Sunday Six Pack: Week Four
In this week’s Sunday Six Pack, we cover six more interesting dynasty topics.
Let’s get to it!
1. Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles?
The quarterback situation in Chicago just changed, and Foles finds himself in the middle of a controversy for what feels like the fifth year in a row. After a destructive start for Trubisky against the Falcons in week three, Bears coach Matt Nagy decided to start Foles in the second half.
Foles went 16 of 29 for 188 yards and three touchdowns, getting some extra help from his wide receivers along the way. The comeback in Atlanta prompted Nagy to declare him the starter in week four.
Statistically, this feels like a bit of a lateral move. Both players have similar career completion percentage (63.1% and 61.8%) yards per game (207 and 205) touchdown percentage (4.0% and 4.3%) and interception percentage (2.3% and 2.1%).
The only difference between the two, as far as I can tell, is that Foles is a proven leader. His teammates in Philadelphia loved him so much that they built shrines in their lockers. He’s a Super Bowl winner and MVP. He’s someone the players can rally around and play hard for.
I think Trubisky is lacking the leadership qualities that Foles currently possesses. Trubisky has done an okay job in Chicago with a 59% winning percentage and 22 more touchdowns than interceptions in four years, but he seems to have lost his teammates, fans, and coaches respect — for now.
Another fact to consider is that Foles threw two should-be interceptions versus the Falcons in the comeback win. Had either of those interceptions happened, or had Allen Robinson not turned into Superman, I don’t know if Foles would still be the starter heading into week four.
At this stage, I wouldn’t give up on Trubisky, and would even consider him a buy-low candidate if you need quarterback depth. For as great as he’s been at times, Foles has also failed for as many times and might find himself as a backup again soon enough.
If you own Foles, now would be a great time to sell a hot item to a team in need. The Lions and Packers both have bye weeks next week, and games are being postponed across the league. I think it would be a good idea to try and trade Foles to the owners of these quarterbacks using coverage as a selling point.
2. David Johnson should rebound
The Texans played two tough defenses with the Steelers last week and the Ravens the week before that. They rank first and ninth respectively versus rushing yards allowed per game. Johnson ran 24 times for 57 yards total in those two games.
The Chiefs, who the Texans played week one, rank 27th overall vs running backs. Johnson carried the ball 11 times for 77 yards versus Kansas City in that game. If he was fed the ball a little more, we’d have a 100-yard rusher on our hands, and one of the hottest running backs to start the season.
The next few weeks look outstanding for Johnson as he doesn’t play another top-third defensive unit until week ten at Cleveland. Now is the time to buy low if you’re looking for an inexpensive runner who has a track record of success.
Below are some example trades found using our Dynasty Trade Finder tool:
3. Is Myles Gaskin here to stay?
The Dolphins are paying Jordan Howard nearly $5 million to be on the roster this year, and gave up a fifth-round draft pick to acquire Matt Breida from the 49ers. Gaskin wasn’t on anybody’s radar entering the season, yet this undrafted running back out of Washington won the job without a preseason schedule to assist him.
So far this year he’s been good enough for RB25, which puts him as a decent flex play or more depending on your league settings. Even more encouraging is the snap usage increasing over time. Below is a sample of our Snap Count App, which shows Breida trending upwards, forcing his teammates to ride the bench more and more each game.
With the way the NFL is trending by utilizing RBBC, and the Dolphins having so many holes to fill on offense, acquiring Gaskin may not only be smart for this season but next season as well. Here are some sample trades using our Dynasty Trade Finder tool:
4. AJ Green is a sneaky buy low
Green ranks 73rd overall at the WR position in 0.5 PPR leagues. He’s been a disappointment and owners are looking to unload. What they should be doing is considering the situation instead.
Joe Burrow, an elite prospect at the collegiate level, is still just a rookie. He started only his third game last week, and he’s shown an improvement in each game since. His QB rating was 66.1, 90.6, and 105.5 in his three consecutive weeks as a starter.
On top of this, he’s targeted Green 28 times through three games. That puts him tied for seventh in the NFL. You know what they say; if the opportunity is there, the production is soon to follow.
Go ahead and make a small offer on Green before week four kicks off. He can be had for as little as a few late picks in the 2021 draft.
5. Is Darrell Henderson for real?
If you know me, you know my disdain for inconsistent running back Henderson. My original article on him — printed prior to the 2018 rookie draft — warned everyone to avoid drafting Henderson in the first round.
My second article explained that he had no chance at taking over Todd Gurley’s job, and that the Rams would be best served to find a niche for Henderson than to pressure him to be the eventual successor to a tremendously successful Pro Bowler.
Up until now, I’ve felt pretty confident in those assessments, but what I thought was impossible has now become reality; Henderson is the starter and he’s looking great doing it.
My brief analysis through three games is that the coaching staff has done a wonderful job game-planning Henderson successfully. He’s not making tacklers miss at the line of scrimmage. He’s not creating space. He’s not being asked to find a crease in the line and maneuver his body to fit in small spaces.
He’s being asked to hit a hole, or expect a cut back lane, and use his talent to exploit it. So far it’s been working, and who’s to say if he’s here to stay or not, but I would caution his owners to proceed with reserved optimism.
I believe Henderson to be nothing more than a system RB, and system RBs are a dime a dozen. Have fun using him in 2020, but I’d be very cautious moving forward when the season is over.
6. Ronald Jones versus Leonard Fournette in the long run
With Fournette out of the lineup this week, it will be interesting to see if Jones can step up.
One of these running backs has 31 touches for 157 yards and two touchdowns, while the other has 43 touches for 182 yards and 1 touchdown. It’s a similar comparison to the naked eye, but Fournette not only has more fantasy points because of his two touchdowns, but he’s also averaging more yards per touch (5.1 vs 4.2).
Fournette has only been in the system for three weeks, while Jones has been in Tampa Bay his entire career. If I had to take a guess at who would become the 1A in this system, I would have to give the nod to Fournette.
Not only are his stats slightly better, but I think he has the leadership qualities to boot. I understand that Fournette only inked a one-year deal with the Bucs, but if the success with running backs in Cleveland is anything to consider, it’s possible that we may find another such situation brewing in Tampa Bay.
For now, both backs are safe in a system that allows for success among multiple rushers but don’t be surprised to see a slow takeover of the position by one or the other. It’s up to you as a fantasy owner to monitor the usage, and when one starts to drop, that’s the player to sell before things get worse.
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- How and Where to Pick Running Backs - May 15, 2023
