also a fifth-round pick, who had some hype behind him coming into last season but didn’t show much. Shakir and the newly signed Sherfield are mostly likely competing for the slot position. Sherfield, who has been making some noise in OTA’s, is a sixth-year player who was originally undrafted and has one marginally decent season on his resume. As it currently sits, Shorter looks to be the backup behind Gabe Davis at the X-spot.
RISK
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
The former Penn State transfer who finished his career at Florida is an interesting prospect. Shorter never put up big numbers in college, but he also didn’t receive a ton of opportunity in two run-first offenses with questionable quarterback play. He had three different starting quarterbacks in his three seasons as a Gator.
Shorter only played in nine games his senior season, but he averaged 19.9 yards per reception for 577 yards on 29 catches. He was the top target in 2022 for Quarterback Anthony Richardson, who was the fourth-overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts. Richardson was able to throw some nice deep balls to Shorter. He was also able to go 550 yards his junior year on 41 catches. The sample size isn’t huge, but there are some things to like in his game.
MARKET
Currently, Shorter is going in the late fifth round or undrafted in most rookie drafts. His current ADP is outside the top 58, so there aren’t many risks at this point, but there could be some big upside. Shorter is most likely sitting on the waiver wire but could make a jump with a strong showing in camp. In our DLF Rookie Rankings, he currently sits at 52nd overall and WR23, just behind Charlie Jones, Puka Nacua, Xavier Hutchinson, Dontayvion Wicks, Tre Tucker, AT Perry, and Parker Washington.
Looking at how Justin Shorter compares to some other wide receivers in this range is interesting. Shorter’s statistics in his final season were nowhere near that of AT Perry and Charlie Jones, who were in more pass-heavy offenses. Shorter had 29 catches for 577 yards, averaging 19.9 yards per reception and two touchdowns in only nine games, while Perry had 81 catches, 1,096 yards, and 11 TDs in 13 games at Wake Forest, and Jones had 110 catches, 1,361 yards, and 12 TDs in 13 games at Purdue. In this graph, you can see that Shorter was very close to AT Perry and Charlie Jones when you look at their Reception Yards per Team Pass Attempt. They were all between 22%-25% share. You also take into consideration that Shorter was drafted in the fifth round, while Perry was taken in the sixth round by the New Orleans Saints and Jones in the fourth round by the Cincinnati Bengals. These receivers might be closer to each other in value than initially thought.
Keep an eye on training camp and see what is coming out of Buffalo about Shorter. It is taking almost nothing to add him to your roster, and the upside of being on an elite offense looking for pass catchers is intriguing. He might end up being a total bust or a hold for 2024, but at his cost, you have nothing to lose other than a roster slot.
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