Dynasty Decision: George Pickens
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
George Pickens, WR PIT
Few players prompt as varying of a range of opinions as George Pickens. He has shown flashes of absolute dominance and superstardom and has also shown that he does not care at all and drifts entirely out of games. This varying range of opinions prompts a great opportunity to dive into his value and decide whether to buy low or sell high.
Previous Performance
As a prospect, Pickens’s talent was evident. However, the off-field red flags were a concern. The Pittsburgh Steelers decided that the gamble was worth it and spent a second-round pick to bring him on board. As a rookie, he carved a role out immediately and was third on the Steelers in targets but was significantly behind Diontae Johnson in target volume. Pickens averaged just under five targets per game and, with that, averaged 9.8 points per game to finish as the WR39 overall. He worked primarily as a boundary receiver, with 66 of his targets being outside the numbers while only 17 were in the center of the field.
In 2023, Johnson missed some time, and it enabled Pickens to see an even bigger share of the targets, seeing 6.2 targets per game. His raw fantasy production increased to 12.3 points per game, although he flashed his big-play potential with four weekly performances of over 20 points.
In 2024, he had an incredibly up-and-down year. He started relatively slowly with Justin Fields under center before showing how dominant he could be once Russell Wilson started at quarterback. He then disappeared down the stretch. He set career lows in yards per target and touchdowns but did have a career-high in yards per route run. The final 11.7 points per game were a disappointing finish, as he didn’t take a step forward after a promising 2023.
Situation and Usage
The Steelers are facing an uncertain off-season. Currently, the only quarterback they have under contract is Skylar Thompson, and his $1.1m minimum contract with no money guaranteed. Their two starting running backs are also scheduled to be free agents. So it’s difficult to predict exactly what situation we find them in next season. However, the expectation is that either Wilson or Fields will be back. With Arthur Smith remaining as offensive coordinator, you can assume the offense will still be a run-heavy offense that thrives on play-action shots deep and outside.
That type of offense pairs perfectly with Pickens and should allow him to have some boom fantasy weeks. However, that offense limits Pickens’s overall ceiling because he will struggle to see significant target volume.
Contract
Heading into the final year of his rookie contract, you would expect extension talk to be rife with the young receiver. However, some continuing off-field concerns mean the Steelers may opt to allow Pickens to “prove it” again in 2025 before extending him. How much he earns on that next contract and its longevity depends more on what he does off the field than on-field performance.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR21 in January ADP and the 56th overall player. The Trade Analyzer has him worth the 1.09 in the 2025 draft or a random 2026 first-round pick and third-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Pickens is a player I have been consistently lower than consensus on since he came out as a prospect, as I’ve been concerned that he would never consistently put it together. Now, he is heading into his fourth season, and that is still the case. I struggle to warrant a player being valued as the WR21 overall when he hasn’t produced a single top-24 season, has an uncertain quarterback situation, and is a pending free agent after this season. The talent is obvious. Pickens could be a top-ten wide receiver in the right situation if he were motivated, but at the moment, it is more theoretical than proven. No matter the situation, I would happily pivot off the Steelers wide receiver for draft picks and take the risk of a rookie. Alternatively, I would happily pivot to Terry McLaurin, Rome Odunze, or Jaylen Waddle, who are all ranked behind Pickens in ADP.
It may make sense to move sooner rather than later on selling Pickens because if Justin Fields gets re-signed as the quarterback for the Steelers, Pickens’ value would plummet. He could also be moved on from the Steelers, as they have consistently done with their troublesome wide receivers in recent years. He still has that allure of youth attached to him, so you should have plenty of suitors coming sniffing for his services.
- Dynasty Decision: George Pickens - February 14, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Jonathan Taylor - February 7, 2025
- Superflex Dynasty Rankings Explained: Rich Cooling - January 31, 2025
