Sunday Six Pack: Week 12
In my last Sunday Six Pack, I told you to sell Nick Foles, keep Mitchell Trubisky, buy Myles Gaskin, that AJ Green is dirt cheap (still is), sell Darrell Henderson, and monitor the situation in the Bucs backfield so you can immediately sell whichever running back starts to fade in weeks five and beyond. Not bad!
I also told you to hold David Johnson because things would definitely get better down the stretch. Even if you want to blame it on his injury, I still think I was dead wrong on this call. He didn’t look anything like his old self, and he needs to be sold by all owners in the off season.
Can’t win them all.
Here’s some observations for this coming week 12 games and beyond:
1. Buy Curtis Samuel
If I gave you 40 guesses on who the top seven wide receivers are over the last five weeks in average points per game, I don’t know if you’d name him or not, but Samuel has been a fixture in the Carolina offense since his return from a knee sprain in week five. Over that span, Samuel has racked up 76 total fantasy points in 0.5 PPR leagues, which is fifth-best among all wide receivers.
Not only has he been catching the ball quite frequently, but he has also run the ball 26 times — second in the league among wide receivers — for a total of 75 touches on offense this season, averaging 7.5 touches per game. Samuel was 20 years old when he entered the league, is in the last year of his rookie deal, and is just now finding himself in the NFL. His game is on the rise, and he still has a couple years until he reaches the prime age for wide receivers.
The best part is that I’ve seen him go for relatively cheap in many leagues. A fair price to pay would be a future second-round pick, which I think would be a good investment based on available players in the draft on draft day, but I’ve also seen multiple trades happen such as the ones below. This leads me to believe that Samuel is greatly under-appreciated, and therefore value can easily be attained.
Below are some recent trades involving Samuel using our Trade Finder:
2. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines
I’m noticing a pattern emerging in Indianapolis that is similar to the one Philip Rivers created during his time in San Diego and Los Angeles. It consists of a workhorse running back and a PPR back, both of which became viable options with the Chargers over the last several seasons.
I know that a lot of people are currently not happy with Taylor’s production in 2020, but this is exactly what I expected when I wrote about him back in March of this year. His power game will excel over time, and his liability in the passing game will be supplemented by the use of Hines.
The result will be a dynamic duo where two RBs will be viable options with the Colts. Don’t panic if you own Taylor, as he will slowly learn the game and become the type of back you drafted him to be, even if he has down weeks or misses time – as he is this week after being put on the Covid-19/reserve list and being ruled out. As for Hines, he’s worth a low lowball offer this year and should be serviceable this season and next at the very least.
3. AJ Dillon is a sneaky stash
I’m still very much on the Dillon train as I was back in April of this year. The reason is that both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are on the last year of their contracts, and the Packers never seem to spend money on running backs, or any free agent for that matter.
Enter Dillon, who the Packers selected in the second round of the 2020 rookie draft. That’s a lot of draft capital to use on any player, but what’s the rush? Both Jones and Williams have done a phenomenal job this season, and there’s no need to put Aaron Rodgers at risk with a rookie RB in pass protection.
It’s also worth repeating that in the searchable history of the NFL combine, only eight running backs have ever weighed more than 240 pounds and ran faster than a 4.55 40-yard dash. Of those eight, you will find players such as Steven Jackson, Leonard Fournette, Derrick Henry, Beanie Wells, and TJ Duckett. Dillon is in this group, and it’s yet to be seen what he’s capable of in this prolific Packers offense.
If you own Dillon, he’s a stash until the 2021 season figures itself out. If Jones moves on to another team, Dillon’s value will skyrocket.
4. Is Breshad Perriman relevant?
The once highly sought-after Perriman is having a decent season with the Jets, but is there more here, and should we be buying or selling? One thing to consider is that there was already a relationship between Perriman and Joe Flacco, who were teammates in Baltimore for over three seasons.
Another thing to consider is the Jets are sorely lacking talent on offense, and they constantly find themselves needing to score points in bunches. Perriman is a deep threat and Flacco is a deep ball passer. This is a marriage made out of convenience due to situation, not talent.
He has one catch in the red zone this season, only 28 catches on the year so far, and almost 50% of his production has happened in his prime time games. I’ve heard a lot of buzz surrounding Perriman as a good buy low candidate heading into next season, but I think I’m going to go the other way.
Flacco is a band aid quarterback as much as Perriman is a band aid wide receiver. Both rely on each other to be fantasy-relevant. Either sell now or sell in the off-season. I don’t think there’s anything to see here.
5. Dallas Cowboy quarterback situation
What’s getting interesting is the Cowboys situation at quarterback. Both Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton are in the last year of their deals. The Dallas Cowboys are spiralling downward and have some decisions to make regarding the most important position in the NFL. This could go a multitude of different ways.
Prescott suffered a terrible injury and will no doubt require a long rehabilitation process. He was in the process of seeking a long-term deal that would pay him similarly to the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Will the Cowboys still feel this is feasible, or will they rather use their almost-certain top ten draft pick on a rookie quarterback, and re-sign Dalton to a veteran and cap-friendly deal and start anew?
There’s no doubt Prescott will still be a hot commodity in the fantasy world, but I don’t know if that means he’ll be back with the Cowboys. Not only may he find himself on a new team in 2021, but it may be a couple seasons before he becomes a dominant force as he once was when he was healthy.
6. Consider selling Miles Sanders
This isn’t because I think Sanders is bad or in a decline, but because of the volatility of the position in general. Sanders has increased his output from 11.5 points per game in 2019 to 13.5 points per game in 2020 (0.5 PPR). He’s only 23 years old, and he’ll only keep improving.
But what is he actually capable of on this anemic Eagles offense? The best running backs in the league are dual threats on powerful fantasy offenses, and players like Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara rule the roost.
I don’t think the same can be said for Sanders, who has struggled finding cut back lanes, isn’t as dynamic as the players mentioned above, and is on an offense that is still finding its identity. I think a lot of people still value Sanders as a blue chip prospect, but I think he’s merely a great player, not an elite one.
This is an important distinction to make before the 2021 fantasy rookie draft takes place. I think Sanders can be sold for James Robinson and a future pick, maybe even a first, while he’s still valuable.
Robinson is also a dual threat, and has been better than Sanders has ever been with nearly 16 points per game, despite playing alongside multiple quarterbacks so far this season. If you were to trade Sanders for Robinson and a pick, a swap in RBs would mostly be a lateral move, and you’d gain an extra pick to boot.
My philosophy is this: If you own a stud RB who is capable of carrying your team to victory, such as the three I mentioned above, then keep them around. If you have anyone else — especially Miles Sanders — I think it’s worth looking at diversifying into a different RB and a pick than it is to hold out for more.
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