Dynasty Blueprint: Week Ten

Ryan McDowell Posted On November 17, 2021

This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. Here, you’ll find my “Game Notes,” which comes directly from my fantasy football notebook, along with multiple post-game conversations with others. In the “Game Play” section, I’ll explain what I’m doing with my personal dynasty teams, including waiver wire targets and trade ideas. Finally, “Game Theory” will focus on dynasty strategy.

Game Notes

Something odd is happening in Miami. Second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has now entered the past two games as active, but not the team’s starter. That prompted the understandable questions about Tagovailoa’s status, with some even suggesting he’d been benched. After starter Jacoby Brissett suffered an injury, Tagovailoa entered the game and helped his team pull off the upset win over Baltimore. Later, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores announced that Tagovailoa would start in Week Eleven, so perhaps all is back to normal in South Beach.
Antonio Gibson needed the bye week as badly as any player in the league. Nursing a leg injury for much of the season, Gibson has simply not been effective this year. Coming off the Week Nine bye, Gibson enjoyed his best game of the season against one of the league’s toughest run defenses. Gibson totaled 78 yards and two touchdowns on a career-high 24 carries and looked as healthy as he’s been all year. It might be too late for Gibson to live up to the hype he entered the season with, but this game felt like the start of a positive trend for the Washington back.
With Chase Claypool joining fellow Steelers receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster on the sidelines for the team’s Week Ten game, Diontae Johnson did what he always does. He soaked up 13 targets, catching seven for 83 yards. Johnson has been an uber-consistent producer this season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in every contest this year. In a year full of injuries and disappointing performances, that reliable production is so valuable. With that said, Johnson’s value is creeping up and I’m not sure I’m comfortable with that. He’s up to WR13 and an early-third rounder in our November dynasty ADP, ahead of Joe Mixon, Chris Godwin and many others. As good as Johnson has been, he will have trouble living up to that value, so it might be time to pivot.
The Dallas Cowboys welcomed receiver Michael Gallup back to the lineup and he had a major impact. While his three catches for 42 yards may not seem crucial, his five targets were significant. Tight end Dalton Schultz, who had set himself apart as a weekly fantasy starter earlier in the season, drew just two targets, catching one for four yards. Schultz will still pop off with the occasional standout performance, but can no longer be counted on as a weekly starter.
As if the Falcons offense wasn’t already in bad shape, breakout performer Cordarrelle Patterson suffered an ankle injury that will cost him some game time. Rather than giving his workload to Mike Davis, Atlanta relied on Wayne Gallman, who finished with 76 total yards. The coaching staff would later claim that choice was about preserving Davis for the team’s Week Eleven game, but I don’t buy that. Davis is a full-blown roster-clogger.
Rookie quarterback Mac Jones enjoyed the best game of his young career, throwing for three scores as the Patriots destroyed the Browns. With that said, Jones didn’t even crack 20 fantasy points for the week. I do remember a similar narrative for Tom Brady early in his career. Brady was an impressive “real” NFL quarterback but didn’t display the fantasy upside we have since become accustomed to. Brady posted four QB1 games in his first year as the starter and finished as QB21. I will not be the one calling Jones the next Brady but it is far too early to give up on Jones. He’s a dynasty buy.
It was not exactly wise to rely on Bills running backs Zack Moss or Devin Singletary prior to Week Ten but now Buffalo has seemingly moved to a three-man committee. Veteran back Matt Breida got involved Sunday, scoring a pair of touchdowns and claiming six touches. This is a clear avoid in all fantasy formats.
Maybe it’s the knee injury. Maybe it’s the deeper routes he’s been tasked with in recent weeks. Whatever it is, the early-season stretch of Mike Williams‘s performance is looking more and more like a fluke. Dynasty managers reacted quickly, maybe too quickly, pushing Williams into the top three rounds of dynasty ADP after his hot start. Over the past five games, Williams is the WR80 in total points after ranking as the WR2 after the first five weeks of the year. Williams is no longer a weekly starter and the talk of the Chargers using their Franchise Tag on the wideout suddenly seems silly.
The Panthers and Cardinals matchup brought many surprises, the first of which was Carolina’s hot start and eventual easy win over the Kyler Murray-less Cardinals. In what proved to be an easy win, running back Christian McCaffrey looked like the fantasy stud we have always known him to be, catching ten passes and rushing for nearly 100 yards. McCaffrey’s return is not good news for everyone though. When McCaffrey is on the field, receiver DJ Moore’s fantasy production dips by two points. In this game, Moore still drew seven targets but that was good enough for just 24 yards.
This game also featured the 2021 debut of Cam Newton, who is back in familiar surroundings with Carolina. Newton played just a few snaps as PJ Walker drew the start but Newton was still responsible for two touchdowns. Matt Rhule saw enough from Newton, later suggesting he would start in Week Eleven. We know Newton is perhaps the best goalline back in the league and that is sure to have an impact on McCaffrey. In fact, McCaffrey is worse in nearly every statistical category in his 33 career games with Newton, compared to his 23 without Superman. Uh oh!

Maybe, just maybe, Courtland Sutton is not that good. Jerry Jeudy has been active in four games this season, missing multiple games with an ankle injury. In those four games, Sutton has six total receptions and hasn’t finished higher than WR62 in a week. A quarterback upgrade would certainly make a difference but I am done assuming the Denver organization will solve that anytime soon. For the record, Jeudy has not been a standout himself but has consistently outproduced his teammate. In fact, in the five games they’ve played together, Sutton has never scored more fantasy points than Jeudy.
Aaron Jones went down with an MCL injury that is expected to cost him a couple of weeks of action. As if that weren’t bad enough for Jones and his fantasy managers, he was already being outplayed by his teammate AJ Dillon even before the injury. It’s been easy to see this one coming as Dillon’s role has been steadily increasing throughout the year. Factor in the past usage of Jones and Jamaal Williams and there is real cause for concern. The good news is that Jones has proven he doesn’t need a workhorse role to produce fantasy points but he was being valued with the likes of Ezekiel Elliott and Austin Ekeler during the off-season and early portion of the year, and that is not realistic any longer. Dynasty managers are certainly a fickle bunch. With that injury in mind, I asked my Twitter followers to make a choice, and the results were surprising.

Which RB do you prefer in a dynasty league?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 16, 2021

The Chiefs are back. Finally. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce each produced just like we’ve been expecting them to all season, facing off against the familiar Raiders. I do have some slight concerns about what happens against other opponents in the coming weeks but this was comforting and refreshing at the same time.
The play of Mecole Hardman was not such a bright spot for the Chiefs. After weeks of being a tease as the team’s WR2 behind Hill, Hardman seemingly got demoted, playing fewer snaps and running fewer routes than Byron Pringle or Demarcus Robinson. Hardman caught two balls for 27 yards. He’s a fancy roster-clogger.

Game Play

I don’t think there is enough accountability in the fantasy sports industry. While there is a great deal of nuance beyond a win-loss record, I am adding a weekly update about how my personal leagues are going in an effort to increase that accountability, at least for myself.

Dynasty Leagues: 18
Week Five Record: 14-7 (some leagues use weekly doubleheaders)
Season-Long Record: 142-86

We’re now ten weeks into the season and waiver wires are barren. If you do notice a potentially impactful player is available, spend it all in order to acquire them. You have nothing to lose. Later in the year, I’ll highlight some players to stash on dynasty rosters as the season draws to an end. For now though, continue to seek assets who can be valuable and helpful in the short term.

This week, that includes Wayne Gallman, who should see additional work for the Falcons with Cordarrelle Patterson banged up. Mike Davis has been bad all year and even Patterson has struggled to gain yardage on the ground in many weeks, relying on touchdowns and work in the pass game to boost his PPR numbers. This is not a backfield to chase in general, unless you are desperate at the RB2 spot.
Patrick Taylor saw a few carries following the injury to Aaron Jones. With the starter expected to miss only two games, Taylor is unlikely to make an impact but is worth an add in deeper leagues.
The Lions were without veteran Jamaal Williams last week and rookie backup Jermar Jefferson left the game early with an injury. That led to a huge workload for D’Andre Swift, who saw career highs in carries and rushing yardage but also an opportunity for Gibson Igwebuike, who finished as the RB23 for the week. If Williams doesn’t return to the lineup soon, the former defender Igwebuike is worth a look.
Deonte Harris and Ray-Ray McCloud are special teams weapons getting increased work with their respective offenses due to injury. Those are usually difficult players to trust but the Cordarrelle Patterson breakout gives those players and fantasy managers hope. I’d opt for Harris between the two as he has now produced three WR3 games over the past month and seems to have a rapport with new starter Trevor Siemian.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.