A View from the 1.11: Rookie Draft Strategy

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now just mere hours away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this 12-part series, we will use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, we’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, we’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12-team PPR, one-QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

1.11

The Pick: Kenneth Gainwell, RB

Often considered the fourth running back in the class, there is a significant discount when compared to the other three ahead of Gainwell. He had one season of college production where he had over 2,000 yards and 16 touchdowns. Do not let his slightly smaller frame deter you from drafting the player who forced Antonio Gibson to play wide receiver at Memphis.

He is the best pass-catching back in the draft class, especially amongst the top backs. He is going to be a day two pick, and is a great option to add at this point in the draft. We can never have too much running back depth in dynasty leagues.

Possible Pivots

The natural pivots are likely going to come at wide receiver: Elijah Moore and Terrace Marshall, depending on what you prefer. Fully expect both to be top 50 picks in the draft, but this is right in the middle of a big tier of receivers that will shake up after the draft.

Trade Value

• 1.11 draft pick, 4.11 draft pick for Joe Burrow
• 1.11 draft pick and 300$ FAAB for Tyler Boyd
• 1.11 draft pick, Joe Burrow, AJ Dillon and Anthony Firkser for Jonathan Taylor

Superflex Options: Mac Jones, QB

Owners seem to not be on board with Jones despite him being the betting favorite at 1.03. If he does go to San Francisco, he will likely go up boards slightly, but if you can get him here you have to. If you need a receiver, Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith would be great options here as well, as they get pushed down from all the quarterbacks going early.

2.11

The Pick: Trey Lance, QB

In 2019, Lance had one of the most impressive seasons we have seen. We can argue that it was at the FCS level, but with 2,786 yards and 28 TDs through the air and 1,100 and 14 TDs on the ground, Lance is a serious dual threat. Lance managed all of this without throwing a single interception as a redshirt freshman. His stock went to the moon, as the kids these days say.

This is a fabulous spot to add a player with an extremely high ceiling without paying a premium cost for a Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. I often look for these quarterbacks at the back of the second or top of the third, hoping to land a Justin Herbert type who the community is down on.

Possible Pivots

To expand on my earlier point, I would consider Zach Wilson here if he slips in your league. Brevin Jordan at tight end could be a great option as one of the last in tier two at the position. Amari Rodgers is another guy who is slightly undersized but at 215 could be a force out of the slot.

It is very rare you will find a slot option who weighs 215 lbs, and with day two draft capital, he could be a nice producer for any fantasy roster. Another option is Tamorrion Terry if you like a boom-or-bust option here on a strong team.

Trade Value

• 2.11 draft pick for Kenyan Drake
• 2.11 and 2.06 draft pick for Julio Jones
• 2.11 and 2.03 draft pick for Cooper Kupp

Superflex Options: Kadarius Toney

Toney has been a massive riser, after posting having an excellent senior season. There has been a lot of speculation in regards to his projected draft capital, with him potentially slipping into the first round at one point. I very quick, well-built slot option who should be a contributor to an NFL team from week 1. The biggest slight on him is his late breakout, not producing early and inconsistent hands. At this point in the draft it could be worth the flyer. Two more names to consider are Seth Williams and Pat Freiermuth.

3.11

The Pick: Tamorrion Terry, WR

When watching tape of Terry, you can’t help but see a freak athlete with the size and speed that just screams upside. For late-round picks, upside should always be the goal, which is why Terry makes so much sense. He had a few issues at Florida State and this may contribute to him being a day-three selection who has day-two talent. There is a lot to like, and he could be a steal in rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots

Running back Elijah Mitchell from Louisiana-Lafayette has great size, had great testing numbers, and has been rising up draft boards. If he wasn’t playing in the Sun Belt conference there would be a lot more buzz around him. Anthony Schwartz, the Auburn wide receiver, is another great pivot. With Olympic sprinter speed, he is easily the fastest player in the draft. At 6’0″ and 186 lbs, he is a legit field-stretcher who could burn anyone.

Trade Value

• 3.11, 3.12 and Andy Dalton for 3.02
• 3.11 and Antonio Brown for 2.11
• 3.11 for Taysom Hill

Superflex Options: Nico Collins, WR

Despite limited college production, the versatile Collins has been a riser in the dynasty community. He is a former four-star prospect and could not overcome the horrible quarterback play at Michigan. He should not be ignored as another player with high upside but is lower in drafts due to limited production. He is very similar to Donovan Peoples-Jones – also out of Michigan – but in my opinion, Collins has always been the better player.

4.11

The Pick: Jonathan Adams, WR

The small-school product put together an impressive senior season, going for over 1,100 yards with 12 TDs. He also has great size at 6’3″ and 220, but the adjustment to the NFL game will be a big one for him. This combination of late breakout and competition makes for a very low hit rate, but being ideal size checks a box that can help him win against smaller corners.

Possible Pivots

Dazz Newsome out of North Carolina, who played alongside Dyami Brown. While Newsome is underwhelming athletically, he showed he could produce in the ACC for the past two seasons. Chris Evans is another option who is popular in NFL circles. He is a talented athlete out of Michigan.

Superflex Options: Davis Mills, QB

Any time you can get a day-two quarterback this late in a rookie draft, it is worth the shot. Mills is a little underwhelming on tape but can make all the throws and like Kellen Mond, has been rising up draft boards and could be drafted as a backup or replacement for an older quarterback.