Flash Forward: 2020 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft, Part One
It is said every single year around this time. “Just wait until next year’s rookie class.” This time, we really mean it though! After many talented running backs produced breakout freshmen campaigns, the class of 2020 quickly became known as one with strong runners and questions at other positions. That changed last season with many wide receivers establishing themselves as top prospects, along with a few quarterbacks. Altogether, this is now gaining steam as one of the top rookie classes in years.
With the 2019 NFL Draft now in the books, it’s time to take an early look at the potential class of 2020. I’ve found that a “hit rate” of around 50% has become the norm in these early versions of Flash Forward mock drafts. That is caused by both disappointing performances as well as players returning to school rather than declaring for the NFL Draft. Regardless, projecting and studying the potential 2020 draft class can be a rewarding exercise for both dynasty and devy players alike.
Before we get to the picks, let’s take a quick glance at the overall strength of each position.
Quarterback
Oregon’s Justin Herbert surprisingly opted to return to school for the 2019 season rather than enter the NFL Draft. His decision had a major impact on the quarterback classes, both this year and next. His absence made the current class subpar and vaulted 2020 to one of the most intriguing in years. Along with Herbert, SEC signal callers Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm have the potential to crack the top five overall in the NFL Draft and will be in the same range in superflex rookie drafts. Former Georgia quarterback Jacob Eason will make his debut for Washington this season and could make the leap if he plays well. Sleepers include Utah State’s Jordan Love and Houston’s D’Eriq King.
Running Back
I mentioned the incredibly strong start that many of these running backs had as true freshmen, placing them on the dynasty map. Not all were able to keep that high level of play going into the 2018 season. Stephen Carr of USC and Tennesee’s Ty Chandler lost value since their inaugural college season. Even so, the talent at running back is plentiful and could ultimately be similar to the 2017 class that brought us numerous starters and elite fantasy assets.
Wide Receiver
Once written off as yet another poor wideout class, 2020 now appears to be what we thought the 2019 crop might bring us as dynasty team owners. There are several elite prospects at the position that will surely be first-round rookie draft picks, and many candidates fill out the depth of the later rounds. The class became even stronger when Tyler Johnson, Collin Johnson and Bryan Edwards opted to return to school. Each of these pass catchers will vie for a spot among the top twelve when rookie drafts come around next year.
Tight End
If there is a weakness in this overall class, it comes at the tight end position. Missouri’s Albert Okwuegbunam spurned the league for another year on campus and is widely considered the top option at the position. Other names to keep in mind are Grant Calcaterra (Oklahoma), Hunter Bryant (Washington) and Colby Parkinson (Stanford).
Round One:
1.01 D’Andre Swift, RB Georgia
5’9”, 215 pounds
It should be no surprise to see an elite running back prospect hailing from Georgia, the school that recently produced Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb, among many other talents. Swift joined the Bulldogs in 2017, and even in a crowded backfield headlined by Chubb and Sony Michel he earned significant playing time. He managed over 600 rushing yards as a freshman, leading into his sophomore season. With both of those players off to the NFL, he shared duties with Elijah Holyfield, amassing over 1,000 rushing yards and ten scores last year. In 2019, he will again be faced with a pair of five-star backs in Zamir White and James Cook, but Holyfield left over 42% of the team’s rush yards and 37% of the rushing touchdowns vacant.
An impressive all-around back, his speed and receiving skills are particular strengths. That might be what led Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller to recently label Swift as the best third-down back in the 2020 class.
1.02 Travis Etienne, RB Clemson
5’10”, 200 pounds
Perhaps the most explosive playmaker in college football, I dare you to watch a Clemson game without jumping off the couch in excitement when Etienne breaks free from a near tackle, something he did 52 times last season, according to Pro Football Focus. While he’s often viewed as a speedy, home run threat, he plays with a toughness and strength to his game that makes him an all-around back and top NFL Draft prospect. He uses both speed and power to dominate defenders. Again from PFF, he gained ten or more yards on 40 of his 204 carries, representing 22% of his runs. He averaged 8.1 yards per carry last season, second only to new Rams back Darrell Henderson.
Entering the 2019 season, Etienne is considered the RB1 by draftniks like Matt Miller, Dane Brugler, Todd McShay and others. After splitting carries evenly with Tavian Feaster during his freshman season, he took control as a sophomore, running for 1,658 yards and leading the entire country in rushing touchdowns with 24. Feaster was again expected to share the Tigers’ backfield, but he has now entered the transfer portal, meaning Etienne will see all the touches he can handle as Clemson plays for another national title.
1.03 Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
6’1”, 192 pounds
If drafting rookie receivers is your bag, Alabama’s Jeudy will be a strong contender for the top overall pick in dynasty rookie drafts. In fact, if it were not for the stacked quarterback class in 2020, he could even be considered in the top three of the NFL Draft. While he doesn’t quite have the size that we typically like from alpha wideouts, he has drawn comparisons to the most dominant receivers of the past decade, including Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones. There are really no holes in his game. With strong hands, elite route running and above average athleticism, he’s a near lock to be the first receiver drafted in 2020, and currently sits atop the draft board for both Mel Kiper and Matt Miller.
After a relatively quiet freshman season (14/264/2), Jeudy took over for the Crimson Tide, more than picking up where Calvin Ridley left off. As a sophomore, he caught 68 passes for over 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns on his way to winning the Biletnikoff Trophy as the nation’s top receiver. He led the SEC with 570 yards on deep pass plays, per PFF, and his 13.7 yards per target were the best in the nation. A versatile receiver, lining up 60% of the time in the slot last season, he’s been training with Raiders receiver Antonio Brown this off-season.
1.04 Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin
5’11”, 221 pounds
Arriving on Wisconsin’s campus in the off-season of 2017 as a three-star recruit, a redshirt season appeared likely for Taylor. His spring practices changed that. He was named the team’s starter after a few weeks and he hasn’t looked back. He’s averaging over 300 carries for more than 2,000 yards and 14.5 touchdowns per season as a Badger. That is the stat line of a true workhorse. His 307 carries for 2,194 yards easily led the nation last season and was good enough to earn him the top grade among all running backs from PFF. He also led the nation in market share, accounting for just shy of 40% of Wisconsin’s total yards, per Devy Watch.
While he possesses strength and vision, it’s his breakaway speed that surprises people. In fact, the former New Jersey state track champion suited up for the Badgers’ track and field team this spring. The 2018 Doak Walker Award winner does show a weakness in the passing game, where he’s hauled in only eight balls in each of the past two seasons.
1.05 Laviska Shenault, WR Colorado
6’2”, 220 pounds
Having entered Colorado as a three-star recruit, little fanfare greeted this wideout following his freshman season, which resulted in seven catches for 168 yards. When quarterback Steven Montez talked him up last spring, few took notice. That changed when the season began. Shenault and the Buffs promptly put up video game numbers. In Colorado’s first five games of the year, he totaled over 700 receiving yards and six scores. Oh, he also ran the ball for another four touchdowns during that span. His versatility made an impression. He is now projected as a lock to be drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
He missed three games late in the season last year, slowed by turf toe. The injury ultimately required surgery, keeping him out of 2019 spring practices. Despite this, Shenault finished his sophomore campaign with 86 receptions for 1,011 yards and 11 total touchdowns. Even playing in only nine games, he led the Pac-12 in catches. His combination of ball skills, desirable size and breakaway speed should have NFL teams and dynasty team owners alike chasing him next spring.
1.06 CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
6’2”, 189 pounds
Former four-star recruit Lamb has made the most out of his time with the Sooners so far. He should be NFL-ready after catching passes from Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray the past two seasons. He could be in for a major change in 2019, though: former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts, known more for his running ability than his crisp passes, takes over the starting gig. The good news: Marquise Brown is also off to the NFL, leaving Lamb as the man for Oklahoma.
He ranks fourteenth on the early big boards for both Kiper and Miller, and he’s clearly in the first-round mix. After a solid freshman season of 46/807/7, Lamb increased those numbers catching 65 passes for 1,158 yards and 11 scores in 2018. His 13.5 yards per target ranked second in the country. A versatile and tough receiver, he could stand to improve and refine his route running in what is likely his final college season.
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