2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Sam LaPorta

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

SITUATION

Name: Sam LaPorta

Position: Tight End

Pro Team: Detroit Lions

College Team: Iowa

Draft Status: Round two, thirty-fourth overall

The Detroit Lions made a statement selecting Sam LaPorta with the second pick on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. The Lions targeted LaPorta as the final piece in a drastic overhaul of a top-5 NFL offense in 2022. Not only did Detroit invest premium Day Two draft capital into LaPorta, but they chose him over consensus favorite Michael Mayer. The 22-year-old and four-year Senior hopes to be the next great tight end from what has now become the “Tight End U.”

TALENT

Sam LaPorta Combine Results

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 245 lbs

Arm: 33 1/8 ”

Hand: 10 1/4″

40-Yard Dash: 4.59 seconds

10-Yard Split: 1.59 seconds

20-Yard Shuttle: 4.25 seconds

Vertical Jump: 35″

Broad Jump: 10’3″

Before the NFL Combine, LaPorta wasn’t regarded as a consensus top-100 pick on Mock Draft Database. His mediocre counting stats and lack of prototypical size made him an afterthought in January and February. LaPorta wasn’t mentioned in the same tier as Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, and Darnell Washington. His athletic testing at the NFL Combine put him on the map. A 90th percentile 40-time and upper percentile explosion and agility metrics turned heads at the NFL Combine.

Now athletic testing can be pretty effective when predicting college tight ends for the NFL. But impressive athleticism without producing can also be a red flag. It’s concerning when a tight end who tested as well as LaPorta averages only 11.7 yards per reception during his college career. However, when taken in the context of the Iowa offense, LaPorta’s production profile begins to make more sense.

Iowa was a bottom-five offense in college football last season. They were second-to-last in yards per game and ninth in points per game. Iowa’s offense was built solely around LaPorta. One other pass catcher had more than 30 receptions, and nobody else gained more than 400 yards receiving. When LaPorta wasn’t on the field, Iowa struggled to move the ball past midfield or gain first downs. When he was on the field, defenses schemed their coverages to stop him. Despite this, LaPorta averaged over 27 percent of the Hawkeyes’ team receptions and 29 percent of the team receiving yards during his junior and senior seasons. Impressive thresholds for a college tight end illustrate why market share metrics provide a critical context for college prospects.

The final piece of LaPorta’s talent profile is his ability after the catch. Tight ends who demonstrate dynamism and can create after the catch make the difference in fantasy football. Turning a five-yard dump-off into a 20-yard gain elevates the Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce types from the tight-end waiver-wire fodder found in every dynasty league. It also translates well from college to the NFL. LaPorta finished second among all tight ends in 2022 with 20 missed tackles forced per PFF. He was 11th among all pass catchers in miss tackles forces, and he did it on only 58 catches. Essentially, he was breaking a tackle on every third catch, which is elite for a receiver, let alone a tight end.

OPPORTUNITY

Detroit Lions Depth Chart:

Data courtesy of 4 for 4.

The Detroit Lions were a perfect landing spot for a tight end and an obvious need after trading TJ Hockenson before Week 9 last season. Shane Zylstra’s six targets in Week 16 and Brock Wright’s four targets in Week 17 were the only games in which a Lions tight end eclipsed three targets in a game after the trade. Outside of Pro Bowler Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit clearly needs another pass-catching threat. First-round wide receiver Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six games, and the only other proven pass catcher on the roster is 33-year-old Marvin Jones Jr.

Under Dan Campbell, the Detroit offense has been one of the run heaviest teams in the NFL. The Lions were a bottom-five team in neutral passing situations at 46.8 percent and had a negative three percent pass rate over expected per RBsDM.com. While these metrics are more effective at predicting future pass rates, the Lions were still a top-10 team from an overall passing volume last season. Campbell’s tendency to go for it on fourth downs and Detroit’s lackluster defense contributed to a top-10 passing volume offense in 2022. Regardless of the playcalling and pace of the Lions’ offense this season, LaPorta is walking into a situation with loads of opportunity in Week 1.

RISK

Courtesy of sports-reference.com.

There’s always risk when projecting prospects from college to the NFL. The most glaring risk for LaPorta is his playing tight end. Tight end can take several years to develop, and too often, fantasy managers lack the patience to wait for a year three or four-year breakout. Maybe even more concerning is the Lions failed to maximize Hockenson’s talent in Campbell’s offense. However, overall, LaPorta doesn’t present any more risk than a typical prospect entering the NFL.

MARKET

Courtesy of DLFs May Superflex ADP

LaPorta is coming off the board as TE3 at the end of the second round per DLF Rookie Superflex ADP. Personally, I’ve seen him consistently taken as the TE2 ahead of Michael Mayer in most of my rookie drafts. In drafts where I’ve had the opportunity to draft LaPorta, I’ve done the opposite and selected Mayer instead. Mayer’s college production pushes him slightly over LaPorta for me despite the overblown athleticism concerns for Mayer. Regarding LaPorta versus the other positions, I’m taking LaPorta and Mayer as soon as Kendre Miller is off the board. LaPorta, Mayer, and Miller represent a tier break for me before Marvin Mims, Josh Downs, and Roschon Johnson. In tight-end premium formats, LaPorta is picked early in the second round and represents a tier break for many managers. The perceived tier break has led to multiple bidding wars for LaPorta and other tight-end hungry managers in my rookie drafts.

Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Analyzer.

Zooming out, LaPorta is going as a high-end TE2 as the 14th tight end in Superflex mock drafts. He’s in a large tier with other young tight ends like Chigoziem Okonkwo, Mayer, Greg Dulcich, and Trey McBride. This is an excellent spot in startups to target tight ends if managers miss a shot at Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. There’s a significant tier drop at wide receiver and running back, which makes these young tight ends a great target at a relatively low opportunity cost in the double-digit rounds of startups.

2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Sam LaPorta