Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week One

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week One QB1s (top 12 scorers)

We saw some surprising Week One performances at the quarterback position that has fantasy managers reevaluating how they view some key signal callers. After last year’s disastrous season, the Patriots have a real offensive coordinator. It turns out, that makes a difference. Embattled quarterback Mac Jones set a new career-high with over 24 fantasy points and finished a top-five weekly scorer for the first time ever.

A trio of new starters showed off in Week One as Jordan Love (QB3), Anthony Richardson (QB4), and Sam Howell (QB12) all impressed. This start was especially encouraging for Love and Richardson, both of whom could be considered dynasty risers through the first week.

Most QB1 Games Allowed

Each week, in this section, I’ll use previous performances by team defenses to identify some matchups to target and avoid in the upcoming week. It is difficult to do that after just one game, but there are still some early trends forming that could be helpful in determining your week two lineup.

The Chargers got carved up by Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, but the matchup is kinder in Week Two, facing Ryan Tannehill and the Titans. After the poor performance for the veteran Tannehill last week, I wonder if this could be an early make-or-break spot for Tennessee, which has a pair of young quarterbacks sitting on the bench. The Bears are another team I would be targeting, but they also have what should be an easier matchup against Baker Mayfield.

Running Backs

Week One RB1s (top 12 scorers)

The stars came to play at the running back position as veterans Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey topped the list. Coincidentally, these three have been discussed as part of the elite class of 2017 running backs, as Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara, among others, have lost significant value over the offseason.

The top twelve includes teammates from the Chargers and Falcons. Both are noteworthy as we move forward. Joshua Kelley saw a heavy workload late in the game after Ekeler suffered an ankle injury. If the starter misses any time, Kelley would be a valuable short-term asset. For the Falcons, head coach Arthur Smith is showing us it’s not only the receiver positions where he ignores draft capital, but running back as well. Superstar rookie Bijan Robinson still produced as the RB7 for the week in his debut game, but it could’ve been so much better. Tyler Allgeier scored twice and Robinson carried the ball just ten times. Hopefully, Robinson’s talent and playmaking continue to outweigh potential opportunity limitations.

Most RB1 Games Allowed

You read the chart correctly. It’s only been one week, but both the Panthers and the Dolphins couldn’t stop the run against the Falcons and Chargers, respectively. We will have to wait to see if the fault lies with the defenses or not.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Wide Receivers

Week One WR1s (top 12 scorers)

The top three wideouts on this list each scored a pair of Week One touchdowns and Tyreek Hill is already more than 10% of the way to his stated goal of over 2,000 receiving yards, a feat that has never been accomplished in the NFL.

Calvin Ridley was back on an NFL field for the first time since Week Seven of the 2021 season. The veteran showed no rust at all, dominating the Colts and erasing any doubt who the Jaguars’ top target would be this season.

Despite some of the impressive names on this list, perhaps the most interesting is Rams rookie Puka Nacua, who saw a whopping 15 targets on his way to one of the top debut performances ever from a rookie receiver. With veteran Cooper Kupp out for at least three more games, Nacua is already being viewed and valued as a fantasy starter.

Most WR1 Games Allowed

The Titans were the only team to allow a pair of WR1s in the season opener. That’s exciting news for Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and perhaps even Josh Palmer or rookie Quentin Johnston, who shared the WR3 role last week.

Tight Ends

Week One TE1s (top 12 scorers)

Isn’t the tight end position always messy and confusing? I actually saw a slight push in new leagues this offseason to not require a starting tight end. While I understand the reasoning, I think there are other solutions I would prefer, but that is for another time.

We know Week One would be ugly with the top two dynasty tight ends out with injuries. Missing Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, there were still high hopes for Dallas Goedert, Tyler Higbee, and Darren Waller, among others. As you can see, none of that trio cracked the TE1 group. In fact, Goedert didn’t even score a point for his fantasy managers.

Veterans Hunter Henry and Hayden Hurst finished as the top two tight ends. Henry benefitted from the previously discussed coaching change in New England, while Hurst might be the top target for Bryce Young in Carolina, at least in the early portion of the season.

Most TE1 Games Allowed

Arizona did what Arizona always does, giving up a TE1 game. In Week Two, they’ll have to find a way to stop Giants veteran Darren Waller. Good luck with that.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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