2025 NFL Draft: What We Expect from Day One
The NFL Draft is finally here. We’ve been through the craziest part of the off-season – players moving spots in free agency, opening up landing spots for the incoming rookie class; prospects’ values moving around even without playing a single snap of actual football; and the NFL rumour mill swirling.
But with all that in the rearview mirror, we’ve hit the part where it actually becomes reality. The prospects we’ve been talking about for months (or even for years!) are about to find their homes in the NFL and we’ll be able to do all the arguments again as we debate which landing spot is the best, which player has been overdrafted, and become furious that your bonafide day three sleeper was drafted in the early second and is suddenly getting everyone’s attention.
So with that in mind, let’s get primed for the NFL Draft from a dynasty perspective and take a look at what we expect to see on day one.
Quarterback
One of the biggest debates of the 2025 NFL Draft is how many quarterbacks we see in round one. This is definitely a weaker class than we’re used to, although not quite as bad as the 2022 class where all prospects went way later than anticipated. However, there’s a chance that we only see one QB go in round one.
Cam Ward is locked in at first overall to the Titans. We started the draft process debating whether or not Tennessee would look towards a signal caller early, with arguments as to who the top quarterback even was between Ward and Shedeur Sanders. At this point, the argument is completely clear. Ward will head to Tennessee as the day one starter at first overall, which will immediately make the 1.01 up for debate in dynasty rookie drafts. The landing spot isn’t incredible, but with recent investment in the offensive line, Calvin Ridley as your WR1, two nice RBs, and a developing Chigoziem Okonkwo, it could be much worse for Ward.
The real conversation starts as we try and figure out who’s going to be the second QB off the board. At the beginning of the pre-draft process, this was incredibly easy. Sanders was seen as a consensus top-five pick, with some people clamouring for him to go first overall. At this point, that consensus is nowhere near as clear. Sanders is still being mocked as the QB2 of the class, but most frequently at nine overall to the Saints. However, the range of outcomes for Sanders is incredibly wide – some mock drafts still have him going at third overall to the Giants, some have him falling out of the first round entirely. At this point nothing would surprise me, but I would expect Sanders to go round one at some point.
The other two QBs who have a good chance of being taken on Thursday night are Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe. Like Sanders, Dart is being mocked anywhere between ninth overall to the middle of the second round. He could go as the QB2 off the board, but it would be more likely to see his ceiling as 21 overall to the Steelers, or to a QB-needy team trading back into the end of the first round. Milroe was a surprise invite to Wisconsin to attend the draft in person, which may hint that his draft stock is being seen much higher by the NFL than by the analysts or fantasy communities. His elite physical tools would make it unsurprising if a team decided to take the high-risk gamble on him, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see him fall out of the first round.
There’s also a chance that an NFL team falls for Louisville’s Tyler Shough at the back of round one, as some analysts seem to, but it would be incredibly surprising. Shough’s consensus mock draft spot is deep in the 70s (just like Shough himself), but it only takes one team. One dumb, dumb team.
With this class, anything seems possible. It could be one QB on day one of the draft, it could be four. All we know is it’ll have huge ramifications for your rookie drafts.
Quarterbacks to watch in the first round:
- Cam Ward
- Shedeur Sanders
- Jaxson Dart
- Jalen Milroe
Running back
This is seen as a generational running back class. It’s highlighted at the top with an exceptional player in Ashton Jeanty, but the depth is the area where this class really shines. That could mean that teams are less likely to take a back in the first round, but consensus would seem to imply otherwise.
You don’t need me to tell you much about Jeanty. His ceiling is likely the Jaguars at fifth overall (a landing spot which seems to be picking up more steam) and his floor is probably the Bears at ten. I’d be stunned to see him slip past here, but it seems most likely that he goes to the Raiders at six at this point.
The other two backs who we could see on night one are Omarion Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson. It feels like a lock that Hampton will hear his name called, potentially as early as tenth overall if the Bears decide they’re zeroed in on getting their RB1. If not, he likely won’t make it past the Broncos at 20 or the Chargers at 22.
Henderson is a little more difficult to mock. Some analysts see him as the RB2 in the class, some down at RB4. But with his explosive skill set, the Ohio State back could find himself drafted at the back of the first round. It’s been reported that Sean Payton is enamoured with Henderson, but the Commanders and Chiefs are also RB-needy at the very end of the round. Henderson is the least likely out of these three backs, but with hype around him, it seems like there’s a good chance that he sneaks in.
Running backs to watch in the first round:
- Ashton Jeanty
- Omarion Hampton
- TreVeyon Henderson
Wide receivers
We know Travis Hunter is going in round one, but the bigger question with him is if he’s even a wide receiver. The most interesting thing when his name is called to the Browns at two overall (when, not if) is if he’s announced as a receiver, corner, or otherwise.
After Hunter, the top two receivers are likely to be Tetairoa McMillan and Matthew Golden. A few months ago this was clearly McMillan, but Golden’s 4.29 40 at the combine has seen him vault up draft boards, with betting odds now seeming about even between the two as to who is drafted first. With such little clarity after the first four picks, we could see WR1 as early as five to the Jaguars, or all the way down in the teens. Either way, it seems likely that these two are headed off the board on night one.
After that, who knows with this WR class? Luther Burden and Emeka Egbuka are seen as first-round prospects by the majority of the draft community, but the NFL consensus around them seems unclear. Burden’s 2023 tape should be enough to see him going in the first round on its own, but concerns around his 2024 performance could see him fall out of the first entirely. Egbuka is seen as a high-floor, low-ish ceiling prospect. His floor is a day one WR2, but the fact he doesn’t have WR1 ceiling could mean he drops into the second round. I would anticipate both in round one, but consensus is unclear.
One name I’d pay attention to after this top five would be Iowa State’s Jayden Higgins. He’s been a real riser in the pre-draft process, with teams falling for his movement ability combined with his elite, alpha size. His combine was incredibly impressive at 6’4, 214 lbs, and it wouldn’t be surprise to see a team decide to select him from the mid-20s to the back of the round.
Wide receivers to watch in the first round:
- Travis Hunter
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Matthew Golden
- Luther Burden
- Emeka Egbuka
- Jayden Higgins
Tight end
This is probably the position that we have the most certainty around, but there’s one name who could sneak their way in.
Tyler Warren is the consensus TE1 (although not my TE1 for fantasy, controversial I know). He’s seen as a top ten prospect in the class and almost every single mock draft has him going to the Jets at seventh overall. His ceiling could be as high as the fifth pick if the Jags decide they see him as the best available player, but even if the Jets then decide to go for a tackle, he won’t make it past the mid teens.
Colston Loveland is also seen as an elite prospect, but recent rumour mills have been reporting that some teams have him over Warren, and that we should anticipate him going much higher than currently mocked. However, there have also been some injury concerns niggling with him, which could lead to a draft day slide. I’d love that for my Rams at 26, but it seems like Loveland will go somewhere between the Colts at 14 and the Chargers at 22.
The other name to watch is LSU’s Mason Taylor, who has settled in as the consensus TE3 in the class. A few mocks have started to have him appearing at the end of the first round. It would be unlikely, but with tight end needy teams like the Rams, Chiefs, or even Eagles if they trade Dallas Goedert as is rumoured, he could be a name to keep an eye on at the end of day one.
Quarterbacks to watch in the first round:
- Tyler Warren
- Colston Loveland
- Mason Taylor
You can hear more from Lewis on his YouTube channel 'Fantasy Pancake' https://youtube.com/@fantasypancake?si=U7BLlUCqY38dTsEv
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