2020 NFL Projections: Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants
In this series, we will be covering each team’s projections for the upcoming 2020 season. We will look at each position and briefly break them down then dive deeper into one situation that’s a bit more interesting to look at. Follow along as we go through all 32 teams, two at a time.
READ: Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams | Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers | New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I hope you enjoy this series and find it helpful and informative. Here we go!
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott and the rest of the Dallas Cowboys had a fantastic 2019 season under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
Dallas had two great receiving options in Amari Cooper (79 catches on 119 targets, 1,189 yards, 8 TDs) and Michael Gallup (66/113, 1,107 yards, 6 TDs). They also had another wide receiver and tight end who posted some usable weeks in Randall Cobb (55/83, 828 yards, 3 TDs) and Jason Witten (63/83, 529 yards, 4 TDs).
Ezekiel Elliott (301 rushing attempts, 1,357 yards, 12 TDs and 54/71, 420 yards receiving, 2 TDs), was one of the safest, steadiest running backs in the game along with an effective backup in Tony Pollard (86 attempts, 455 yards rushing, 2 TDs and 15/20, 107 yards receiving, 1 TD).
They were all brought together by a quarterback (Prescott) who posted career highs in completions, attempts, yards passing, TDs passing, yards per attempt, and yards per completion while being sacked a career-low 23 times.
That is right where we will start. Prescott completed just 32 more passes in 2019 than 2018 but threw for more than 1,000 yards and eight more TDs. The rushing numbers took a hit but were more than made up for by the improvement in passing work.
The above projections have Prescott taking another step forward in 2020 under Moore and new head coach Mike McCarthy. Prescott has a new receiver to throw to and a more athletic starting tight end than 2019. He will have solid rushing work and multiple quality options including the running back. The Dallas O-Line may not be as good as it was when Prescott first took the field but it is still very good and Elliott is one of the better pass-blocking RBs in the league. Prescott is projected as my QB3 and one of the safer options to finish inside the top-five without injury playing in.
Is Elliott the safest running back near the top as well? The answer to that question is a very strong yes. First, let us start with his contract. Elliott signed a six-year, $90 million deal and is set to make $19.8 million in 2020. He is going to touch the ball. He benefits from the same offensive line that helps Prescott be one of the safer options at quarterback.
Elliott has been healthy his entire career. That certainly does not mean the chance of injury is zero but nice to know he has not been impacted by anything serious. His receiving may not be among the tip-top in the league, but very solid none the less. He is a workhorse who is rarely off the field and touches the ball more than 20 times a game.
The wide receivers are going to eat in 2020 but there is some conversation to be had about who is the number two pass catcher on the team.
Amari Cooper will be a bit up and down as he has been but in the end, you will have a great producer at the receiver position. The conversation starts here though. Many had a bit of an overreaction to the drafting of CeeDee Lamb and counted Michael Gallup out already in his third year when he has shown to be able to produce in the Cowboys’ offense. Gallup was actually on a slightly better pace to Cooper in 2019.
Now with a rookie and the off-season being what it is, people want to say fade Gallup… Do not fade Michael Gallup! Lamb will be good but it will take time. Gallup may have some issues with drops, but the man produces and actually keeps some elite company.
Wide receivers since 1994 with…
- >5% TD Rate
- >19.0 Points Per Game in PPR/PP1D Formats
- <60.0% Catch Rate
- <=23 Years Old
That is an impressive list to be a part of.
Lamb, as we said above, will take some time but there is plenty of opportunity for both, he and Gallup, to have success. Dallas threw the ball to the tight end position 126 times in 2019 and threw to Randall Cobb, now in Houston, 83 times. Even if Blake Jarwin (who we will talk more about next) earns 80+ targets, that leaves 120+ more targets to disperse. Dallas is not deep at the receiver position or tight end and their first-round pick, even with a shortened off-season, 80+ targets for Lamb is well within the realm of possibilities.
Blake Jarwin, TE
Jarwin looked like he was going to be the starter last season until future Hall Of Famer, Jason Witten, decided to come back for one final go in Dallas. You can see in his DLF ADP, some excitement built but was quickly snuffed out following the Witten addition last season.
Now we know that he is the starter as we approach the season’s first games. As we discussed above, Dallas threw the ball over 120 times to the tight end last season.
- Witten – 83 targets
- Jarwin – 41 targets
- Dalton Shultz – 2 targets
They caught 95 of the 126 targets for a 75.4% catch rate. The difference in efficiency though is where Jarwin stands out. Witten produced 27 first downs on his 83 targets. Jarwin produced 17 on his 41 targets. That is a difference of 9% in first down rate (41.5% to 32.5%). The third-year tight end averaged 11.8 yards per reception and 8.9 yards per target as compared to Witten’s 8.4 yards per reception and 6.4 yards per target. One could assume that maybe Jarwin was able to slip out unnoticed and catch some wide-open balls, which he did, but Jarwin is absolutely a more versatile option in the passing game than Witten was just based on the difference in athleticism at this point in their careers.
Jarwin has scored three TDs each of the last two seasons and four of them have come from 19 yards or more away with two of 39 or more. Witten has two such scores in his entire career. In 2019, Jarwin ranked 14th among tight ends with 35 targets (39 total) in points per target (standard) while Witten ranked 36th. In PPR, 14th/ 30th. PPR & PP1D, 14th/ 34th.
He was more effective in each format. Even if Jarwin were to receive 60 targets, he will likely produce what Witten did with 83.
New York Giants
The New York Giants have assembled a pretty darn good group of skill position players – three solid receivers, a great tight end, and one of the best running backs in the league. In 2019, having them all on the field at the same time was a rare occurrence.
Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones still produced some very solid fantasy numbers in spite of all the players missing games. Saquon Barkley had a down year with injury affecting his performance but once healthy, was the same guy who captured our eyes in 2018. Evan Engram was having a fantastic start before missing half the season with an injury. All three top wide receivers missed time. They even lost the backup tight end and running back. Yet the Giants still produced fantasy relevance and have people excited in 2020.
Above is how Jones distributed his attempts to the top four options in the Giants passing game outside of Barkley. Three of the top four receiving options posted over a 20% target share, likewise with percentage of passing yards. These four also scored most of the passing TDs Jones threw (15 of 24, 62.5%). Oddly, his lowest completion percentage was when he tried connecting with Engram despite Engram having the lowest yard per target value of the group.
In 2020, I have the same group of guys getting the majority of the production from Jones and if they can stay healthy, that would be very good for Jones who also will provide a somewhat safe rushing floor. His efficiency in the passing game will likely level out but the increase in volume should account for that.
Last season, Jones posted a 5.2% TD rate. In 2020, he is projected for a 4.7% TD rate. If he were to post the same 5.2% rate with the projected increase in volume, the Giants QB would throw 28.6 TDs. That is not a huge increase but we still should expect a little regression. Check out more about Jones and others in my DLF series titled “We All Need Someone To Lean On.”
Saquon Barkley is going to be Saquon Barkley, assuming health, in 2020. He is one of the safest bets at any position to be a top-three option. There really is not a lot to discuss about him in fantasy. He is #GOOD…
We saw the top receiving option break down above and my 2020 projections have the numbers being similar from the top target to the bottom but with Darius Slayton taking over the yardage and TD lead while Sterling Shepard maintains the team’s lead in targets. There is a path for all three to be top-24 receiving options but the top-12 ceiling for any of them without an injury or two to the others is very minimal.
There are some that are big believers in Jones and Slayton as a connection following their solid run in 2019. If you believe Slayton has top-12 upside in 2020, capitalize on it if possible. The rookie was actually the third most efficient of the group of wideouts. The Shepard fade may just be too hard with most projecting him to lead the team in targets and his ADP has now dived down below Slayton’s as we see with the DLF ADP Comparison Tool. Again, more in my series from earlier this off-season.
The Tight Ends
Evan Engram and Kaden Smith are interesting ones to look into.
Looking at some per target numbers for the next @DLFootball projections piece
Some interesting findings
Tight ends- >=35 targets in 2019
* In PPR and PPR/PP1D
1. E Engram
2. K Smith
In standard
1. J Cook
2. E Engram
3. R Griffin
4. K SmithStay healthy Evan!
* Zach Ertz &… pic.twitter.com/biXkg82xGt
— David Willsey (@willson8tor) August 20, 2020
In 2019, they were the number one and number two ranked TEs in terms of per-target production. This bodes well for the position overall with Jones. It shows that he can effectively utilize the weapons he has instead of needing an elite option at the tight end position. Having an elite option at the position will not hurt though and Engram was on a career-high pace last season. Smith produced at a similar pace last year.
Engram was looking at 5.5 receptions and 8.5 targets per game (16-game pace of 88 receptions and 136 targets) before knee and foot injuries cut his season short. He was more heavily used if you account for the beginning of the season with Eli Manning under center but still garnered over an 18% target and yardage share.
If Engram can stay on the field for 16 games, we could see a potential top-three season from him. He projects as a top-ten option for me but again if healthy, top-three is in the cards. If Engram were to go down, Smith should provide a solid streaming option or potentially a little more given the production we have already seen.
Thank you for reading part five of 16 projection articles. Stay tuned for more and follow me on Twitter (@willson8tor).
