2024 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Michael Penix Jr, QB Washington
The 2023 NFL Draft was the year of the quarterback as three signal-callers went in the top four picks. CJ Stroud put on a show and had a rookie season for the ages, while Bryce Young was sunk by the anchor of ineptitude that was the Panthers offense. Unfortunately, for Colts fans and fantasy owners, Anthony Richardson was lost to injury early in the year.
This year’s class is strong again, with Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix leading the way. It is Michael Penix Jr and JJ McCarthy, though, who will be playing in the National Championship after leading their teams to an undefeated record.
You will hear A LOT during the draft cycle about Penix’s injury history. I won’t go into too much detail on that here, but we will touch on it.
Recruitment
Courtesy of 247 Sports.
Penix was not the top-tier QB prospect coming out of high school like some of his 2024 NFL Draft classmates. 247 Sports listed him as a three-star prospect and the 36th-ranked Pro-Style QB coming out in the 2018 recruiting class. His HS career stats read more like the season line from some of the nation’s top players.
Courtesy of MaxPreps
Penix’s recruiting process included Florida State and other schools before he committed to Indiana.
Collegiate Career
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
His time at Indiana was marred by injury, to say the least. Penix spent four years at Indiana and three as their full-time starter. In 2018 he tore the ACL in his right knee. In 2019 he suffered a dislocated sternoclavicular joint in his right arm and in 2020, he tore the ACL again in the same knee. In 2021, he separated his left shoulder at the AC joint.
So there we have it. Do those make him “injury prone” or is that just really bad luck? I will look at it like this: if a team that spends millions in injury research and prevention is willing to draft him at a spot that might see the front office fired in a few short years if he is a bust, I am okay with it.
Penix put on an aerial show that lasted two years at the University of Washington, becoming the first QB since Patrick Mahomes to throw for over 4,500 yards in back-to-back seasons in college football. The ball flies out of his hand, whether on a rope downfield or when he drops it in over a defender.
Not bad company for Michael Penix Jr. pic.twitter.com/sGzBQAItCw
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 2, 2024
Penix also does very well at moving around the pocket. His stats might not show his ability as a runner but he can take advantage of what the defense gives him and gain yards if a play breaks down. Running is not his preferred method of moving the ball downfield but he is not a statue in the pocket.
Athletic Profile
Measurements from ESPN.
Again, Penix is a better athlete than many might believe. He does not have the eye-popping rushing stats or physical attributes of a Jayden Daniels but he isn’t stiff by any means. He can create room in the pocket and utilize his arm to buy time as his receivers get open.
Michael Penix Jr. scramble drill and…oh my goodness. Devin Culp toe-tapper. @UW_Football pic.twitter.com/6CwogkTJJc
— Alyssa Charlston (@Alyssacharlston) November 5, 2023
Strengths
- Arm talent. Teams are going to nitpick his throwing style. He has that Michael Vick flick of the wrist where he can laser the ball 60 yards downfield. In the second biggest game of his career, Penix started the second half of the game 11-11 on passes.
- Deep ball. He does a great job with deep ball placement and accuracy. He throws his WRs open and puts the ball where it needs to be along the sideline or in the end zone.
- Athleticism – he is adept at moving in the pocket to buy time for his receivers.
- He gives his receivers the chance to make a play on the ball and shows trust in back shoulder throws and contested catch situations
Be sure to check out our 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
Weaknesses
- He needs to take speed off his fastball at times. His intermediate throws at times leave something to be desired.
- Like many collegiate signal-callers, he will need to speed up his processing as he ascends to the next level.
- Issues with his mechanics and footwork. He will throw flat-footed at times and there have been concerns about his throwing motion. Though this feels nitpicking and may be “right-hand” bias scouting.
Michael Penix’s best plays from last night, but as a righty (for the people still rattled by the lefty throwing motion) https://t.co/PYtjZB86nv pic.twitter.com/TojhcAuvwV
— Alex Barth (@RealAlexBarth) January 2, 2024
Draft Value
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
The positional value will always have teams chasing QBs. Pickett was pushed up in the 2022 draft as one of the few QB teams deemed worthy in that draft. Penix will do well in the scouting process and during the draft season. He will make the big-time throws during his pro day and wow scouts with his arm. Be ready for that hype video moment when he rolls out and uncorks that deep ball.
The consensus currently has him going to the Vikings with the 43rd pick in the draft. I don’t think he will be there on the board in round two. It would be a huge win for a team to move up in the back of round one if somehow Penix even made it that far. Getting that fifth-year option on a QB is huge for a franchise.
Dynasty Outlook
Those who play in one-QB leagues can wait on Penix. Likely he will be taken after Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and possibly Heisman winner Jayden Daniels or Bo Nix in the NFL Draft. Fantasy owners will chase the upside of Daniels and his rushing ability in fantasy drafts allowing value to slide to savvy owners willing to wait.
There are some talented WRs in this year’s draft who will likely push down some of the signal-callers. Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, and Penix’s UW teammate Rome Odunze will climb in drafts. With the Sam LaPorta breakout, expect TE Brock Bowers to be in demand during rookie drafts too.
Here at DLF, our rookie rankings have Penix as the fifth-ranked QB after Williams, Maye, Nix, and Daniels. In superflex drafts, you will likely need to draft Penix in round one and he is perfect for an established team in need of another QB.
Prepare for a draft season of nitpicking Penix’s medical concerns and left-handed delivery. You will see that highlight pro day clip ad nauseam all off-season when he throws that deep ball. Penix is going to be a competitive and fun to watch QB at the next level.
Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
