Brian Robinson Through the RBPC Lens: The DLF Rookie Running Back Series
Through the coming months, I will be evaluating this year’s running backs class the uniqueRBanalytics (RBPC) lens. This will give you a different perspective than you are used to. These will consist of a short write-up accompanied by a ‘Four Corners Fantasy Podcast Shortcast’ discussing the player more in-depth. Fifth on the list…
Brian Robinson, RB Alabama
- Age (for first NFL season) – 23
- Weight – 225 lbs
- Height – 73 inches
- BMI – 29.68
- 40-yard dash – 4.53 seconds
- Weight Adjusted Speed Score – 106.86
RBPC
- Profile Letter Grade – D
- Usage Designation – Hybrid
- Receiving Upside Designation – Low
- Pre Draft Prospect Grade – 16.0
- Risk Rating – 4
- CFS>Avg – -14.86% (Worse performer than the avg successful RB since 2005)
- Competition Grade – A
- Average Projected Draft Capital – 5.78 (Range – Early Fifth ->Early Sixth)
- Age-Adjusted Athleticism – 6.365
- Physical Toll Grade Injury Adjustment – 8.22% (Low associated injury risk)
How Much Does He Need The Logo?
In the fourth installment, we are going to look at yet another running back who gave himself a great boost at the NFL Combine a few weeks ago (previously Pierre Strong and Rachaad White). Brian Robinson waited for his turn for four years before receiving the lead role in the Alabama backfield in year five. He made the most of it but was it enough to forget the first four years? Let’s find out…
The Competition
Now it is only fair to first mention that one of the reasons the Alabama logo is viewed as essentially a Community Chest card in Monopoly that sends you straight to Go is because a lot of the best players in the country play there- at every position. Running back is no exception. Robinson played with a lot of NFL/ potential NFL talent alongside him in the backfield.
Past:
- Najee Harris
- Damien Harris
- Josh Jacobs
- Bo Scarbrough
- Jerome Ford (Fellow 2022 prospect that transferred)
- A running QB in Jalen Hurts
Present:
Robinson touched the ball in a college game 14 or more times just twice in his first four years. He did so in 13 of the 14 games he played in 2022. It was truly Robinson’s backfield, finally.
Image via Campus 2 Canton.
He is big. He is fast. We knew the prior…
Weight
Robinson sits in the range that produces the most consistent high-end fantasy production (with >30 in sample size).
… and now the latter has been confirmed.
But as you can see above in the Experience Adjust Backfield Dominator chart featuring the listed competition for touches, the season was below what you’d hope to see from a fifth-year prospect and it in no way compared to what Najee Harris did the year prior.
Physical Toll Grade
These are not rankings, to be clear. Physical Toll Grade (PTG) is a reflection of college performance based on usage, production, age, injury, athleticism, competition, and experience.
The first image is prior to the NFL Combine and the second is post. Shaded 40 times are unofficial estimates- sorted by Per Game. The RBPC is built so as not to weigh anything too heavily. Each RB is graded as a league-average athlete prior to testing. The only time you will see drastic movement is if the listed height and weight are egregiously off or a very large running back runs very fast/very small running back runs very slow. Even then, the large change in the performance grade may not alter the back relative to the rest of the class much if at all.
The initial draft capital range of outcomes is produced by the PTG for each player. For context, No running back since 2005 with a similar per game and per season PTG value as Brian Robinson has been drafted before round four. In the last two years, this range has only produced undrafted free agents. Robinson may need that logo more than we realize. Let’s look at his profile through the RBPC lens.
The Profile
What you see below is an example of the usage designations, what their requirements are, and how the NFL has valued them. They are pretty seamless as far as what’s required and how they are valued with the exception of the Satellite and Workhorse designations which really just shows us how much the league values versatility. You can also see an example of the success rates and draft capital by Profile Letter Grade.
Robinson received the Hybrid UD which has been valued by the NFL since 2005 in the pick 172 range. This fits in line with his projected capital in the model of 5.78 (mid to late fifth)…
Usage Designation
Image from NFL Mock Draft Consensus Big Board.
… but not with the expectation of the masses.
He looks a little like the next Seattle Seahawk running back (they like Hybrid+/Hybrid profiles with size).
Profile Letter Grades
Robinson’s D profile Letter Grade is definitely not good. Backs in this range produce a usable season (>=150 ppr points/ roughly translates to a top-30 season in a given year) 40% of the time since 2005. This is slightly higher than league average but the percentage of backs that hit an RB1 type season (>=225 ppr points) is 4.0%. That is considerably lower than league average.
In part four of the series, I gave a bit of insight into my process…
“I have been asked more than once, what I look for in a running back prospect… This is a difficult question to answer. If I were able to simply choose a type it would be between 210-230 lbs, above average athletic ability, consistently handled volume, versatile and efficie…… You know what? “Just Saquon Barkley” may as well be the answer… Does that answer help anyone? No. That player is once in a generation and we have seen many other RBs do well in their transition to the pros that did not possess a “perfect profile.”
“Different skill sets and talent levels can succeed in the league in different offenses and in different schemes. The things to look for in these profiles in 2022 are not the same as in 2005. Running back is a difficult position to analyze analytically and in the off-season, you will see many numbers-based ranking sets that demonstrate why the masses view running back as a largely film-based analysis position.
“We have long passed the days in which a player who misses on one predictive threshold is thrown by the wayside. As stated above, Different skill sets and talent levels can succeed in different offenses and different schemes. I weigh the different factors based on historical trends at the position and order them based on my perception of how the NFL will value them in the draft based on said trends. Elite traits or skill sets can bump up a subpar athletic or production profile or a perceived lack of a specific facet of the game can bring it down.”
…and Robinson is a good example of some of the points made. In particular “elite traits can bump up a subpar production profile” could very much come into play with Robinson. Weighing 225 pounds and running a low 4.5-second 40 yard dash is not too shabby and NFL teams will absolutely be paying attention to the confirmation of the athleticism he possesses (even if the NFL Combine times are a bit suspect or controversial in 2022).
Risk Rating
When we use the Letter Grade range (D+ -> D-) with Robinson’s Risk Rating of 4, the outlook is more bleak than either shows individually. There are 19 drafted running backs in that sample and they have produced one >=150 point PPR season and just 2 (10.5%) have produced any fantasy relevance.
Risk Rating uses injury, workload, and performance-based red flags to assess the risk of each profile.
A Brief Player History
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Robinson entered college life as a 218-pound, four-star prospect from Tuscaloosa. In his first two seasons at Bama, Robinson saw fewer than 100 total touches and did not catch a pass. In his third and fourth seasons, the hometown kid saw some usage (averaged 102 total touches) and was able to squeeze out some minimal passing game work. He garnered 35 receptions in his fifth season but as a whole, received a Low Upside Receiving Designation which historically, sees the least growth in their versatility from college to the pros.
As you can see, you can expect some sort of increase if he plays (although not a large sample size but at the same time it speaks to the importance of passing game usage because there are 42 drafted backs with a Low Upside designation).
Below, we see how Robinson compares – this time just to the four higher-level Alabama prospects in recent memory.
Even at that, how much should we really consider it to be a true reflection of the player?
In 2021
Brian Robinson receptions w/ Jase McClellan in 4 games – 4
Brian Robinson receptions w/o Jase McClellan in 10 games – 31 (7 games w/ >=3 receptions)
(Jase had 10 receptions pre injury in <5 games)
— David Willsey (@willson8tor) April 1, 2022
Pass Protection
Robinson displays quality pass-protection skill, has the requisite size to take the abuse, and impressed onlookers in the pass protection drills at the Reese’s Senior Bowl this year. Overall, he performed well enough to be named American Teams running back of the week.
Far From Efficient
Robinson sits in a weighted yardage accumulation area that provides a far less than favorable outlook. He averaged 0.121 DT/a per touch which is in the very low range.
Inefficient Heavily Used Producers
vW/T% 100%->120%
DT/a p/T 0.1->0.125Ty Goodson
Hassan HaskinsProbably best to be bigger rather than not if you struggled to find space
Athleticism hasn't meant much for the small ones either (image 4- <=205lbs/<=0.125 DT/a p/T) pic.twitter.com/gBylcW2z7n
— David Willsey (@willson8tor) March 9, 2022
Now to be clear, Robinson was not a heavily used producer (outside of 2021). He had a per game DT/a of 1.311. Again, in the very low range. Backs who have been similar DT/a producers per touch and per game leave a bleak outlook. Athleticism and size have not made a big difference whereas, in the sample of heavily used inefficient producers, size made a bit of a difference.
Sorted By Athleticism
Sorted By Size
The takeaway may be that if you are going to be hit regularly because of inefficiency, size helps but also, showing the ability to withstand that contact for an extended period of time – not just a year.
What Could He Be?
So, the question now is what can we expect from a prospect profile and player like Robinson? Was he just playing with a bunch of other NFL caliber backs at Alabama and we finally got to see what he is capable of? Or is what he is capable of far less than many expect?
Robinson’s NFL Combine performance will definitely gain some favor where the production profile left it lacking but as we saw above, that may not matter. We did gloss over a possibility that the Seattle Seahawks may like a profile like Robinson’s. This was not just because the profile had a similar usage designation as some previous Seahawks draftees. Based on the moves Seattle has made, one could assume they plan to keep a similar run-heavy game plan as we have become accustomed to. They also have multiple backs on the roster who have displayed durability issues and Chris Carson’s future is completely up in the air due to his neck injury in 2021.
Seattle is also not opposed to starting a back who garnered much less draft capital than another. Robinson looks somewhat similar to Carson through the RBPC lens – size, speed in the 4.5’s. Carson was the more efficient producer but did not play at Bama. It may not be Seattle in the end but in the fourth or fifth round, would it really shock you?
The Profile
Athleticism
Usage And Production
Physical Toll Grade
Carson may look a bit better in some areas but Robinson will not make it to round seven. It might just be with a little help from the logo… and the size and speed…
The Brian Robinson Shortcast
Now, please enjoy this short podcast breaking down Robinson a bit more.
FCFP Shortcast – The Logo Does Wonders
Thank you for checking out this piece in the DLF Rookie RB series. I hope you enjoyed it and found it informative. Follow along for more prospect evaluations from me (@willson8tor).
