April Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Quarterback
It is time to look at quarterback startup ADP. This article will reference one year discrepancies. This means rookie quarterbacks will not have a comparison. The tight end, wide receiver, and running backs articles have been covered. The series analyzes 1QB leagues, as you can imagine, the single quarterback league varies from superflex.
Regardless, the better quarterbacks will be selected first and aging quarterbacks may fall, too. For a complete reference to ADP you can click here. I will try not to bore you with the obvious.
Introduction
Not often are you able to find a player who routinely scores 20 PPG. The quarterback position in a 1QB league is changing. For example, Patrick Mahomes is currently going at pick 16.33. This is significantly up from his March 2022 ADP of 39.67. There are a handful of difference makers at the position. There is only one Mahomes to go around.
The NFL offense seems to be gravitating to big-arm and mobile quarterbacks. The big arm creates big plays, which obviously benefits the scoring in your dynasty leagues. Having the rushing upside to get yards and touchdowns is the cherry on top.
Quarterbacks
Below is a visual representation on where the quarterbacks are being drafted.
Notable Quarterback Selections
Both of the below suggestions did not have an ADP in April 2022. Two younger quarterbacks who may be starting in 2023.
Jordan Love, GB – QB25
Green Bay will have a new starter for the 2023 season. The former first round pick has sat behind Aaron Rodgers. Disregarding injuries, Green Bay has had only two starting quarterbacks for the last 31 years.
Brock Purdy, SF – QB27
The media has taken San Francisco’s quarterback position by storm. We have heard conflicting reports surrounding Purdy and Trey Lance. Regardless, we saw Purdy excel in the system to end the 2022 season. He is recovering from his elbow injury and we do not have clarity on the situation. He may or may not play the season, that seems to be what we know.
Quarterback Risers
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA – QB14 (+40.2)
Year one with head coach Mike McDaniel was a success. Tagovailoa did suffer multiple concussions which put his career in jeopardy. He stated he contemplated retirement. Tagovailoa will look to continue their success in 2023. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are a dynamic duo, and lethal after the catch. This only helps bring production for all parties involved.
Daniel Jones, NYG – QB16 (+89.5)
Another successful year with a first-year head coach, Daniel Jones signed a contract extension to remain as the Giants quarterback. Brian Daboll worked wonders for Josh Allen, and it seems he is for Jones, too. The Giant had abysmal weapons for Jones. They went ahead and traded for Darren Waller to help push this offense in the right direction. The NFL Draft will be interesting to note for any wide receiver acquisitions. Wan’Dale Robinson will be returning from his ACL injury to give the offense an additional boost.
Additional Risers
Jared Goff, DET – QB19
Detroit has seemed to be committed to Goff as their guy for the 2023 season. The NFL Draft will tell us how much longer to expect him to be.
Kirk Cousins, MIN – QB18 (+13.0)
Despite turning 35 this season, Cousins has seen his ADP increase one round. Justin Jefferson really is special.
Quarterback Fallers
Kyler Murray, ARI – QB11 (-23.3)
If your major concern with Murray is his injury then I am not sure why he is falling in drafts. He is one of four quarterbacks who have scored 20+ PPG in each of the last three seasons. His 2023 season is in question given his ACL recovery, but he only turns 26 years old this season.
Matthew Stafford, LAR – QB28 (-107.2)
An extensive injury history is likely the reason for Stafford’s fall. He has suffered and played through multiple injuries. We do not know how much longer he will be in the league. Regardless, he is a starting quarterback with one of the best wide receivers in the league at his disposal.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN – QB33 (-52.3)
The time is coming to an end for Tannehill. It is reported Tennessee is open to shopping him if the price is there. He can provide bridge value to a team in quarterback limbo.
Additional Fallers
Derek Carr, NO – QB26 (-50.7)
He joins New Orleans and arguably has better weapons. Michael Thomas should be returning to 100% health and Chris Olave is an upcoming stud. Juwan Johnson (TE) is respectable too. Interestingly he fell, maybe it is due to being 32 years old.
Mac Jones, NE – QB29 (-58.7)
New England does not seem to be committed to Jones. His name has been involved in trade rumors. He does not offer much, if any, upside.
Discussion
The more we see quarterbacks play, the more we understand their environment. The team’s ownership and players are important to note, as they will often indicate within their statements their beliefs. We saw recently John Lynch being apprehensive with Trey Lance during press conferences. Body language experts were not thrilled with his response.
Single quarterback leagues are where having an elite producing quarterback will boost your team. There are differences in draft strategies with people opting for the late round quarterback strategy. According to the one year ADP change, it does seem drafters are looking at solidifying a top tier producing quarterback earlier.
If you miss out on the top-tier producing quarterback, this may create a correlation to why other quarterbacks are falling in ADP, despite any age or injury concerns. It is not often you will see multiple teams hoard quarterbacks in a 1QB league. Correlation does not equal causation, but we can try and infer from it.
Quarterbacks may be falling because drafters understand there will be rookie drafts. They may feel they can replace their underperforming player with a rookie from the draft. This was a subjective statement from me, but I feel it does make sense. There is a cause and effect for why things happen. It is only our ability to take an educated guess as to why.
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight Ends - May 31, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers - May 30, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Running Backs - May 29, 2023
