Analysis of 2020 Rookie Running Backs by ADP: RBs 1-4
Now that the NFL Draft is drawing near and dynasty owners all across the country are making their draft boards, it’s time to start helping by reviewing all running backs in order of current average draft position. Not all players pan out at the NFL level, so I am going to be critical at times that require it.
The following is a quick summary of the top four running backs by ADP. In this series, I will review as many rookie RBs that I can cover prior to the draft, four at a time.
My track record over the past three seasons is near 100%, as shown on our DLF forums by users who have tracked my history, and evidenced by my critique of the top 16 running backs last year (Part One, Two, Three, Four) where I correctly picked the right backs to own and the ones to avoid.
I studied the following players for several hours each. I not only watched game footage but also searched for high school and collegiate interviews. Knowing if a player has the mental capacity to become a student of the game is vital, and since I can’t be in the same room with them, there’s no better substitute than interviews.
Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (ADP RB1)
Taylor stands at 5’10”, 226 pounds. He is already slightly bigger than your average running back, and if you consider his 4.39-second 40-yard dash with his weight, what you get is an incredible combination of power and speed. He is a back defenses will get tired of tackling over the course of a game.
Taylor comes in as a consensus RB1 and the above are just some reasons why. However, I uncovered more bad than good when reviewing this prospect. I found him to be fast and powerful, but not too shifty, and that’s where most NFL running backs find their success.
He has quick feet but doesn’t have much of the tools I look for in an NFL running back, like stop-and-go technique, jump cuts, or the patience to wait for a hole to open up. His hips didn’t always point downfield when avoiding a tackler, and he often leaned into his cuts rather than turn upfield.
He has tremendous deep speed but did not have the moves necessary to shake downfield defenders. He ran out of a power offense behind a lead blocker in almost every play, so I question if he has the ability to play in a zone scheme.
When obvious pass plays on third downs happened for Wisconsin, Taylor was often pulled from the lineup. This makes me question if he’s possibly a liability in the passing game where he can’t be trusted to block or catch the ball out of the backfield.
He did not create space at the line of scrimmage, but he did have good vision and awareness around him. His Combine numbers suggest that he has the physical traits necessary to be a good zone runner, but does not currently have the skill set necessary to step in and play in a complete NFL offense week one.
I see a smaller version of Derrick Henry whenever I watch Taylor carry the ball. He will need to go to a team that utilizes a power running game to be successful from the get go. Otherwise, you’ll have to be patient with his progress.
He’s a smart player with good football knowledge and has the traits necessary to be able to run zone, so if he does get drafted to a zone system I think he can be coached up to play it eventually. Just don’t expect him to be great during his rookie season. Where he gets drafted will dictate a lot of his value.
D’Andre Swift, Georgia (ADP RB2)
Swift has almost been the consensus RB2 since rankings opened up earlier this year, and it’s hard to argue against it. He has a compact frame, standing 5’8” at 212 pounds, only two inches shorter than the prototypical size for an NFL running back.
He finished his college career with just over 500 total touches for over 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns. He’s barely 21 years old, so his age and usage are both favorable entering the NFL draft.
Upon reviewing the film, it’s clear that Swift is suitable for a top draft spot. He has excellent vision and is able to see cut back lanes as they open. His jump cuts look quick and clean and he always keeps his hips pointed downfield at all times. He protects the football well, easily switching it away from defenders to minimize potential fumbles.
He’s also a patient runner, allowing his blockers to get set up prior to exploding through the line. He ran out of both power and zone, both inside and outside of his offensive line. The pro-style offense in Georgia prepared him well for the transition to the NFL.
His pass blocking is some of the best I have seen. He stayed on the field in nearly every third down and was able to plant his feet, square up, and keep his head pointed in the direction of the defender. This is a selling point that will boost his draft stock come April.
One criticism I found, if you can call it that, is that he has great stop-and-go feet when avoiding defenders, but only from right to left. In all the tape I watched, I saw him make this move over a dozen times, but never saw him go from left to right. It’s a small critique but it exists, and if I was able to spot it so will NFL scouts.
In one play that stands out, a first and ten vs Florida, Swift ran a belly-zone that starts frontside A-gap. An unblocked defender fills the hole without being touched, forcing Swift to jump cut and hurdle a defender, all while keeping his hips pointed downfield.
When he made it through the crowd, he utilized downfield blocking and set up his teammates for success. He switched the ball two times on the play to keep it away from defenders and used great stop-and-go technique downfield for extra yardage. It was truly an amazing play that not all running backs are capable of.
Last but not least, his interviews are fantastic. All the way back to his high school days, this kid knows and loves football down to its history and basics. He is a student of the game and will thrive in a classroom setting.
All in all, I do believe that he deserves to be considered as the possible RB1 for all drafts. His tape looks great and his rookie Combine numbers prove what I saw in film study. He’s a near-elite prospect who will thrive in any system. Draft him with confidence.
JK Dobbins, Ohio State (ADP RB3)
This is probably my favorite prospect of the bunch. He has the prototypical height at 5’10” and is only a few pounds away from the perfect weight, tipping the scales at 209 pounds. He’s fast, strong, and has dominated the position at its highest collegiate level in his last three seasons as a starter.
The thing I love the most about Dobbins is how he gets creative in a game. The athleticism he possesses is probably the best of any rookie running back you’ll find. This kid has talent that can’t be coached, and that alone sets him apart from nearly every other running back not named D’Andre Swift.
There are too many good things to talk about with this kid. Hours of video shows that he is a quick decision-maker who recognizes cut back lanes. These two traits are something all successful running backs need to have in their arsenal to be elite. It also proves he has great vision while running at full speed.
When running through the line and around the corner, Dobbins was tight to his blockers, wasting no time getting through open space. He ran outside zone, he ran counter, he ran power, etc. He was successful in every format, which means he is suitable for any NFL system.
Not only is he quick and explosive, but he utilized effective jump cuts and stop-and-go technique in every game. He was hard to bring down because he was able to avoid tacklers at close range and create space at the line of scrimmage. Through all of his moves, he was able to keep his hips pointed downfield.
On top of his running skills, Dobbins also proved to be vital in the passing game, both as a receiver and as a blocker. A player who can be a triple threat in the NFL is someone who can rack up big points in fantasy. Unlike other prospects coming out of college, Dobbins will be ready to dominate the NFL on day one.
If there is one negative that I must point out, it’s that he didn’t participate in the Combine because of a high ankle sprain he suffered in the last game of the season vs Clemson. Therefore, it’s impossible to verify what we saw on film, but if I was an NFL general manager, I would be willing to take my chances on this kid.
If you’re holding onto the 1.03 to 1.05 pick, I think you’re going to be in luck, as Dobbins will easily be the best value pick in the first round. If you own the 1.01 pick, I think trading back would be the wise thing to do. Most people are going to gush over Swift and Taylor. I think the best back in the draft might be Dobbins, and you can acquire him cheaper compared to others.
Cam Akers, Florida State (ADP RB4)
Akers is literally the prototypical size at 5’10”, 217 pounds. He’s not even 21 years old yet and has barely over 600 career touches, so he has a lot of gas left in his tank. It’s easy to see from the outset why he’s considered the fourth-best running back coming out of college.
I found his tape to be somewhat pedestrian if I’m being honest. He did what he was coached to do, and he did it the best of his ability. He’s deceptively fast and powerful, but beyond that there’s not much to love.
He wasn’t shifty and he didn’t create space. There’s little-to-no technique in his game. He played against subpar talent at Florida State and looked like the best player on the field simply because the talent around him was lesser.
I didn’t see him get put into a position to find cutback lanes, so I don’t know how good his vision truly is. It’s possible that his coaches played to his strengths, and the ability to read and react was not one of them.
Another knock against him is that some of his combine numbers were lackluster. His vertical jump and 20-yard shuttle times show that he may not have the explosiveness and burst needed to be successful in all facets of the game.
As for the positives, he proved that he can catch out of the backfield and stay in and block if needed. This means he has three-down back potential. This already sets him apart from most rookies entering the NFL, and is a reason why his draft stock is higher than others.
I think Akers will have to get drafted to a power system to be successful. The kid is smart, according to his interviews, so I think he can learn and do well if drafted to the right system. However, I probably won’t be using any draft picks on him myself. I’d rather hold out for someone who can be a star, not a role player.
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