How and Where to Pick Running Backs
The 2023 NFL Draft is over, and landing spots have been declared. In your dynasty leagues, you have a plethora of picks in all rounds and are eager to fill up a position of need; running back.
Who do you target? When do you make the selection? How do you know who to pick and why? Worry not. This article is here to help guide you through your running back woes. I will often reference my final ranks, so take a quick glance if you haven’t seen them.
The first thing to mention is to never force a pick of a running back if it’s unnecessary. That’s how people were burned with Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Trey Sermon in the previous drafts. If you need a running back and are on the clock, take the best player available.
The number one rule of dynasty is to draft for talent and trade for need. You have four months to trade to fill the void, so don’t force something that’s not there. You’ll have plenty of time between now and then to get something done.
FIRST ROUND
In this draft, we have Bijan Robinson and Jamyr Gibbs going in the top two in nearly all drafts. In my opinion, Robinson is in a tier all by himself. While Gibbs is an entire tier below him, he’s also a quality pick who could be a surefire stud in Detroit if appropriately used—Draft Robinson with confidence and Gibbs with positivity.
After that, we have two who sneak in towards the end of the draft Zach Charbonnet and Devon Achane. It’s a shame that Charbonnet was selected to a team that already had a competent back in Kenneth Walker, which likely means a split-back scenario in the run-heavy offense in Seattle.
While this is upsetting, let’s not forget the recent two-back systems that have been able to produce two startable fantasy players. We had Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in Dallas, and Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in Green Bay.
Based on the above, it’s not impossible that Charbonnet and Walker are both decent fantasy options starting this season. His value dropped after being selected by Seattle, but a spot ranging from tenth to 12th overall is still fair value. If you need a back and sitting at the tenth spot, there’s no shame in pulling the trigger.
Devon Achane, on the other hand, is a huge question mark that I cannot get on board with. Sure, he has excellent speed, and yes, we’ve seen the Dolphins put together a great game plan before, but that offense can’t possibly be run through a 5’9″, 185-pound speedster.
I like speed, but I like it better when it’s in the body of a player who weighs 30 pounds more than Achane. I think you can do better as a dynasty owner drafting a player from another position or trading back into the second round, where some real values can be had. Don’t reach on Achane. You’ll be sad if you do.
SECOND ROUND
Last year I called Rachaad White & Brian Robinson the darlings of the second round and players who will have the longest careers. I said Damien Pierce is your immediate impact player and one you should draft if you need a performer out of the gate. I called James Cook, your PPR back, and Pierre Strong, the most considerable risk.
Going to toot my own horn here; I really nailed it. If you scan that article, you may also see how much I liked Keontay Ingram, and that hasn’t changed. If you are looking for a cheap back to own for 2023 beyond what you find in this draft, Ingram could be a quality pickup. Anyway, this year has more of the same. We have bargains to be found all over the map, so the second round has me more excited than the first.
The first back going most often is Kendre Miller, who found himself in a satisfactory situation in New Orleans. He doesn’t need to be the lead back right away, and he gets to learn from one of the most dynamic backs ever to play the game, Alvin Kamara.
What Miller has that others don’t is his inside game. Kamara is not much of a “between the tackles” kind of guy, and that’s what I think Miller was drafted to be. If you need a performer for this season, Miller may be your guy. I wouldn’t reach for him as I don’t think he’ll ever be a top-15 back, but he’ll be an excellent compliment to any dynasty roster for a good four years.
Roschon Johnson is another guy I think was drafted to be more of a starter this season. I think Johnson has more power and better overall skills than Miller, though Miller has the better speed. If you want a higher ceiling, Miller is the pick. If you want a higher floor, Johnson has the edge.
Miller has been sneaking into the first round in some drafts, so you may be left with no option but to take Johnson in the second round if that happens. However, that’s a pretty good consolation prize.
Then we find our way down to my favorite back in the draft Chase Brown. Brown has all the intangibles to be a starter in this league, and being drafted to an explosive offense in Cincinnati is fantastic. Mix that in with the legal trouble Mixon found himself in, and drafting Chase Brown could very well net you the third-best rookie back in 2023!
Finally, we have Tyjae Spears, a speedster out of Tulane who I didn’t love as much as others. He made a name for himself over the final eight weeks of his collegiate career, and that’s not enough of a portfolio for me to fall in love with. I don’t see how his speed fits the Titans offense.
The vast majority of his runs are breakaways, and defenses being out of position. This is a red flag, and if I’m left with Tyjae in this round, I’d rather trade back to the third and take my chances there instead.
THIRD ROUND
Last year I said Zamir White and Isaiah Spiller were popular picks that I didn’t like. Meanwhile, I called Algeier a player to draft to flip immediately for a profit, and if that happened, then you definitely won the third round last year.
This year I think it will be more of the same. Five popular third-round picks are Tank Bigsby of the Jaguars, Israel Abanikanda of the Jets, Zach Evans of the Rams, Deuce Vaughn of the Cowboys, and Eric Gray of the Giants.
What all of these backs have in common is that they find themselves as a possible number two back to an obvious number one starter. My favorite from this group is Abanikanda, a player I found to be more polished than the rest.
Given that he’s on quite possibly the most potent offense in the group, I say he has the best chance to perform at the highest level. There’s also the injury factor last year with Breece Hall, so the desire to spread the load out more between the rest of the backs is something that should give Abanikanda a boost.
All these backs are acceptable, and each of these would be better handcuffs than lottery picks. If you own their respective starter, you’d be wise to lock up their handcuff to avoid holes in your lineup should an injury occur.
FOURTH ROUND
Last year I named one back worth having, and that was Isiah Pacheco. If you targeted him in every draft like I did, then you came away a huge winner.
This year you have several backs that will be irrelevant, so I will ignore mentioning them for now, but two backs I think have a chance to become worth something down the road are Chris Rodriguez and Lew Nichols.
Rodriguez was drafted to the Commanders, and he was tied for my fifth-highest rank during my pre-draft scouting. I think he has all the skills to become viable week one and enough talent to make an impact at some point during the season. I don’t think he’ll supplant Robinson this year, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it, either.
Lew Nichols is a darling pick of mine that you’ll need to be patient with. If you are unfamiliar, Lew Nichols led the NCAA in rushing in 2021. His senior year started great but collapsed when he fell prey to a non-contact injury midseason.
The draft capital and placement to Green Bay aren’t enticing at first glance, but given that AJ Dillon is in the final year of his rookie deal and Aaron Jones’s dead cap is at $17 million in 2024, there’s a possibility that Nichols can do the unthinkable and become the best deep sleeper of this draft class. Take him if you can afford to hold onto him and see what value he brings your team in 2024.
CONCLUSION
Remember not to force a selection. Look at all positions and take the best player available. If you need a running back, you have four months between now and kickoff to get one, but if you’re sitting on a pick and you can’t trade it, or you think the best player available is indeed a running back, then use this summary to help you make that selection. May all your choices be great ones!
- 2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: San Francisco 49ers - July 28, 2023
- The Dynasty Value of Trading a 2023 Rookie Pick for a 2024 Pick - May 19, 2023
- How and Where to Pick Running Backs - May 15, 2023
