2023 Off-Season Mock Drafts: DLF Staff Rookie Mock
As this series has progressed, I have mainly focused on a few areas: NFL mock drafts, ADP results from month-long mocks, mock drafts using the DLF mock draft simulator, and the potential impact of landing spots. I have yet to conduct an actual mock and get real-time results, but I’m putting an end to that today.
I ran a 12-team, PPR, superflex mock with 12 dynasty experts (11 from DLF) to see where players would fall and see how seasoned dynasty veterans would draft against one another to find out who, if anyone, is being valued more (or less) by some of the most knowledgeable people in the industry.
Here is a quick intro to all involved in the order we’ll be drafting:
- John Hogue, DLF writer and host of the Superflex Supershow Podcast
- John Di Bari, DLF writer and co-host of The Fantasy Forty podcast
- Matt Price, Senior Writer at DLF and host of The DLF Dynasty Podcast and Dynasty Game Night
- Tim Riordan, DLF writer and producer for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio
- Matt Walker, former writer and my co-host on The Fantasy Forty podcast
- Jeff Smith, Senior writer at DLF and contributor at draftbuddy.com and fantasydata.com
- Scott Connor, DLF writer and contributor for multiple sites and pods, all links on his Twitter
- Jake Domonkos, DLF writer
- Pete Lawrence, DLF writer and former podcaster
- Nick Muzzillo, DLF writer, scouting assistant for RPM Data, and NFL Draft Analyst for RND scouting
- Ryan McDowell, DLF boss and senior writer, host of Locked on Dynasty and DLF Dynasty Pod
- Brandon Haye, DLF writer
The Big Board
In the past, we’ve looked at each individual round one at a time, then revealed the big picture at the end. So I’m going to do things in reverse this time around. Take a look at the big board below and see what you think. Does anyone jump out to you? The biggest surprise to me was Quentin Johnston falling to 1.11, then Jalin Hyatt falling to 2.11, both to Ryan McDowell, who I would assume never imagined he’d come out of rounds one and two with that duo.
Round One
I’ve expressed my thoughts on Anthony Richardson‘s upside several times during this series. I was assigned the second overall pick, and it was time for me to put my money where my mouth is, and I pulled the trigger on Richardson. Bryce Young went third, and CJ Stroud fourth. I assume most people picking 1.04 in drafts do not imagine Stroud falling to them very often.
There were some interesting parallels between 1.01 and 1.06. At least in terms of owner mindset when on the clock. When drafting Robinson at 1.01, John Hogue said: “I really wanted to go QB, but can’t justify it. Bijan Robinson is just too good.” That was followed by Jeff Smith’s sentiments after taking Jahmyr Gibbs: “I wanted to go QB (Will Levis) but couldn’t justify him over Gibbs here.” I would prepare for more of these superflex dilemmas following the NFL Draft once we factor in draft capital and landing spots. Faced with the same decision at 1.06, what would you do if a team trades up to three to leapfrog the Colts and drafts Levis third overall, and Gibbs falls to the late third and is the sixth running back off the board?
I already mentioned Johnston at 1.11 being the best value in this round, and Pete did consider him at 1.09. As far as the biggest reach, I wasn’t a fan of Sean Tucker closing out the round. In DLF’s ADP, he’s been in the RB5/RB6 range for a couple of months, so while it wasn’t a massive reach, more often than not, he has been a second-round pick. Personally, I prefer the five backs who were drafted after him, but Brandon said he has Tucker ahead of Zach Charbonnet, who is many people’s clear RB3.
Round Two
Hogue’s selection of Kayshon Boutte just drips with upside. He could be the steal of the draft- or one of the greatest “what ifs” in fantasy history. For me, at 2.02, I had a receiver ranked higher than my eventual pick, Tyjae Spears, but I knew running back would thin out quickly, so I leaned into positional scarcity and went with my highest-ranked running back. Following my pick, at 1.02, Matt Price grabbed another running back in Devon Achane, saying: “He is currently my 1.09 so this feels like a steal. The fastest RB in the class and the second-best pass-catching back in the class showed the ability to withstand 200+ touches.”
Matt Walker grabbed the only remaining quarterback to care about in Hendon Hooker at 2.05. I have found Hooker to be significantly more popular in drafts with “sharp” players. His ADP has him most often as a late second-round pick, but in drafts with writers and podcaster types, he’s often been an early second. Had I not gotten a quarterback in round one, I would’ve considered Hooker at 2.02. Walker explains: “He is [the] last QB worth [anything] and is currently getting early day two NFL Draft buzz. I’ll take the value upside of a possible starting QB in the mid-second.”
I mentioned positional scarcity artificially inflating the running backs and how that influenced me at 2.02. Seeing a four-back run at the end of the round made me feel better about my choice.
Once again, Ryan McDowell nabbed the best value in the round. Hyatt was the seventh wide receiver off the board, and that’s about in line with what we’ve seen in most other mocks. However, as the 23rd pick, he was an excellent value for a player who has often been drafted at the 1-2 turn and as early as 1.10 in some fantasy mocks while being the first receiver selected in several NFL mock drafts too. I’m not a fan of Hyatt, but I love the value here. I didn’t think any of the picks in round two were reaches or overdrafts. If I had to pick one, I’d go with Nick Muzzillo’s selection of Tank Bigsby at 2.10. That is precisely where he has been going in recent mocks, so he wasn’t overdrafted, I just prefer some of the remaining running backs more than him.
My biggest takeaway in this round: There is still a lot of value to be had. If someone wanted my 1.04, I would be ecstatic to get a late first and two seconds. Pass on Gibbs for Johnston, Michael Mayer, and Israel Abanikanda? Yes, please, every chance I get.
Round Three
We start the round with Hogue doubling up on Texas backs. I followed his pick with Marvin Mims, who was the receiver I was thinking of taking at 2.02, so I was giddy to land him a full round later. But, then, seeing six running backs taken between my two picks just confirmed my priors about running back getting thin quickly. Scott Connor had seen enough of the limited wide receivers and chose one of the three round-three rushers with Chase Brown at 3.07, reporting: “Crazy he falls here. Will be one of the top eight RBs off the board in the NFL Draft. Much prefer him over many of the roster clogger WRs who have been drafted before him.”
At 3.04, I liked Tim Riordan’s selection of Dalton Kincaid. He said: “Kincaid will likely have first-round draft capital and is probably the best pass-catching tight end in the class,” and I don’t disagree with his assessment. In multiple NFL mocks, I’ve seen Kincaid going ahead of Mayer. Kincaid was part of a five-tight end run in this round, and I suspect that will hold true in actual drafts as well, given the depth of tight ends in this class.
Most of the picks in this round were in line with recent ADP, so there isn’t much to love or hate. I got a great deal on Mims with the 26th overall pick, as he’s been taken as early as 15 in other mock drafts and has an ADP of 17th right now. I like the player and love the value, so it’s a double win for me in this round. My least favorite pick would have to be Matt Price’s selection of Tank Dell at 3.03. It’s not even about Dell himself, although he was overdrafted according to recent ADP- it’s more about Matt’s roster construction through three rounds. He took the smallest quarterback in round one, the smallest running back in round two, then the smallest receiver in round three. He’s almost building busts into his roster. There are always outliers every year, but to roll the dice on three players who are all facing an uphill battle is a risk I’m not comfortable with myself. I can’t imagine a world where all three are successful in the NFL.
Round Four
In multiple articles, I repeatedly mentioned how much I like the players still available in the fourth round in mock drafts with the DLF Mock Draft Simulator or looking at other mocks and ADP. This time around, with a more experienced dynasty-centric bunch, I’ve gotta say, the cupboard is pretty bare compared to what I’ve been accustomed to. This is a tough draft room. There are several high-upside dart throws, but isn’t that how we would identify every fourth-rounder annually?
If you’re basing it off previous ADP and value, I made the worst pick in this round, taking Jonathan Mingo at 4.02 with the 38th overall pick. According to DLF’s ADP, Mingo has been the 51st player selected – going completely undrafted in approximately 65% of four-round drafts. I’m a huge fan, and I would have looked at him at 3.02 had Mims not been there.
I didn’t love Pete’s pick of Max Duggan at 4.09, despite his logic behind it: “Take a lottery ticket QB at this point.” We have all been in that position late in superflex drafts. I like the late-round-QB concept but not the actual application of it here. As far as I can tell, the NFL’s preferred QB6 is Tanner McKee, not Duggan.
My two favorite picks were Matt Walker’s choice of Evan Hull at 4.05 and Brandon’s pick of Trey Palmer at 4.12. Both players seem to be gaining steam ahead of the NFL Draft, and I suspect we will see them both creep into the late third if the NFL values them like I think they will come draft time.
The Big Picture
I liked the team I put together, but in the interest of not patting myself on the back anymore, I’ll pick another squad. I really liked Ryan’s draft out of the 11-hole. He got great values back-to-back in rounds one and two, Sam LaPorta could easily end up the best fantasy tight end from this class, and I’m a huge Jayden Reed fan. Matt Walker’s team from the five-spot is outstanding, but he and I have similar opinions on many players. Had I drafted from his spot, there is a good chance I would have drafted the same four players. Finally, Scott swung for the fences with the seventh pick. Everyone he picked could be a star this time next year, but they could all flame out in spectacular fashion as well.
On the other hand, I had already mentioned my problem with Matt Price’s team from the third pick. While I like all the players and see their potential individually, I hate them as a collective group. Brandon’s selection of Sean Tucker at 12 soured me on his entire team, despite Trey Palmer being one of my favorite picks in the draft. There is very little to pick apart here with such a talented room of drafters.
Overall, I don’t think this expert’s draft went as far away from ADP as I expected. Not that I thought we would see giant swings, but I imagined a player or two the industry likes (or dislikes) would see a big jump or fall. My biggest takeaways were that the quarterbacks will get pushed up a bit (as much as they can) in superflex drafts in a draft with better managers. After the top tier is gone, the middle-of-the-pack wide receivers will begin to fall relative to the other positions. Many kept their positional ADP, but overall they fell quite a bit.
This fall was caused by running back scarcity inflating their values- especially in the pick 12-25 range. I suspect half of all drafted running backs will be selected in that range of picks this year. The other reason wide receivers fell was that once the top QBs were gone and the RB run ended, there was still decent depth at receiver. No one feels pressured to “get their guy” at the position while there are still multiple good tight end prospects sitting there looking at you. I think this will get worse after the NFL Draft, too, as many of this year’s tight ends will get decent draft capital.
It’s important to know who you’re drafting with and each person’s individual trends when your drafts roll around. Hopefully, this look at a room full of savvy dynasty owners can help you create a competitive draft strategy as we inch closer to the NFL draft.
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