Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Jordan Love and Jordan Addison
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
I’m well aware that the sentiment permeating the minds of many a dynasty fantasy footballer is even more heightened in the NFL. Running backs don’t matter! I don’t fully agree, and while that could probably be a data-driven argument in its own right, I believe we saw qualitatively what players like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs meant to their new teams last season.
I mention this because the Las Vegas Raiders have emerged as perhaps the frontrunner to land Boise State ball carrier Ashton Jeanty. With Pete Carroll as the head coach, it’s perhaps unsurprising, given his utilization (and career revitalization) of Marshawn Lynch. But General Manager John Spytek threw gasoline on the fire with his statement this past week that valuing the running back position is in his “core.” Already the likely 1.01 in just about any rookie draft format, a selection as the sixth pick in the 2025 NFL Draft could see him continue an ascent that already has him selected as the 11th overall pick (on average) in 1QB startup drafts.
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
A Love-ly Deal
In a 10-team, superflex, TE-premium PPR league, which side do you prefer for a team looking to contend in 2026 – Jordan Love, or Trevor Lawrence and two mid-second-round picks?
I’ll get back to my thoughts on the DLF Trade Analyzer’s output in just a moment. Spoiler alert – I don’t agree. But first, let’s begin to unpack this with the Packer (un-Packer this? Meh.).
In a recent article about Forgotten Dynasty Veterans (Middle Tier), I opined on the current perception of Love, noting as follows:
“So what went wrong in 2024?
I’m not actually sure anything did. Yes, Love’s touchdowns and completion percentage fell slightly, and he didn’t do nearly as much damage on the ground after getting injured in the season’s first game. On the other side of the coin, he added 0.8 yards to his average attempt, took half as many sacks, and fumbled two fewer times.
The biggest issues for Love were likely twofold. Firstly, as noted above, he suffered early knee and groin injuries that hampered his mobility, potentially leading to the second issue. In 2023, Love was averaging a weekly 34.1 passing attempts per game, a number which dropped dramatically to 28.3 last season. Across his 15 contests played, he effectively lost 2.5 entire games as compared to his prior season’s pace.”
If Love stays healthy in 2025, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this trend revert closer to the 2023 season, when Green Bay was three points away from making the NFC Championship game. Yes, Jacobs proved to be a huge free agent signing, but Love has the ability to function as the engine of the offense. And if the Packers actually make good on drafting an early-round receiver, it’s wheels up.
Well, yeah, dude, that’s why his trade analyzer value is 153.1 points higher than Lawrence…
Yes, that’s accurate. But let’s speak to that, given the fact Lawrence still carries an early fourth-round ADP in a superflex setting.
There remains a solid likelihood that the Once and Perhaps (Maybe? I guess?) Future King, Lawrence, is simply an average-at-best talent. Let’s go to the numbers.
Advanced statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference
An optimist would note that Lawrence played with more daring in 2024, with the highest intended air yards per attempt (IAY/PA) of his career by far. Therefore, his mediocre 73.7% on target percentage (OnTgt%) gains some context. But I think we need to take this a step further.
Say what you will about Jacksonville’s personnel and coaching staff, but they did two things that should have greatly enhanced Lawrence’s numbers. Firstly, they drafted big-play receiver Brian Thomas and turned him into an alpha almost immediately. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, despite throwing more deep balls, Lawrence was pressured on a career-low 15.2% of his drop-backs (Prss%). With a cleaner pocket and budding superstar to pass to, you would’ve liked to see Lawrence’s numbers tick up across the board, but that’s not what happened.
Though it’s true his value has slid over the past year, excuses persist. The Jaguars didn’t help this by paying him $200 million in guaranteed money, but such is life in a league where there aren’t enough quality signal callers for each team to have one. New head coach Liam Coen will now be tasked with proving the former first overall pick isn’t a bust.
Now, back to what I said I’d be getting back to, the initial DLF Trade Analyzer valuation.
I understand why this is what it is. Particularly in superflex leagues, owners feel the need to shore up the setting’s most valuable position. And as such, even though he’s viewed as the QB15 (still too high in my opinion), he’s going fairly early.
While I acknowledge this is a highly subjective take, I view Lawrence as one of those guys “you feel you have to take if he’s available.” You’re not passionate about taking him, and perhaps not even happy about it – he’s the metaphorical unseasoned dish that fills you up but doesn’t taste good. But gosh darn it, the value seems right even though your stomach is doing somersaults. Hence, the DLF Trade Analyzer outputs.
But he’s not a sure thing, and despite the money, a new regime is in the business of winning games, not catering to contracts. As such, another mediocre season from Lawrence may see him on the outside looking in come 2026 and beyond. If Coen can turn him into Baker Mayfield 2.0, then he will, in all likelihood, exceed his current price point, but this remains a quarterback who, through four years, still hasn’t proven himself to be objectively good at NFL football. Going a step further, Love’s 2023 season is far superior to anything Lawrence has done on Sundays.
As to the second round picks? Faithful readers of my work know my take here – it’s a crapshoot in this range. Yes, the superflex and TE-premium format adds some value here, but if Love is going to continue to outplay Lawrence (and/or Lawrence gets benched), these picks have to add utility. It’s entirely possible this will pan out, as in such a format it’s likely that players like Thomas or Ladd McConkey were available in this very range last year – I’m not personally as bullish on this year’s prospects, but here again admit this is subjective.
Given the totality of this, I have to go with Love here. If this were a (crazily enough) lower-valued signal caller like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, or possibly even Mayfield, I likely would do the deal. I’m just not a fan of Lawrence (I learned this the hard way, selecting him with the 1.01 in my longest-running dynasty superflex league), and if this means he’ll flourish on another roster, then so be it.
Addison or Subtraction?
Which side do you prefer for a rebuilding team in a 12-team, superflex, TE-premium PPR league – Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Brown, and 2025 pick 1.08, or Jordan Addison, and 2025 picks 1.05 and 2.08?
I have to be honest. I look at every player in this deal, and all I want to do is throw up the “shrug” emoji. Think about it, there’s a question mark with literally every piece in this deal:
- Even in a superflex and TE-premium format, pick 1.05 seems to be just outside of the running for the premium players (Jeanty, Cam Ward, Tetairoa McMillan, and Omarion Hampton). That is only amplified with pick 1.08. Don’t get me started about pick 2.08’s empty calories.
- Brandon Aiyuk is returning from injury, and it’s entirely possible he won’t be full strength until the 2026 season, when he’ll be 28 years old.
- Jordan Addison has flashed occasional WR1 potential, but through two years has been more capped in the WR2 range, and is behind arguably the best receiver in the league, Justin Jefferson. He’s also a knucklehead off the field.
- Chase Brown appears likely to be more of an RB1a than a true bell-cow, with the rumor mill asserting the Bengals are actively looking for a bigger body to share the load.
Of course, this doesn’t mean the players are devoid of value, but rather that in this particular instance, no player is bulletproof and beauty is clearly in the eye of the beholder. And for me, the greatest amount of glow sits with Aiyuk.
Yes, his career started a bit slowly. But as a more traditional “third-year breakout” receiver, Aiyuk did some honest work in his 2022 and 2023 seasons. 15.2% of weekly outings resulting in top-five finishes is very good, as is being a weekly WR1 nearly a quarter of the time. All told, Aiyuk only bombed a third of the time, which isn’t elite but is certainly palatable given his high ceiling, as well as the crowded depth chart he was forced to fend with.
I recognize it’s disingenuous to compare a veteran Aiyuk to a rookie-year Addison, but 2023 is the only season where we have a direct comparison. As shown above, Addison proved the ability to spike weeks, but more often than not, he was scoring in the teens or worse. Aiyuk had his slower weeks, but never had quite as low a floor as Addison, and in general, he was a bit more consistent.
Unfortunately, Addison was virtually the same player in 2024. He did a little extra on a per-game basis, but to date, has been extremely reliant on scoring the ball. Perhaps time will prove that he’s just a natural touchdown maker, but I believe this contributes to his highs and lows.
Given the totality here, I have to take the Aiyuk side. I’m sensitive that the context is through the lens of a rebuilding squad, but I just don’t see Addison or the picks as being foundational. Even if 2025 is a wash for Aiyuk, it’s not as if he’s over the hill – this is all to say he’s not on any sort of “No Homers Club” list for rebuilding squads.
Brown is the icing on top here. Even if he doesn’t play in 2025 the same way he closed 2024, he’ll still be an asset and likely fantasy starter. As the slight difference in picks 1.05 and 1.08 doesn’t move the needle for me, I’m siding with the DLF Trade Analyzer on this one.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Jordan Love and Jordan Addison - April 22, 2025
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 21, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Malik Nabers and Isiah Pacheco - April 15, 2025
