May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight Ends
Do not fade the tight end position. If you do, there are always options to exploit in startup ADP. This article will look at one-year ADP changes for the position. I will note risers, fallers, and notable tight end selections from our May ADP.
Tight ends are a unique group compared to wide receivers and running backs. It is assumed they take a few years to develop. They have a perceived shelf life similar to wide receivers by playing into their 30s. Let’s get into the ADP.
Tight End Selections
Below is a visual representation of where tight ends are being drafted.
Notable Selections
These are tight ends I wanted to note separately.
Juwan Johnson, NO – TE20 (+?)
From undrafted in 2020 to earning a two-year contract extension in 2023, it is hard not to root for Johnson. He has 11 touchdowns and 87 receptions over the last two seasons. He has a question mark because he was also undrafted in startup ADP last year. The offense has a new quarterback in Derek Carr and a rising star in Chris Olave. Michael Thomas should be returning from health. They also signed Foster Moreau to a three-year deal on May 10th – he comes over from Las Vegas, like Carr.
Jelani Woods, IND – TE31 (-40.83)
Indianapolis have revamped their system starting with head coach Shane Steichen. They drafted Anthony Richardson to be the potential franchise quarterback. There may be a notion surrounding new head coaches and wanting their new players – they also drafted Will Mallory in the fifth round.
Woods was a second-round pick and there was a report saying Steichen is excited for Woods. There is zero risk with being selected as TE31 and dropping in ADP, despite a modest 40-target rookie campaign with three tight ends rotated.
Tight End Risers
First or second-year tight ends will naturally rise in ADP. The position is often viewed as unnecessary to invest in when you miss out on the top-tier talents (e.g., Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, etc.). An additional reason for a tight end to rise in ADP results is when a tight end rises to the top of the receiving chart.
Evan Engram, JAC – TE13 (+63.5)
Doug Pederson loves utilizing his tight ends. Unfortunately, the franchise tag had to be utilized on Engram. Jacksonville also spent a second-round pick on Brenton Strange, offering him one year to learn and develop. This is similar to Dallas Goedert when Pederson was with Philadelphia, who developed behind Zach Ertz.
Pederson has a history of utilizing two tight ends, so this should not necessarily scare you off from Engram. Unfortunately, we currently have no idea if he will be in Jacksonville in 2024.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN – TE16 (+?)
Here is another athletic tight end finding pay dirt, well, in startup drafts. Okonkwo flashed his big play ability as a rookie while playing limited snaps: 32 receptions, 450 yards, and three touchdowns. An athletic tight end drafted within the first four rounds of the NFL Draft should always be on your radar. Last year you could have stolen him with your last pick in the draft.
Tennessee did not invest in the receiving options, leaving Okonkwo with an intriguing opportunity to be a top target on the team.
Additional Risers
- David Njoku, CLE – TE12 (+43.0)
- The offense is getting crowded, however Njoku has proven he will earn targets to finish as a top tight end in scoring.
- Greg Dulcich, DEN – TE14 (+71.50)
- He had an impressive rookie campaign but a new head coach leaves uncertainty, at least in the drafters’ minds.
- Isaiah Likely, BAL – TE29 (+?)
- There was no May 2022 ADP. Likely proved his ability by stepping in when Mark Andrews missed two games. He notably had a 13-target, eight-reception, and 103-yard game.
Tight End Fallers
Once hyped up tight ends who disappoint will naturally fall. These could be tight ends who find themselves on a less favorable team or tight ends who may have lost their role.
Dalton Schultz, HOU – TE17 (-52.17)
“A rookie quarterback has a negative impact on tight ends.” I have seen the statement thrown around on Twitter. Schultz will be competing to be the top target in the Houston offense. He signed a one-year deal and is in a contract year. His appeal came from being in the Dallas offense and now finds himself in a less exciting situation.
Irv Smith Jr, CIN – TE22 (-42.83)
Smith’s up-and-down career has seen him land in Cincinnati on a one-year deal. Hayden Hurst had an okay year in 2022, which brings a little positivity for Smith in 2023. Unfortunately, he will be the fourth (at best) option in the receiving offense. Reports are circulating regarding excitement for him, but we should not be surprised we are hearing good things.
Dawson Knox, BUF – TE27 (-86.67)
It seems certain players get thrust into lofty expectations. A high-powered offense with a stud quarterback may be the reason. Unfortunately, Knox has yet to deliver and Buffalo spent a first-round pick on a tight end in the 2023 NFL Draft. This should not sway you away from Knox as he will have a role. Dalton Kincaid is assumed to take a slot role, leaving Knox as the inline tight end.
Additional Fallers
- Mike Gesicki, NE – TE24 (-85.34)
- We have to hope he takes on the slot role for New England.
- Noah Fant, SEA – TE23 (-65.84)
- He is a former first-round pick with high expectations. Fant has had a solid career, averaging 55 receptions per season.
Discussion
Finding the value within a startup at the tight end position is crucial. Betting on upside (Jelani Woods) rather than hope (Cole Kmet) is the optimal move. There are instances where a tight end will change teams and resurrect their value. I was not excited about TJ Hockenson with his role in Detroit. He was then traded and found himself in a new role with a team willing to utilize his skill set properly. The main takeaway is, we should always bet on talent. Lesson learned for me.
There are limited tight end options warranting a confident weekly start. Often you may find yourself bouncing back and forth on a start decision. “This defense is good against tight ends but this wide receiver is banged up.” “This tight end I have a good gut feeling for.” Whatever your reasoning is for the start, you are likely hoping for a touchdown.
Understanding important variables to covet from your tight ends will help find the value to be exploited in the drafts. It is equally important to never reach at a position to fill a starting spot in your lineup. When doing startups, there will be months to fill your starting roster.
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight Ends - May 31, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers - May 30, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Running Backs - May 29, 2023
