Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From The Preseason
Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind. This preseason article is completely FREE, but future releases will be part of our DLF Premium subscription. If you’re not already a subscriber, check out our deals to get it for $10, or save 20% by clicking on the image below.
This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.
DYNASTY FIVE
Here are the five dynasty-related stories that have my attention coming off the NFL preseason.
Injured Stars
(Knocks on wood) This preseason wasn’t too bad when it comes to injuries. The majority of players beginning the 2024 season on the injured reserve list do not come as a surprise. The key names include running Nick Chubb, tight end TJ Hockenson, and rookie Jonathon Brooks. The value of this trio of players has been wildly different though. Both Brooks and Hockenson suffered late-season ACL injuries, while Chubb dealt with a nasty leg injury early last season.
With some suggesting Chubb would never play again, his value bottomed out, with his DLF ADP falling all the way to 126 overall and RB41 immediately following the injury. Since that time, Chubb’s value has been slowly but steadily climbing. The prime time to buy Chubb was months ago but as the RB35 and still sitting outside of the top-100 dynasty players, he can still be had at a discount. Chubb did land on the PUP list, meaning he’ll miss at least the first four games, though some reports suggest he’ll be out until midseason.
Hockenson will also miss at least the first four games for the Vikings following his Christmas Even ACL tear. There is hope that Minnesota will have Hock back as early as Week Five. I almost always suggest dynasty managers buy low on injured stars. The problem with Hockenson is that his value never really took a big hit following the injury. That could be because he didn’t miss any fantasy-relevant games, suffering the injury so late in the season. Hockenson never fell outside of the top-ten dynasty tight ends and his current ADP of 85 overall is his lowest in nearly two years. If Hockenson can be back on the field by early October, his ADP will likely bounce right back to the top-60 range, where he spent most of the past year.
Brooks is an unusual case, coming in as a rookie. Brooks did suggest at the February NFL Combine that he’d be ready to start training camp. That seemed ambitious and skepticism about that statement proved understandable as the Texas product not only wasn’t ready, but is now set to miss the first month of action. While he’s already very pricey as a top-50 asset and low-end dynasty RB1, now might be the ideal time to send some trade offers for frustrated managers who expected to see Brooks in Week One.
Of these three players, Brooks is by far my favorite trade target, but also the most expensive. Here are some recent dynasty trades involving Brooks, using our Dynasty Trade Finder…
Rookie RB2s Abound
You might remember that a few months ago, there was little clarity about which player would claim the rookie RB1 crown. Brooks was a favorite, but uncertainty about that injury kept him from being the obvious candidate. Trey Benson and Blake Corum had their fans. Perhaps it could be the lack of a true, Bijan Robinson-type prospect at the top of the draft or just how many backs could be viewed as the potential rookie RB1, but this running back class got labeled as weak pretty early in the pre-draft process.
What it might lack in star power, the class more than makes up for it with the depth. As I peruse projected Week One depth charts, not a single rookie back is expected to start the opener. The good news though is that a whopping seven rookie backs appear to have won their team’s RB2 job, the primary backup, and are sure to see early-season work.
This list includes players expected to serve specific roles as change-of-pace or goal-line backs, but some future starters can also be found hiding on the depth charts. These backs include Benson, Corum, MarShawn Lloyd, Ray Davis, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy, and Braelon Allen.
Benson is in a tier of his own when it comes to this group but each player has impressed enough to earn the early shot at playing time and production for their team and each makes a worthy dynasty stash, which could pay off as early as this season.
Rams Do It Again?
A year ago, the Rams used a Day Three pick on a relatively unknown wide receiver, who quickly became a dynasty darling. Fantasy players spent all off-season trying to identify which rookie receiver could be the next Puka Nacua. Maybe we should have just been focusing on the Rams’ moves the entire time.
In the sixth round this past spring, the Rams selected former Texas wideout Jordan Whittington. While his game has very little in common with Nacua, his story could eventually play out in much the same way. Nacua got off to a fast start thanks to injuries to his teammates and he quickly earned his status as a fantasy and NFL star. Ironically, it was the injury to Nacua that gave Whittington extra work in camp. The Texas product finished the pre-season with 11 receptions on 17 targets, both marks tied for fourth among all wide receivers. Nacua is set to return in time for the Rams opener and the team currently lists veteran Demarcus Robinson as their WR3. That means we shouldn’t expect Whittington to draw 15 targets in Week One, as Nacua did a year ago. We can expect to see him on the field and rapidly gain dynasty value.
McCarthy’s Season Ends Early
After just one pre-season game, the hype for rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy was escalating. He tossed a pair of touchdowns and nearly 200 yards in limited work. The progression after that was a nightmare for Vikings fans. McCarthy missed practice after reporting knee soreness. The following day, head coach Kevin O’Connell announced that McCarthy would require surgery. Then, another day later we learned that a full meniscus repair was necessary and McCarthy’s season was over.
As I tend to focus on player value in dynasty leagues, I immediately began considering McCarthy’s future and was taxing my memory for similar situations in recent years. I couldn’t think of many, and for good reason…
J.J. McCarthy is the 1st QB drafted in the 1st round in the common draft era (since 1967) to miss his entire rookie season due to injury
— Doug Clawson (@doug_clawson) August 14, 2024
While this is shocking, there have been other quarterbacks to see little to no work as a rookie. In the past four years, three first-round quarterbacks have played less than ten games. All three (Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance, and Jordan Love) gained value entering their second season, based on our ADP. Missing the entire season is obviously a different situation, but given McCarthy’s young age and the Vikings’ weapons, I do expect him to maintain or even gain value by next off-season.
Of course, this also leads to a deeper look at the rest of the Vikings’ offense. New starter, veteran Sam Darnold, gets a clear value bump in superflex leagues, while Jordan Addison continues to lose dynasty value. Superstar Justin Jefferson has shown he is quarterback-proof, so there are no concerns with his ability to produce big-time fantasy numbers.
New Stud QBs
It was devastating news for McCarthy and the Vikings, but the other first-round rookie quarterbacks thrived this pre-season. By the time the NFL Draft arrived, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels has separated themselves as the top two options, and that continues to be true as the regular season is set to begin.
Williams starred in this year’s edition of Hard Knocks, showing off on the field and in the classroom. Daniels was quickly announced as the Commanders’ Week One starter, as if there was any doubt. Each of these signal callers have been valued as low-end QB1s already, overtaking veterans like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott, among others. We might just be entering a new golden age when it comes to quarterback value in dynasty leagues. The position now sports both depth and upside. Only one of the top 22 quarterbacks in our current ADP is over age 30, suggesting that most of these players are here to stay.
- Weekly Matchups: Four Playoff Must Starts - December 18, 2024
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