2020 NFL Projections: Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans
In this series, we will be covering each team’s projections for the upcoming 2020 season. We will look at each position and briefly break them down then dive deeper into one situation that’s a bit more interesting to look at. Follow along as we go through all 32 teams, two at a time.
READ: Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams | Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers | New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants
I hope you enjoy this series and find it helpful and informative. Here we go!
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts were dealt a bad hand to start the 2019 season with the retirement of their franchise quarterback, Andrew Luck. Luck stepping down left a huge hole in the offense that can not be filled by just anyone. Jacoby Brissett filled in admirably but the impact was large. The Colts went from fifth to 17th in points scored from as well as dropping from sixth on passing yards and second in passing TDs in ‘18 to 30th in yards and 23rd in TDs in ‘19. That is quite a significant fall. They did see an improvement in the run game from 20th and 17th in yards rushing and TDs on the ground in ‘18 to 7th in yards and tenth in TDs.
They have added a veteran QB as well as several potentially important pieces at each skill position, some with the potential to be big factors for years to come. 2020 is where we are going to focus.
The new quarterback coming over from the Los Angeles Chargers is on the backside of his career but the Colts paid Philip Rivers $25 million on a one-year contract. For Indianapolis, the time is now. You may think Rivers is trending down but his 2019 season may be the sole reason for this. The 16-year vet threw his fewest touchdowns since 2007 and had a career-low TD rate (3.9%) but just a year prior, Rivers threw 32 touchdowns (third highest of career) with the second-highest TD rate (6.3%) of his career. Rivers threw the second-most interceptions of his career (20) but had just 12 the year before.
The Colts must think there is something left in the tank and my projections do have him having a better fantasy season but not a high-end showing. The Colts are going to more than likely utilize the run game and short passing game with how Rivers distributed targets the last few seasons for the Chargers.
The running game has been an area of a lot of speculation and guesswork. Here are the facts. We know that Indianapolis has drafted three running backs in the last three seasons (2017-19) – Marlon Mack in the third round in 2017, and Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins in the fourth and fifth round in 2018. They also added a running back in Jonathan Williams who had been on two teams in three seasons in the league and did not play in 2017. Last, but certainly not least, the Colts traded up in the early second round to draft former Wisconson Badger, Jonathan Taylor – one of the most accomplished college prospects we have ever happen. Frank Reich always has a designated pass-catching option… Or does he?
//Thread//
Frank Reich always has a dedicated pass catching RB… Right?
I looked at this while doing projections and thought I'd post my findings.
->2014
Branden Oliver out targets Donald Brown 45 to 41. Oliver had 75 more att than Brown.Oliver 14gm, 160 att, 36/45 tgt
…— David Willsey (@willson8tor) August 25, 2020
Jonathan Taylor, RB
Taylor’s DLF ADP has recently peaked following some training camp news, comments from Marlon Mack himself stating his admiration of Taylor and his game, and some pictures and videos that show us just how much of a physical specimen he is. Some may say that I am crazy having Taylor catching the most passes from the running back position. I could be but this was not just me slapping numbers on a page.
Many factors were taken into account when determining the running back target shares including research from the above Twitter thread, the quarterback he now plays with, and the potential that a prospect like Taylor possesses.
2020 Running Back Draft Thread: 3/16
Jonathan Taylor (The RBPC Poster Child)
Round 2: Pick 41 to the IND Colts
3rd RB Taken/ Proj 1st RB (Early 2nd)
Prospect Grade: A+
Chance For Success: 98.33%
Risk Rating: 1 (0-5)
Capital ✔
Landing Spot ✔
Size ✔
BMI ✔
Speed ✔
Age ✔… pic.twitter.com/qFXVEDEo69— David Willsey (@willson8tor) May 3, 2020
The receiving game should take a step up from 2019 but more so based on improved efficiency rather than an increase in volume. Rivers has only had a completion percentage under 66% twice in the last seven years. Jacoby Brissett posted a 60.9% completion percentage last season.
The primary target assuming health, which has been an issue, will be TY Hilton. Hilton had by far his worst season in 2019 when considering the final numbers and time missed but he was on a 16-game pace that would have seen his seventh straight 100+ target season. Hilton battled quad and calf injuries throughout the season but prior to 2019, he had missed just four total regular-season games in eight seasons.
In the second round of the 2019 Draft, the Colts selected Parris Campbell out of Ohio State. There was a lot of speculation on how he would be used having such limited receiving numbers for a second-rounder but we would never really get to see this last season. Campbell battled abdomen and hand injuries through the season before landing on injured reserve to end it. As was mentioned in the first linked Twitter thread, it may seem like a shock to have Nyheim Hines with fewer targets than Taylor but I am projecting Campbell to play a versatile role in the offense and his earned targets will pull away from Hines more so than Taylor – hence the short per target receiving yardage projection.
Like Campbell before, Michael Pittman was drafted in the second round of the 2020 draft. Pittman steps into a great opportunity in Indianapolis. He has Zach Pascal, Ashton Dulin, Marcus Johnson, and others to compete with for the second outside receiving job. With the second round capital spent, he will get that opportunity. The ceiling may not be there like it is for some of the other rookie WRs but there should be a floor higher than basement level with the current competition.
Jack Doyle is always in the mix for streaming tight ends but 2020 maybe a year we can expect him to be more than a streamer. Doyle is going to be playing with a quarterback who knows a thing or two about using the TE position effectively and as fantasy players, we have been able to capitalize on this pretty consistently with Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. I have Doyle projected for over 50 receptions and nearing 500 receiving yards and four receiving TDs. This is a bit below consensus but we have to factor in the addition of Trey Burton as well who just two seasons ago caught 54 passes for 569 yards and six TDs.
Houston Texans
The Texans are always an interesting fantasy team. They have multiple players with very high ceilings and very low floors. In 2019, as per the usual, the only consistent high-level fantasy asset outside of the quarterback was DeAndre Hopkins. You could have started Carlos Hyde in standard or maybe got lucky on the couple of games Duke Johnson scored a TD in your PPR Will Fuller had one blow-up game. Darren Fells provided some streaming weeks but again, no consistency. Now, no Hopkins…
Deshaun Watson is going to be put to the test this year without his security blanket to fall back on. The nice thing is we have seen Watson and Fuller be an elite duo at times as well and now the team has multiple deep threat WRs with the addition of Brandin Cooks. Houston also gave Watson a reliable slot weapon as well in Randall Cobb who had a strong year in Dallas in 2019 playing the third or fourth option in the passing game. They also have two versatile pass-catching RBs to rely on so when he loses in completion percentage with the likely increase in deeper targets should be made up for with the shorter options that surround him as well. Last but not least, Watson had one of the most reliable rushing floors for a quarterback in 2020. During his three seasons in the league, he has posted an average of 5.7 attempts, 32.4 yards, and 0.4 TDs per game.
The running game is made up of two backs with similar skill sets. Different players, absolutely, but they are both very capable of handling a larger workload in the passing game. Neither is likely going to handle a very large workload on the ground. David Johnson did not look remotely close to his best but he was fantasy-relevant when on the field. We know Houston obviously still has faith that Johnson can be an effective asset for them as DJ is set to pull in over $11 million in 2020.
Duke Johnson will play his traditional role of backup but with David Johnson being the starter, there is a chance this could be Duke’s best chance to garner a decent number of the snaps. All Duke needs are opportunities as he is one of the most efficient fantasy RBs on a per-touch basis. As far as the receiving aspect, you may be surprised as to which one of the two was more efficient through the air.
David actually took a step up on a per-target basis and Duke went backward (these only reflect receiving fantasy points per target). A lot of people have all but given up on David Johnson.
People have been down on David Johnson following last season but I do have him projected for a very usable fantasy season. If you are a competing team, David may come at a value for you allowing you to hold onto some future draft assets or acquire some from his owner. If he were to get injured, saying Duke Johnson would just take over may be naive at this point. We have begged for Duke to get a shot at leading the backfield but we may never see it. Houston would likely split the duties with another back already rostered or look to sign a free agent. Here is how the two backs DLF ADP compares.
David Johnson was a top-tier fantasy RB as little as a year ago. Sometimes a change of scenery and scheme makes all the difference. Duke’s value spiked when we all thought he would get the majority prior to the start of the 2019 season. It was just more false hope as they soon acquired Carlos Hyde who became the primary first and second down option. Same story, different season for Duke.
The Receivers
We mentioned above that Hopkins is gone and Houston signed Cooks and Cobb. With these two, plus Fuller and Kenny Stills, Watson actually has a nice receiving corps.
Cooks may have been the least efficient of the current four on the roster right now but his per-target production was actually equal to that of Hopkins. They are far from the same receiver though. The player who will likely step into the DeAndre Hopkins role (favorite target) as long as he can stay healthy would be is Fuller. Fuller has the chemistry with Watson baked in already and with an off-season with so much uncertainty, that will be key. An interesting stat that may surprise you: Fuller has never caught a TD after week eight in any season. This includes the playoffs. You may say he is never healthy. Including the playoffs, Fuller has played in 20 games after week eight and 25 before.
Cooks had a very down year in comparison to the previous seasons with the Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, and New England Patriots. 2019 saw his fewest receptions, yards, touchdowns as well as his second-fewest targets and yards per game, We may not see all that much more as he is going to another crowded WR room but he will have boom weeks. One final thing: Cooks is not injury-prone despite the somewhat common narrative. He missed two games last season which were his first two games missed since his rookie season.
Cobb may have had a great bounce-back season last year in Dallas but the move across the state may not yield the same kind of results. Watson is not going to throw the ball nearly 600 times and will run more than Dak Prescott as well. Cobb may give you a couple of relevant weeks but nothing to rely on. The same will likely go for the rest of the receivers. Stills is worth a late pick in a best-ball format because he can go off at times but again, nothing to rely on.
Darren Fells, Jordan Thomas, and Jordan Akins will all see the minimal volume and are nothing more than streaming options. Fells has actually been a pretty efficient TD scoring option. Once every 8.5 receptions of Fells career have ended in the end zone. For a little context, Travis Kelce has scored a TD once every 19.3 receptions. Do not trust any of these options but Fells may be worth a stream in a great matchup.
Thank you for another one of my projection articles. Stay tuned for more and follow me on Twitter (@willson8tor).
