2020 NFL Projections: Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In this series, we will be covering each team’s projections for the upcoming 2020 season. We will look at each position and briefly break them down then dive deeper into one situation that’s a bit more interesting to look at. Follow along as we go through all 32 teams, two at a time.
READ: Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams | Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers | New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons
I hope you enjoy this series and find it helpful and informative. Here we go!
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were, in large, Christian McCaffrey or bust in 2019. Cam Newton went down with a foot injury and missed the final 14 games of the season which limited the offense essentially from the start. The combination of Kyle Allen and Will Grier was uninspiring at best.
DJ Moore had a great real football season but a lack of touchdowns kept him from an elite fantasy season. That may sound odd for a 135-target, nearly 1,200-yard receiving season but 2019 was actually a very down year for fantasy receivers and without the TDs, Moore was still just the WR16 in PPR.
Greg Olsen played in more than nine games for the first time since 2016 but was just able to produce two touchdowns. It was just the third time in his career Olsen failed to score at least three times and just twice when he has been active for more than nine games.
Others had moments but CMC was the only very reliable fantasy asset. Newton and Olsen are gone now, and the Panthers have added a deep threat and a quarterback not known for his deep ball. The rest is pretty much the same. What does 2020 look like?
Teddy Bridgewater comes over from the New Orleans Saints where he was able to lead the team to a 5-0 stretch of games in the absence of Drew Brees. Teddy “Two-Gloves” was not exactly slinging it all over the field but he did exactly what was asked of him. Bridgewater completed 60% or more of his attempted passes in every start and 70% or more in three of the five games. He threw nine TD passes compared to just two interceptions fewer than 30 passes just once.
He will transition from one very elite pass-catching back to another, and this will not hurt his efficiency. He has three legit wide receiving threats, a young TE who is going into his third season, and a new offensive coordinator who just helped produce one of the greatest college offenses ever in Joe Brady. Bridgewater should return a solid value a steady, late-round option in 1 QB formats and a great later option in SF.
It is almost hard not to project CMC for a historic season again with a quarterback who does not throw deep very often and an offensive coordinator who just had a running back put up historic receiving numbers in a National Title season. There is only one real addition of consequence as we look right now and he is a deep threat. It seems like even with regression, the season still lines up for a very LARGE amount of work.
We talked briefly about Moore above but it really was an odd season for him.
Since 1994, 320 receivers have had…
>1000 yards
>120 targets
>80 receptions…in a season.
32 of the 320 had a season with a below 3% TD rate.
DJ Moore and Robert Woods (2019) are 2 of the 32.
— David Willsey (@willson8tor) June 27, 2020
There was some historically bad luck in the TD scoring department for Moore but we should see a regression in 2020 to some extent. However, it may just result in more efficient production (TD rate) and not greater numbers (total). He has not been a large threat to score in either season so far (six TDs/217 targets/2.7% TD rate). I have Moore projected for a slight drop in volume with the arrival of Robby Anderson. Anderson and Curtis Samuel will provide some very useful weeks but if one of these three is going to have a chance at being a top-end fantasy piece, it is Moore.
Ian Thomas will step into the starting tight end role and many expect a breakout season for the third-year player. This is a possibility but I do not have it projected as such. Thomas is going to be touchdown-dependent more than volume-dependent. Both are not exactly going to be easy for the Panthers TE. He has McCaffrey, Moore, Samuel, and Anderson to compete with and the passing TD upside in this offense was next to nothing last season. We could absolutely see a major increase in the efficiency and production with the new offense but this does not mean that Thomas will be a major beneficiary. He is definitely worth a flier late in drafts but the expectation should not exactly be high.
DJ Moore, WR
There is a lot of excitement about Moore in 2020. Coming off a 135-target season with nearly 1,200 yards (as mentioned above), a new offensive coordinator, a new quarterback, and another year of growth as a player are all very good reasons to get excited.
You can see that he is a top seven wide receiver in DLF ADP but if you are looking for value returned this season, you may want to sell Moore for a lower-ranked WR and another piece. He has very high expectations (consensus WR7 in PPR) and may not be able to live up to them in 2020.
For the last two seasons, Samuel has had a greater average target distance than Moore and it has really just been Samuel to compete with at WR…
- 2018 – Moore 9.1 ATD/ Samuel 12.4 ATD
- 2019 – Moore 11.3 ATD/ Samuel 14.4 ATD
Joe Brady is coming from LSU where he had a trio of WRs who had fantastic seasons in the cases of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall Jr who had a great season for the third option at the position. So great, in fact, that his 13 TDs would have led all other SEC teams with the exception of Alabama. With the addition of Anderson, the Panthers have a talented trio as well.
To think that Bridgewater can utilize three WRs, McCaffrey, and a TE to the point of fantasy relevance is a bit optimistic for me but he will spread the ball around and utilize his weapons a bit better than the quarterbacks in 2019 after Newton. Targets are earned and Moore has certainly earned them but a veteran quarterback is going to spread the ball around more than a young one.
Last season, Moore, McCaffrey, and Samuel all received more than 100 targets and Greg Olsen was over 80 but after that, no Panthers’ receiver saw more than 58 targets and just two saw more than 15. Just for some context, Carolina had the second-most pass attempts in 2019. There were quite a few negative game scripts as Carolina started the season with a 4-2 record but finished with just one more victory.
You just may be able to find some similar or better upside than Moore for a lower cost or as a return plus a piece if you are looking to capitalize on the hype.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has a lot of new pieces in 2020. Last season we saw a new staff come in and while there was a solid amount of fantasy success, real life was a bit different. Jameis Winston led the league in interceptions, there was little to no running game, and the athletic tight end who was supposed to break out fell far short of expectation. All three of these areas received attention in the off-season with the signings of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, and the drafting of Ke’Shawn Vaughn. We will get to all of that.
One area where the Buccaneers did not underperform was at the wide receiver position. Tampa had two fantastic options at the position, regardless of format. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both played fewer than 14 games in 2029 but were still able to both produce top-15 seasons in PPR and top-eight seasons in standard-scoring leagues. I have them projected in that same range for 2020.
Tom Brady is a long way from home it would seem he could not really have asked for a much better offensive situation – two very talented wideouts, talented tight ends, and a coach that loves to chuck it all over the field. Brady has also welcomed his favorite target through the years in Gronkowski. The season is looking like a good opportunity for a bounce back from a year in which Brady posted his third-fewest TDs, and third-lowest completion percentage in a season with more than one game played.
The running back position is going to be the most interesting. Tampa Bay has their 2018 second-round pick Ronald Jones, their third-round pick Ke’Shawn Vaughn, UDFA Dare Ogunbowale, and recent signee LeSean McCoy. McCoy, who was a healthy scratch a few times in 2019, is going to be a depth piece but could be a factor early. Ogunbowale will play on some third downs. Jones and Vaughn are the interesting ones to consider. We will look more at the whole situation in a bit.
Wide receiver, as mentioned above, is the only spot that did not disappoint in 2019. Both WRs ranked in the top-six for receivers with 100 or more targets in terms of percentage of their targets that had a positive result (TDs and first downs) and Godwin led all 100+ target receivers.
The pair will likely lose a bit of their weekly ceiling in 2020 because Tom Brady is not going to throw caution to the wind like Winston for 60 minutes but they should both be very reliable fantasy WR1s or WR2s at worst. They both could be weekly locks for double-digit points. With Winston, the volatility week to week was greater than we should see in 2020 with Brady. Mike Evans had three games with fewer than six targets and nine games with four or fewer receptions. Chris Godwin needed ultra-efficiency to reach the heights he achieved. We can expect some regression for both in 2020- some more efficient production for Evans but a decrease in efficiency for Godwin.
Tampa Bay actually has three quality options at the TE position. Cameron Brate has always been an efficient scoring option. OJ Howard may have had a down season but the talent and athleticism is there. Injury has been a concern in the past but we have seen the ceiling a few times and it is high. Gronkowski is Gronkowski. What that means at his age and this point in his career remains to be seen but the reports out of Bucs camp have been positive.
One observation from Bucs practice is that Gronk didn’t waste a minute. During early periods he stood on the hash and caught passes from the QBs as they went through footwork drills. During to a down period for him he worked alone on the side on his get off & hand placement.
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) August 13, 2020
The last time Brady had multiple quality tight end options to throw to was 2016. Martellus Bennett was a member of the Patriots and although Gronkowski was only active for eight games, they both had weeks when both active.
2016 16-game pace while on field together
- Gronkowski – 50 receptions, 76 targets, 1,080 yards, 6 TDs (194 PPR Points)
- Bennett – 66 receptions, 88 targets, 796 yards, 6.4 TDs (181.6 PPR Points)
Obviously, with the rest of the receiving options on the team, this would be a difficult ask of one of the Buccaneers TEs, let alone two. It just shows us that recently Brady was able to utilize two quality options at the position that gives us the most trouble in fantasy.
The Running Backs
Who will it be in 2020? Jones and Vaughn are two names who bring a lot of disagreement out of people.
Some are completely over the Ronald Jones experiment. Some are holding strong. There was a good deal of hype surrounding Vaughn following the draft. Everyone loved the landing spot with Bruce Arians’ history of producing high-level fantasy RB production from his offenses. The hype has since cooled a bit as more reports of Jones making strides in the offense and stepping up his pass-catching game with the help from Brady (take the report for what off-season reports are worth).
Jones was very efficient on the receiving work he garnered (31 receptions on 40 targets) last year with a 10.0 yard per reception average – a huge improvement from 2018’s 4.7 yards per reception. I have Jones projected to lead the team in touches at the RB position.
Here were my post-draft thoughts on Vaughn.
2020 Running Back Draft Thread (7/16)
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
7th RB taken/ Projected 6th RB (mid 3rd)
Round 3: 76th pick to the TB Bucs
Prospect Grade: B
Chance For Success: 58.16%
Risk Rating: 3 (0-5)
Capital: ✔-
Landing Spot: ✔
Size: ✔-
BMI: ✔
Speed: ✔-
Age: ✖… pic.twitter.com/mzJAbfp09j— David Willsey (@willson8tor) May 17, 2020
Vaughn was largely expected to be a more versatile option than Jones but with the recent signing of McCoy, there is some doubt about Vaughn’s readiness at the pro level. We have seen Jones and know for the most part, what he is. He can improve in the passing game but we have a good baseline to go off of. With the off-season being what it is and there being no preseason games to watch, we have to kind of read the tea leaves. The signing of an aging vet says more to me about the rookie’s growth – or lack thereof. McCoy is definitely not the Shady of old but he could still provide early-season stability from the backup RB while Vaughn learns.
There is a wild card. We all know how much Tom Brady loved James White in New England. It is interesting to note that Ogunbowale came from the same school as White and has already shown to be the most trusted third-down option for Arians. If there are late-game situations where a come back is needed, Ogunbowale could factor in heavily but this is all speculation. My projections do have Ogunbowale leading the RBs in targets though, regardless.
Thank you for reading part four of 16 projection articles. Stay tuned for more and follow me on Twitter (@willson8tor).
