Tactical Transactions: Moves to Make Before Week Two
Football is back! You laughed, you cried, you probably lamented an injury or two – but at the end of the day we all survived the winter, my sweet summer children. And while it’s still just one lonely data point for all of our favorite players (and in some cases still a big, fat goose egg), there may still be some actionable information as we seek to discern the signal amongst the noise.
Disclaimer time! Now that real, live football is upon us, I need to clarify the overarching rationale behind my advice. As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Therefore and for example, when I say a player is a “buy high,” it’s not solely due to the week he just had. Instead, guidance will also take into account his current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he performed.
Much as in previous iterations of this weekly series, I will list one player apiece who I’ve bucketed into the following categories:
- Buy low
- Buy high
- Sell low / Drop
- Sell high
- Add (Big Bucks)
- Add (Pennies)
One last note, as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.
With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week two:
Buy Low – Romeo Doubs, WR GB
Week 1 Line: 4-26-2 (5 targets)
Is Doubs going to score just under four points per target every week? Anything is possible, but my guess is probably not, especially with teammate Christian Watson potentially coming back in the near future. But his week one line remains notable, nonetheless.
Though fellow receiver Jayden Reed and tight end Luke Musgrave both accrued higher yardage totals, Doubs either equaled or surpassed their target totals. While this isn’t inherently a cause for celebration, I find it notable as the talented sophomore was fairly close to a game-time decision due to a balky hamstring. As manifested in a 48% snap count, he was only expected to play in a limited manner – that he still received and devoured his slice of the pie (including the fantasy-critical end zone targets) is a step in the right direction.
I noted in my Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold series that the Packers have arguably the murkiest pass-catching corps in the NFL, and this rang true with six players having between three and five targets against the Bears. If Doubs can get fully healthy and continue to score the ball (he had three total touchdowns as a rookie), the off-season commentary as chronicled here on DLF may prove prescient:
Buy High – Tyreek Hill, WR MIA
Week 1 Line: 11-215-2 (15 targets)
Are you not entertained?
Off-season questions still surrounded Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and fairly so. But Hill’s talent was never the subject of interrogation, especially after his maiden voyage in Miami resulted in the most receptions and yards of his career. And while at the time of this writing the dust hasn’t quite settled in week one, Hill’s 44.5 points seem likely to win the week at the receiver position.
While noting there’s a lot of season left to be played by a wealth of great players, Hill might very well be the best in the business at the moment. Though his longevity may be lesser due to his age, it almost doesn’t matter if he’s going to lap the field in this manner. While I wouldn’t ever advise selling young studs like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, it’s at least a conversation depending on what else you could get along with Hill. With guys like CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle and Chris Olave, the difference in ADP may be dwindling sooner rather than later.
Sell Low/Drop – Russell Wilson, QB DEN
Week 1 Line: 27/34, 177 yards, 2 touchdowns; 1 carry for 1 yard
Sure, it was a clean game by the veteran, but that’s a pretty low bar given the abject tragedy of his 2022 campaign. But even with this, the box score results simply weren’t there, likely due to a putrid 5.2 YPA. Given Wilson’s either inability or unwillingness to take off and run (just a single carry for a single yard), that won’t get it done from a fantasy perspective in a 1QB league.
The Broncos feature a lack of playmakers, but a running back and tight end just can’t be the two leading receivers on the team. Perhaps Jerry Jeudy will open the offense back up, and maybe Head Coach Sean Payton will turn back the clock and unlock Wilson’s former magic. But these are a lot of “what if?” scenarios in a fantasy regular season that only has 13 more actionable games – given Wilson’s chaotic maiden voyage in Denver (including a heavy reliance on yards after the catch by his pass catchers), and the time it may still take to gel with a new coaching staff, I’m not sticking around to find out.
Sell High – Justin Fields, QB CHI
Week 1 Line: 24/37, 216 yards, 1 touchdown/1 interception; 9 carries for 59 yards (1 fumble lost)
Despite a significantly improved support cast including off-season acquisition DJ Moore, it was nonetheless more of the same for Fields. His 5.8 YPA versus the Packers rendered moot a slightly improved 65% completion percentage, and unfortunately the young signal caller couldn’t make up for it with his legs as he was kept out of the end zone. On the day he had more turnovers than scores, and a lucky streak that resulted in all nine fumbles recovered in 2022 ended with his first cough-up of 2023 winding up in the hands of the opposition. Frustratingly, Fields also took another four sacks, and his interception returned for a score in the early fourth quarter effectively ended the game.
Fantasy points occasionally blind us to real-world evidence, but Fields simply hasn’t helped produce the latter. He’s still young, but if he doesn’t progress the Bears have two bites at the apple in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Given his current status in the ADP hierarchy, owners need to have a good think about when it might be best to cash out.
Add (Big Bucks) – Kyren Williams, RB LAR
Week 1 Line: 15-52-2, 0-0-0 (2 targets)
Based on the most recent ADP, Williams may be kicking around on your league’s waiver wire (he was either undrafted, or selected in the final seven picks in five of six mock drafts comprising the averaged values). But given his somewhat surprising usage, this won’t be the case for much longer.
It’s true Cam Akers led the way (though noting much of this was rooted in garbage time), but factoring out Matthew Stafford’s three rushes, Williams managed to sequester just over 40% of the load (and a majority of offensive snaps). He also received valuable red zone touches and punched in two scores while coming just short on another, while also performing in a more efficient manner than Akers. The Rams somewhat surprisingly rolled over the Seahawks, but in closer games, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assert Williams’ usage will extend to the passing game (he had 78 receptions in college). Given this, along with head coach Sean McVay’s occasionally strained relationship with Akers and the mercurial nature of the running back position, I’d be comfortable spending around 40-50% of my FAAB on Williams.
Add (Pennies) – Kendrick Bourne, WR NE
Week 1 Line: 6-64-2 (11 targets)
Only being selected in a single mock draft comprising the most recent DLF ADP, there’s a strong likelihood Bourne is available in your league. So with a crisp 24.4 PPR points accumulated in week one, why is he only worth pennies? To me, it’s because of the historically volatile nature of the New England offense.
First and foremost, quarterback Mac Jones attempted a whopping 54 passes in the Patriots’ furious comeback attempt, which led to statistical anomalies such as Ezekiel Elliott receiving seven targets (he turned them into a rugged 14 yards). In fact, six New England players received six or more targets – Bourne led the way with 11, but ultimately this was still a highly fanciful scenario. Moving past that, the Patriots receiving room has historically utilized something of a “greater than the sum of its parts” mantra, with individual glory giving way to a spread-the-wealth mentality.
In spending time in Boston during grad school, I remember firsthand the fun days of Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman establishing singular dominance. With the current Patriots, however, it could be just as likely that Demario Douglas or Mike Gesicki leads the way in week two. I’m not ignoring what Bourne did, but rather putting it into context – I think he’s worth 10-15% of FAAB, with perhaps a bit more if you’re in dire straits at the position.
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