Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Some Tee Higgins Trades
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
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From Discord…
A Worthy Deal?
Which side do you prefer in a 12-team, superflex, TE-premium PPR league, Tee Higgins and Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy and Chase Brown?
As per usual, let’s begin with the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
This seems about right to me. Rice and Higgins, despite their injury woes, are the two proven assets in the deal. And while Brown and Worthy both had their moments in 2024, the cap on the bottle of anointing oil is perhaps a smidge loosened but nevertheless still affixed.
Diving into a bit more detail, let’s start with the pair of Chiefs receivers.
Yes, it’s an obscenely small sample size, given Rice’s injury. But even with Worthy’s fluky week one (three touches, two touchdowns), Rice was very clearly the focal point of the passing game, with an aggregate 24-288-2 (29 targets) through the season’s first three weeks. Meanwhile Worthy’s production ebbed and flowed, though he appeared to catch fire towards the end of the year with 21 receptions in his final three regular-season contests, followed by an aggregate 19-287-3 in the playoffs. You can call into question the utility of his mammoth Super Bowl given the fact his scores came when Kansas City was down 34-0 and 40-14, respectively, but the fact is he still made the plays.
It’s true Rice is returning from a torn LCL and hamstring tendon that ended his season prematurely, and that’s worrisome for his immediate 2025 viability. But he will still only be 25 before the 2025 season begins, and as such any temporary drop-off is effectively the blink of an eye, given his potential career longevity. Even if there’s an initial curve, I expect Rice to reassert himself as the team’s WR1 sooner rather than later.
To me, more worrisome than Rice’s injury is Worthy’s quirky and incomplete game. Yes, he’s a big play waiting to happen given his speed. But this has also resulted in a number of failed gadget plays, leading to a tight end-esque 10.8 YPR. To expand upon that point, Worthy failed to average 10.0 YPR a whopping nine times on the year – he will need to play more like he did in the playoffs as opposed to his miniscule regular season aDOT of 9.2 yards.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Rice has been the steadier and high-end asset between the two, as shown above. He might lack the speed and theoretical big-play ability of his teammate, but he’s significantly more consistent. This has resulted in only a quarter of his contests falling into the WR4+ range.
As I’m not seeking to play some sort of dynasty ruse, you can clearly see which Chief receiver I prefer. As such, we will need to turn to the pair of Bengals to see if that shifts the direction of the tides.
In year one of the post Joe Mixon era, there was an initial competition between Brown and 2024 import Zack Moss as to who would gain the upper hand. What resulted was a messy backfield amalgam that provided fine aggregate real-world results, but little in the way of fantasy viability for either player. Once Moss was shelved, however, Brown blossomed into a near weekly PPR RB1 and lock for double-digit scoring.
There remains some conjecture as to how Cincinnati will fill out the backfield with Moss not expected back. Veteran and former Bengal Samaje Perine was signed recently following failed stints in Denver and Kansas City. Always a complementary piece despite his larger frame, Perine appears likely to be more a fly in the ointment than a thorn in the side of Brown.
The 2025 NFL Draft stands as the next litmus test for the team’s commitment to Brown. While on the whole this is a poorer offensive class, it is lauded for its running back depth. As shown below there are a number of capable ball carriers entering the league, with projections asserting a number of mid-round selections at the position.
This isn’t to say Brown won’t continue to function as the team’s starter. However the team’s offensive coordinator is already on record stating they need to add a bigger back to the roster. Though Brown acquitted himself well with his final collegiate season, resulting in 355 total touches, it nearly doubled any other seasonal workload during his time at Illinois. So while he’s not small at 5’10” and 211 pounds, pairing him up with a “1b” type could be sensible to best ensure his longevity.
Actions assuredly speak louder than words, and Brown is still the team’s RB1. But actions assuredly speak louder than words, and his teammate Higgins just banked a massive four-year, $115 million contract (though only $40.9 million guaranteed) after getting slapped with the franchise tag for the second year in a row. If we’re rating this based on level of commitment, Brown is currently wearing a promise ring while Higgins was just given a 5-carat rock.
And it makes sense, right? Despite missing a myriad of contests due to injury, Higgins still concluded the year as the PPR WR17. On a weekly basis, he was only bested by teammate Ja’Marr Chase, Rashee Rice (three games), Chris Godwin (seven games) and Puka Nacua. Yes, there were a couple of clunkers in there, but there were also three top-four efforts, and seven weekly top-17 finishes. All told, he really only cost you in week three (first game removed from injury) and week 14. In short, Higgins unlocked a new upside in 2024, and was rewarded thusly.
Yes, he seems to miss a few contests each season, and he hasn’t cleared 1,000 yards since 2022. But he commands targets, and is once again set to function as Joe Burrow’s 1b option in 2025 and beyond. Only 26 years old and continuing to improve, Higgins has resuscitated his dynasty value.
Different strokes for different folks, but I struggle to process this trade. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and perhaps the beholder sees an annual PPR WR1/RB1 pairing in Worthy and Brown. But even with Rice’s injury, both the dynasty floor and ceiling reside with he and Higgins. I would’ve needed to see a high-end pick or asset added onto the youngsters for me to consider it.
More Tee Ball
Which side do you prefer in a 10-team PPR league, Tee Higgins and 2025 pick 3.02 or DeVonta Smith and a 2027 first-round pick?
Once again, this seems about right to me. I have no need to expand further on Higgins as I’ve already done so above. Pick 3.02 is marginal, though the 10-team league format makes it slightly more valuable. For those familiar with my work, I view non-first-round rookie picks in 1QB settings as little more than window dressing.
On the other hand sits Eagles WR2 DeVonta Smith. Like Higgins, Smith was also signed to a new contract and will be with Philly through the 2028 season. And while quarterback Jalen Hurts is more than capable of supporting multiple options in the passing game, teammate and WR1 AJ Brown was also signed to an extension, effectively blocking Smith’s path to stardom. With the offense running through Saquon Barkley and Hurts on the ground (621 carries to 448 passing attempts), Smith’s standing isn’t like that of Higgins, who is behind Chase but is also on an offense with Burrow slinging it 600+ times.
So even with the missed contests, Higgins was still superior to Smith in 2024. The latter missed four games of his own, but as shown above didn’t have Higgins’ ceiling regardless. Settling into the 14-15 weekly PPR point range, Smith is a fine asset – but not one who is going to directly influence fantasy fortunes.
Given this, the question may come down to immediate and future contention. All first-round picks carry value, but the 2027 NFL Draft is over two years away. While we can likely project a player like Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith as an entrant, so much more is unknowable. I’m not averse to kicking cans down the road, but this is a long-term bet.
If you believe that Smith has some untapped potential, and/or that your team is unlikely to be in contention in the immediate future, I understand the allure of that side. The 2027 pick will continue to accrue in value over time, and given that anything can happen on a yearly basis there does exist the potential it could even wind up as an early selection. But if you’re looking for immediate gratification to increase your chances in 2025, I’m taking the upside of Higgins.
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