Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week 12

Me, one week ago:

“’Refreshing’ may seem like an odd word choice to describe a 61-year-old curmudgeonly retread coach, albeit one with a Super Bowl ring. But here we are with Broncos head coach Sean Payton, who very refreshingly says one thing… and then actually does that thing.”

My new thinking, this week:

“Chaos isn’t a pit. Chaos is a ladder. Many who try to climb it fail, and never get to try again. The fall breaks them. And some are given a chance to climb but they refuse. They cling to the realm, or the gods, or love. Illusion. Only the ladder is real. The climb is all there is.”

-Petyr “Littlefinger” Baelish

This is all to say you won’t fool me twice, Coach Payton! And as to the larger dynamic in play? It’s week 12, with a mere three weeks of regular season fantasy action remaining. It’s all coming to a head, so you best embrace the chaos because it’s coming soon to a theater near you.

Disclaimer! As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Guidance will continue to take into account a player’s current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he’s performed.

One last note, as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.

With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week 12:

Buy (All Teams / Middle-of-the-Road and Rebuilding Slants)

Drake London, WR ATL

Week 11 Line: 3-61-0

After an underwhelming first month to the season, one in which London could only compile an aggregate 200 yards (albeit with two scores), all of London’s goodwill appeared to vanish with an ADP that dropped over a round. Following a stronger October, it seems like this blip may have represented more of a “goldfish” moment than anything else. Now quietly on pace for an end-of-year 94-1,097-9.3, the third-year veteran is continuing his ascension despite playing for what has turned out to be a fairly underwhelming Atlanta offense.

It’s true his numbers have cooled a bit of late, with the Falcons’ schedule toughening and Kirk Cousins having some scattershot affair. London also was forced from the Dallas game early after compiling a 2-27-1 line prior to injury. Concluding with a catastrophic loss to the Broncos (where he actually led the team in receiving), the favorability vibe could begin to skew back towards “meh” if the dynasty masses aren’t digging too deep into the rationale behind the numbers.

If he falls from his November ADP as the PPR WR12, there could be value to be had. This is especially true if he’s being rostered by a contender who finds him- or herself nonplussed by the lack of recent output. Every league and every owner will differ, but throwing some red meat in the form of veterans who are producing may be enough to get the job done.

Buy (Contenders)

Jauan Jennings, WR SF

Week 11 Line: 10-91-1 (11 targets)

Every season we have players crawling out of the woodwork ready to surprise us in some way, shape, or form, both for the positive and the negative. But if I had to pick a storyline more surprising than any, it might just be Jennings’ current stature as the PPR WR20.

I can understand an initial scoff and/or chuckle, but let’s consider the accompanying facts. Firstly, Jennings has only played in eight 2024 contests – of every other receiver who has played eight games or fewer, only Malik Nabers and Chris Godwin are ahead of him in the PPR hierarchy. Amongst other players with exactly eight contests to their name, he’s outpacing DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Davante Adams, and even his teammate Deebo Samuel.

This, of course, segues well into my next point – based on pre-season expectations, this was looking like the most loaded pass-catching crew in the NFL. We know Brandon Aiyuk was injured, and running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Ricky Pearsall are likely still rounding into form, but Samuel and tight end George Kittle have more or less stayed healthy. Even knowing all this, I still would’ve hesitated to call Jennings a top-50 guy.

Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.

If you look at the data above, two things come immediately into focus. Firstly, Jennings is playing a higher proportion of snaps than any player not named Brock Purdy. Secondly, he’s doing the most with his opportunities with the largest PPR points/snap of the group. Maybe Pearsall begins to carve out a larger share, but Jennings has the look of a player who will continue to factor in hugely for the rest of 2024.

To be clear, I’m anticipating something of a course correction in value given Jennings’ stellar play since his return from injury. But rebuilding squads may see it differently, potentially viewing Jennings as an asset likely to depreciate in value in 2025, if not sooner. Regardless, it’s not an insulting initial offer, and it never hurts to ask when in pursuit of affordable points.

Sell (Rebuilding Teams)

Najee Harris, RB PIT

Week 11 Line: 18-63-0, 4-30-0 (5 targets)

As a volume-reliant plodder, I never really had a problem with Harris the player as he was a known commodity. He effectively personifies the quote by former NFL running back Leroy Hoard, who famously stated “if you need one yard, I’ll get you three yards. If you need five yards, I’ll get you three yards.” And at Harris’ current cost, I’m fine with the cheap volume and the hope he’ll fall forward into the end zone.

As can be discerned from the above, this wasn’t always the case, but once Harris’ value fell, it crashed hard. After monopolizing touches while teammate Jaylen Warren was struggling with injury, it appeared as if a rebound was in the works, but Harris has not lost value again for two months in a row. This has coincided with decreasing efficiency returns while Warren has gotten healthy and regained his explosion.

See 2023, copy, paste.

Harris is still probably a fine flex-level player for the remainder of 2024, and that has utility for contending teams. But rebuilders are likely seeing the writing on the wall, and as such may be projecting out another value drop. I’ve said it before in this space, but Harris represents perhaps the most dangerous type of player for a rebuilding squad – he has enough name brand recognition and does just enough on the field to make you want to hang onto him, but if the bottom falls out these squads will be left holding the bag on a severely depreciating asset.

Buy (All Teams)

Bo Nix, QB DEN

Week 11 Line: 28 for 33, 307-4-0, 2-5-0 rushing

While much of the rookie year focus has been on Jayden Daniels (good reasons) and Caleb Williams (less good reasons), Nix is quietly stating his case for recognition. Now only a half-point per game behind the regressing Daniels and miles ahead of the #1 draft pick Williams, Nix is playing the best football of his young career. To that point, over his past four games he’s completed 72.9% of his passes at a crisp 7.7 YPA, all while tossing nine scores to only one interception. In doing so he hasn’t had to be nearly as reliant on running the ball, with only one touchdown on the ground and one game in double-digit rushing yards, showing he can put up points in multiple ways.

All told, this isn’t surprising. As I said in my off-season AFC Divisional Outlook piece, “If nothing else, Nix enters 2024 as one of the most pro-ready signal callers of all time. The 2023 Heisman finalist attempted a whopping 1,936 passes across five seasons with both Auburn and Oregon, nearly leading the Ducks to the NCAA playoffs. And while it’s a bit trite to say ‘of course he should have improved, he’s a 24-year-old rookie,’ the fact is Nix made major strides throughout his collegiate tenure.

Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Nix’s 2023 stats were just downright silly, with nearly 10.0 YPA to go with a crazy 15:1 TD/INT ratio. Nix also got more efficient with additional volume, showing his baseline numbers were not due solely to volume. The fact is Nix didn’t just check the box, he added three exclamation points in bold, red type.”

Maybe we’re seeing a “ceiling mirage” where a well-rehearsed rookie comes in already near the height of his potential and then never climbs to another level. I’m not personally buying that but even if it were true, it’s helped him achieve a status as the fantasy QB8 on the year. It’s Sean Payton we’re talking about here (please refer to introductory blurb), so it’s entirely possible he coaxes Drew Brees out of retirement and benches Nix. But short of that, we may have the next member of a crop of young stud signal callers who is still relatively attainable at cost.

Priority Waiver Add (All Teams)

Will Dissly, TE LAC

Week 11 Line: 4-80-1 (6 targets)

I love talking about Will Dissly, if only because it allows me to remember one of the funniest memes I’ve ever seen, which states “Will Dissly sounds like the name of the first guy Eminem would battle rap in an 8 Mile video game.” Perfection. Past that, it turns out that when healthy and utilized, the guy can play some ball.

It’s not great shakes at the tight end position this year, so saying “so-and-so is the PPR TE[INSERT NUMBER HERE] on the year” doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot. And with Dissly still well outside of the TE1 range, it means even less. But recently, it’s at least notable that he’s been doing some work, spiking a few weeks here and there coupled with other efforts (outside of week 9) that likely won’t tank your week.

At the tight end position, we chase any and all upside when we can find it. Right now, a modicum of momentum is on Dissly’s side. For 4% of my FAAB, I’m taking a chance to see if there’s signal to the noise.

Priority Drop (All Teams)

Van Jefferson, WR PIT

Week 11 line: 0-0-0 (1 target)

The proud owner of three targets and zero yards over the past two weeks, Jefferson was making a fine case for roster removal on his own. But as shown below, he’s now getting even less of a chance to continue being horrible.

Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.

No, Mike Williams didn’t exactly drape himself in glory with a goose egg of his own, but this is a player who is returning from a 2023 injury and now on his third team in under a year. He’s seeing a higher snap rate, and as such in this zero-sum game both Jefferson and Calvin Austin are seeing their playing time reduced. Say it with me here – the ends of our benches are reserved for players with actual upside! Given the changing tides of the 2024 season, coupled with his mediocre career numbers, Jefferson is devoid of it.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.