Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Troy Franklin and Brian Thomas Jr.
Each week throughout the 2024 NFL season, I’ll cover two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and will generally write about the most prominent performers from that particular week. I’ll discuss how well he’s lived up to expectations at the NFL level and then grade the player in three categories: performance to date, rookie season potential, and long-term upside.
Troy Franklin, WR DEN
Week 7 stats: 5 receptions on 6 targets for 50 yards.
In an underwhelming week seven Thursday Night Football contest, Troy Franklin led the way for the Broncos’ passing attack in a 33-10 win over the Saints. Although he failed to get into the endzone, Franklin led Denver in targets, receptions, and yards after scoring his first touchdown four days earlier in week six. Over the last two weeks, Franklin has seen 54% of his total season snaps, so he’s definitely trending upward as the season moves along after starting the year as a healthy scratch in week one.
Franklin came into the league out of Oregon with many fans waiting to see what he could do in the NFL after leading the PAC-12 in receiving touchdowns in 2022 and 2023. As a member of an Oregon program that has had some serious offensive production, Franklin was able to stand out. According to machronicle.com:
“In his 2023 season with the Ducks, Franklin set several single-season records, with [sic] 1,383 receiving yards, 14 receiving touchdowns, and eight 100-yard receiving games. At Oregon, Franklin set the record for all-time receiving touchdowns— 25, [and] tied for most 100-year receiving games with 11”.
With solid college production below his belt, it was widely believed that Franklin was one of the better receivers in a stacked receiver draft, and he would likely be a second round selection, and at worst a day-two pick.
At the NFL combine, Franklin was a bit of a mixed bag. He ran a 4.41 40-yard dash, good enough for 10th among this year’s receivers, but his 10-yard split was the worst of any of the receivers who ran. He did fine in all of the other testing measurables but came in much lighter than many had hoped, tipping the scales at only 176 pounds while standing 6’2”. His weight, in addition to what many people called one of the worst gauntlet performances in recent memory, caused him to fall in the draft.
Troy Franklin Gauntlet #NFLCombine2024 pic.twitter.com/hiajTj5QeW
— WalkTheMock (@WalkTheMock) March 2, 2024
In the end, The Broncos traded up to select Franklin with the second pick of round four- the 17th receiver drafted. His fall in the NFL draft was mirrored in dynasty leagues as well, as he went from an ADP of 6th overall as WR5 in the February and March mock drafts to eighth overall as WR6 following the combine in April’s mocks and then 23rd overall as WR14 following the NFL draft in May’s ADP. Say what you will about his fall in drafts. I liked the landing spot, as Denver paired him up with his former Oregon quarterback, Bo Nix. There is no way that their familiarity with one another cannot be helpful for their development at the NFL level.
Performance to Date: C+
When Franklin was a healthy scratch to start the year, I thought his career might be over before it even started. Despite the slow start, Franklin has come on as of late and has done rough to currently sit at 22nd among all rookies in fantasy scoring and 10th among rookie receivers. While not enough to win you any match-ups yet as WR92 on the season, a little glimmer of his upside has shone through over the last two weeks.
Rookie Season Potential: B-
If his recent usage trends continue, you can imagine a path to Franklin putting up top-36 numbers over the remainder of the season. With 16 teams (22 including week 14 when Franklin is on bye too) still having their bye week coming up, if Franklin can be a usable WR3 or FLEX play to fill out your starting lineups over four of the next weeks heading into the fantasy playoffs, you probably can’t ask for much more than that- especially if injuries keep piling up at the position league-wide.
Long-Term Upside: C+
There isn’t a long list of wildly successful underweight receivers in the NFL, so I’m holding that against Franklin a bit here. Also, when you look at Denver’s depth chart, talent at the position, and current contracts, there is no way that they do not address the position in free agency or upcoming draft(s). If and when Denver spends money or draft capital on other options in the passing game, you can easily see Franklin becoming more of a complimentary piece rather than a featured part of the offense. Again, this is fine for fantasy- we all need a WR3- but he’ll never be a league-winning asset.
Brian Thomas, Jr., WR JAX
Week 7 stats: 5 receptions on 5 targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown, and 2 carries for 2 rushing yards
Obviously, different leagues have different scoring, but for the most part, Brian Thomas Jr.’s 22.35 points in week seven made him the WR2 for the week. It wasn’t even his best performance of the season- in a season with five double-digit games and three games over 20 points- and we’re only seven weeks into his career.
Did you know that LSU has a pretty good recent track record of pumping out NFL-caliber wide receivers? Despite playing behind fellow NFL receivers Malik Nabers, Trey Palmer, and Kayshon Boutte during all or some of his three years at LSU, it was Thomas who led the nation in receiving touchdowns in 2023. Thomas also had more college touchdowns than sixth overall pick Nabers did, 24-21. Following the season, the 6’3”, 209-pound Thomas had a strong showing at the combine as well, running the second-fastest 40-yard dash, only behind the record-setting Xavier Worthy.
Once the NFL draft rolled around, Thomas was thought to be one of the top receiver prospects in a very talented receiver class, and this proved to be true as he was the fourth receiver taken, as the overall 23rd pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars. This was exactly where the dynasty community had him in rookie mocks, as WR4 and fifth overall. By May, he did get a slight bump down to WR5 after Worthy landed with the Chiefs, but Thomas still went earlier than Worthy in four of ten mocks, so it was close in the eyes of many.
In recent start-up mocks, Thomas has climbed to WR18 after being WR34 at the beginning of the season, and there still seems to be plenty of room for growth. He’s outperforming everyone in his draft class except his LSU teammate Nabers and should be closer to a top-12 dynasty receiver than he is. Personally, I might have him in the six-to-eight range based on what I have seen so far.
Performance to Date: A+
As WR7 overall, and the fifth-highest scoring rookie so far- I don’t see any other grade you can give Thomas at this point. He’s a WR1 and is flirting with top-50 overall in points scored nearly halfway through his rookie season. There isn’t much more to say, the proof is in the numbers.
Rookie Season Potential: A
As Thomas emerges, I suspect opposing teams will be paying him more attention, shifting some of the Jags offense to Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. As the team leader in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, even with a slight shift away from him he should be a steady producer going forward.
Long-Term Upside: A+
Typically, when rookie receivers hit the ground running and come out of their first season as a fantasy WR1 or WR2, it’s pretty sticky for their career, barring significant injuries. As a WR1 through seven career games, even if he regresses a bit in 2024, Thomas should be a safe bet to finish in the top 24, which oftentimes means you’re going to be there for the rest of your career. Aside from Nabers (and maybe Brock Bowers), I don’t think there is anyone from this class I want on my rosters more.
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Rome Odunze and Jonathon Brooks - December 14, 2024
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: AJ Barner and Theo Johnson - December 7, 2024
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Cade Stover and Ja’Tavion Sanders - November 30, 2024
